MS-ESS3-5NGSS*ScienceEarth and Space ScienceGrades 6-8
MS-ESS3-5: Asking Questions About the Causes of Rising Global Temperatures
In plain English: MS-ESS3-5 is the NGSS middle school performance expectation that asks students to ask questions that clarify the evidence for what has caused the rise in global temperatures over the past century. Students question graphs and tables of temperature, carbon dioxide, methane, sunlight and volcanic activity, and find that human activities play the major role. It is usually taught in grades 6-8 Earth science.
Ask questions to clarify evidence of the factors that have caused the rise in global temperatures over the past century.
Clarification Statement: Examples of factors include human activities (such as fossil fuel combustion, cement production, and agricultural activity) and natural processes (such as changes in incoming solar radiation or volcanic activity). Examples of evidence can include tables, graphs, and maps of global and regional temperatures, atmospheric levels of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, and the rates of human activities. Emphasis is on the major role that human activities play in causing the rise in global temperatures.
Next Generation Science Standards · Disciplinary Core Idea: Earth and Human Activity · Official standard
Earth's average surface temperature has risen over the past century, and this lesson asks students to do what scientists do with that evidence: ask questions until they understand what the evidence shows and what caused the rise. A clarifying question asks what a piece of evidence means, how it was gathered or what else could explain it. A factor is a possible cause. The factors students test are human activities, such as fossil fuel combustion (burning coal, oil and natural gas), cement production and agriculture, and natural processes, such as changes in incoming solar radiation (the sun's energy reaching Earth) and volcanic eruptions. Key terms are defined at first use: a greenhouse gas is a gas, such as carbon dioxide (CO₂) or methane, that absorbs heat given off by Earth's surface and slows its escape to space; ppm (parts per million) and ppb (parts per billion) say how many molecules of a gas are in every million or billion molecules of air; a temperature anomaly is the difference between a temperature and an average for a chosen set of years, called the baseline.
The NGSS Clarification Statement says: "Examples of factors include human activities (such as fossil fuel combustion, cement production, and agricultural activity) and natural processes (such as changes in incoming solar radiation or volcanic activity). Examples of evidence can include tables, graphs, and maps of global and regional temperatures, atmospheric levels of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane, and the rates of human activities. Emphasis is on the major role that human activities play in causing the rise in global temperatures." MS-ESS3-5 has no official Assessment Boundary. Following the Clarification Statement, the lesson stresses the major role of human activities, which is the conclusion of the scientific evidence. Real data on this page are rounded and named by source: NOAA's Mauna Loa CO₂ record, ice-core CO₂ and methane levels, IPCC and World Meteorological Organization temperature findings, NASA satellite measurements of the sun, the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption and Global Carbon Project emission estimates. Town records and lab results are invented for teaching and labeled as invented. Students do the practice of asking questions: they write, sort and improve questions, then use evidence to answer them.
Learning Objectives
By the end of this lesson, students will be able to:
Ask clarifying questions about what a temperature, gas or activity data set measured, where, how and over what time
Read graphs and tables of global temperature, CO₂, methane and the rates of human activities, and compute simple rates of change
Ask and answer questions that test natural factors (the sun and volcanoes) and human factors (fossil fuels, cement, agriculture) as causes of the rise
Explain, using evidence, why human activities play the major role in the rise in global temperatures over the past century
Tell apart questions science can answer with data from questions about values and decisions
Prior Knowledge Required
Students should already be comfortable with:
Showing weather data in tables and graphs 3-ESS2-1
How the atmosphere, hydrosphere, geosphere and biosphere interact 5-ESS2-1
Rates and unit rates, such as ppm per year 6.RP.A.2
The difference between weather (day to day) and climate (the average over many years)
"A headline says: 'Earth is warmer than it was 100 years ago.' Before you believe or reject it, what would you want to ask? Write three questions."
Collect questions on the board without answering them. Group them: questions about what was measured, how and where; questions about what could have caused the change; and questions about what people should do. Tell students that today they will answer the first two kinds with evidence, and that the third kind is a decision for people, informed by science.
Direct Instruction15-20 minutes
Question the evidence, then the factors. Define clarifying question, factor, greenhouse gas, ppm, ppb, temperature anomaly and baseline (see the overview). Explain the cause in one sentence: greenhouse gases let sunlight in but slow the escape of heat from Earth's surface, so adding more of them warms the surface. Show Diagram 1 and the table below, then Diagram 2, and work through the examples, modeling the question first and the evidence second each time.
Yearly average CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii (NOAA, rounded to the nearest ppm)
Year
CO₂ (ppm)
1960
317
1970
326
1980
339
1990
354
2000
370
2010
390
2020
414
2024
425
Clarifying a temperature graph (global and regional records)
A graph shows global average temperature as anomalies. The IPCC (the United Nations science panel on climate) reports that 2011-2020 was about 1.1 °C warmer than the 1850-1900 average. The World Meteorological Organization reported 2024 as the warmest year in the record.
Result: Questions and answers: What is the baseline? The 1850-1900 average. What was measured? Air temperature over land and the temperature of the sea surface. From how many places? Thousands of land stations, ships and ocean buoys. Do other groups agree? NASA, NOAA and the UK Met Office each build their own record, and all show nearly the same rise. Regional maps add detail: some places, such as the Arctic, warmed far more than the global average.
CO₂ in the air (Mauna Loa and ice cores)
Diagram 1 and the table show yearly average CO₂ measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, by NOAA (rounded). Air bubbles trapped in old ice, drilled out as ice cores, show about 280 ppm before 1800.
Result: In the 1960s CO₂ rose 326 - 317 = 9 ppm in 10 years, about 0.9 ppm a year. In the 2010s it rose 414 - 390 = 24 ppm, about 2.4 ppm a year, so the rise is speeding up. A clarifying question: "Is Mauna Loa just one place?" Answer: stations from Alaska to the South Pole show the same rise, so it is a global change.
Testing a natural factor: the sun
Question: did the sun send more energy to Earth while Earth warmed? Since 1978, satellites have measured incoming solar radiation above the atmosphere.
Result: The satellite data show the sun's output rising and falling only slightly over each 11-year sunspot cycle, with no upward trend, while global temperature kept rising. A factor that did not increase cannot explain an increase, so the sun is not the cause of the recent warming.
Testing a natural factor: volcanoes
Question: do eruptions warm or cool Earth, and for how long? After Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines erupted in 1991, a haze of tiny sulfur droplets spread around the world in the upper atmosphere.
Result: Global temperature fell about 0.5 °C in 1992 and recovered within about two years. The haze reflects sunlight back to space, so large eruptions cause short cooling, not a century of warming. Volcanoes do release CO₂, but each year about 1% or less of what human activities release.
Rates of human activities: fossil fuels and cement
The Global Carbon Project estimates that burning fossil fuels and making cement released about 9 billion tonnes of CO₂ in 1960 and about 37 billion tonnes in 2023. Cement adds CO₂ two ways: from the fuel burned in the kiln and from heating limestone, which gives off CO₂.
Result: 37 ÷ 9 ≈ 4.1, so the yearly release grew about 4 times. Clarifying question: "How do we know the extra CO₂ in the air came from these sources?" Carbon from fossil fuels has a chemical signature, and scientists find more of it in the air each year. Roughly half of the CO₂ released stays in the air; the ocean and plants take up the rest.
Sum up: the human factors rose in step with the warming and act in the right direction, and the natural factors either did not rise (the sun) or cool Earth only briefly (volcanoes). That is why scientists conclude that human activities have played the major role. Remind students that asking questions is how scientists reached that conclusion, and that it is still how they refine the details.
Guided Practice15 minutes
Pairs question an invented record from one weather station in the town of Brookfield. First they write at least four clarifying questions. Then the teacher hands out the answer card, and pairs decide what the record does and does not show.
Invented data: Brookfield weather station, average yearly temperature by decade
Decade
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010s
Average (°C)
12.4
12.3
12.6
13.2
13.5
13.8
14.3
Find the total change from the 1950s to the 2010s.
Write four clarifying questions about the record: what was measured, where, how, and what else could explain the change.
Answer card (invented): in 1978 the station was moved from a grassy field to the edge of a new parking lot. A rural station 20 km away that never moved shows a rise of 1.1 °C over the same decades. How much of Brookfield's rise might come from the move and the pavement?
Write two sentences: what the Brookfield record shows about local and global warming, and why scientists use thousands of stations, ships and buoys instead of one station.
Independent Practice10-15 minutes
Five-question challenge. Using the Mauna Loa table, Diagram 2 and Example 5, each student writes five questions, one of each type: (1) what exactly was measured, (2) how or where it was measured, (3) over what time span, (4) what other factor could explain it, and (5) what data would show whether a human activity and the temperature changed at the same rate. Students star the one question whose answer would most help decide the cause, and explain their choice in two sentences.
Closure5 minutes
Exit ticket: "Name one natural factor and the question that ruled it out as the main cause. Then name one human activity and the evidence that links it to the warming." Return to the warm-up questions and mark which ones the class can now answer.
Teacher note: some students arrive worried about climate change, and others hear different views at home. Keep the focus on evidence and on good questions, acknowledge feelings, and point out that many people, including engineers and scientists, are working on solutions. What society should do is not part of this standard; designing ways to reduce human impacts is the focus of MS-ESS3-3.
Differentiation Strategies
For Struggling Students
Give question stems: "What does ___ mean on this graph?", "Where was ___ measured?", "Did ___ change at the same time as ___?", "What else could cause ___?"
Work with one evidence card at a time and cover all but two rows of each table
Pair each new word (anomaly, baseline, ppm) with a picture or a worked number on a word wall
For Advanced Students
Ask what pattern of warming a brighter sun would cause in the upper atmosphere and what more greenhouse gases would cause, and compare with the observed pattern (the lower atmosphere warming while the upper atmosphere cools)
Have students compare the yearly rise of CO₂ at Mauna Loa with the yearly CO₂ release in Example 5 and form a question about where the rest of the CO₂ goes
Ask students to find a regional temperature map for their state and write three questions comparing it with the global record
Assessment Guidance
What to Look For
Check that students ask questions that can be answered with data: about units, baselines, locations, time spans, measurement methods and other possible factors. Strong work tests each natural factor with a specific question and uses evidence to rule it in or out, and names the human activities whose rates rose in step with the warming. Watch for questions that are really opinions ("Is this scary?"), for confusing one cold season with a long-term trend, and for treating two lines that rise together as proof without asking how one could cause the other.
02
Classroom Activities
3 Activities
1
Evidence Card Question Stations
25 minGroups of 3-4
Six stations each show one piece of evidence on the front of a card. At each station, groups write two clarifying questions on sticky notes before turning the card over, where an answer card gives more evidence. Groups rotate every 4 minutes.
The 6 Evidence Cards
Global temperature: a line graph of global temperature anomalies since 1880 from NASA, rising most steeply since about 1970.
CO₂: Diagram 1, the Mauna Loa record.
Fossil fuels and cement: the Global Carbon Project estimates in Example 5.
Agriculture: a statement that methane in the air is now more than double its level before 1800, with a photo of cattle and a flooded rice field.
The sun: a graph of satellite measurements of the sun's output since 1978, showing the 11-year ups and downs.
Volcanoes: a timeline of large eruptions since 1900, including Pinatubo in 1991.
Answer Cards (back of each card)
Several groups (NASA, NOAA, the UK Met Office) build separate records from land stations, ships and buoys; their results nearly match.
Stations around the world show the same rise; ice cores show about 280 ppm before 1800.
Fossil-fuel carbon has a chemical signature that is increasing in the air.
Cattle digestion and flooded rice fields release methane, as do landfills and leaks from natural gas wells and pipes.
The sun shows no upward trend since 1978.
Large eruptions cooled Earth for a year or two; they did not cause lasting warming.
Discussion Questions
Which of your questions did the answer cards answer, and which are still open?
Which two cards together best rule out a natural factor? Explain.
Which card shows the rate of a human activity, and why does the rate matter, not only the amount?
Modification for Distance Learning
Put each card on a slide, with the answer card on the next slide. Students post questions in a shared document before the answer slide is shown.
2
Bottle Model: Ask Before You Trust
30 minGroups of 3
Groups run a simple model of the greenhouse effect, then question their own evidence. A model is a simpler version of a real system that lets us test an idea. One bottle holds ordinary air and the other holds extra CO₂ made from baking soda and vinegar.
Procedure
Safety: wear goggles while pouring vinegar. The teacher places the lamp, and nobody touches the bulb, which gets hot. Leave both bottles uncapped so that gas from the reaction can escape. Wipe up spills right away.
Bottle A: pour in 100 mL of water. Bottle B: add 1 tablespoon of baking soda, then pour in 100 mL of vinegar, and wait until the fizzing stops (about 2 minutes). The CO₂ is heavier than air and fills the bottle from the bottom.
After the fizzing has stopped, push a thermometer through a ball of clay and rest the clay loosely on each bottle's mouth so the tip hangs in the middle of the bottle. Leave a small gap at the edge so the bottle is never sealed. Set the lamp between the bottles, 30 cm from each.
Turn on the lamp and record both temperatures every 2 minutes for 16 minutes.
Sample Data (invented)
Bottle A (air): 21.4 °C at the start, 25.2 °C after 16 minutes. Bottle B (extra CO₂): 21.0 °C at the start, 25.6 °C after 16 minutes.
Teacher note: real results vary from group to group, and some groups see little or no difference, partly because CO₂ slowly mixes out of an open bottle. Treat any result as evidence to question, as the discussion below does, not as proof.
Discussion Questions
Find each bottle's rise. How much more did Bottle B warm?
Bottle B started 0.4 °C cooler. The baking soda and vinegar reaction takes in heat. What question does this raise about the comparison?
Write two more clarifying questions about this evidence, then say how the class could answer each one (for example, by running two bottles of plain air side by side).
What can this model show, and why is the real-world evidence (Diagram 1, Example 5) much stronger evidence about Earth?
Modification for Distance Learning
Show a video of the setup or use the sample data, and have students write and post their questions before the class discusses them.
3
Question Sort and Upgrade
20 minPairs
Pairs sort 12 question cards into three piles: questions that clarify evidence, questions that test a possible factor, and questions about values or decisions. Then they upgrade two weak questions into strong ones.
The 12 Question Cards
What does an anomaly of zero mean on this graph?
Were the thermometers on land, at sea or both?
How was CO₂ measured before 1958?
Did the sun's output change during the same years?
How many large eruptions happened in those decades?
Do records from other groups show the same rise?
Did methane rise as cattle herds and rice fields grew?
Should our school replace its diesel buses?
Is it fair for some countries to cut emissions more than others?
Has cement making grown faster than other CO₂ sources?
Does the Arctic map use the same baseline as the global graph?
Should people stop eating beef?
Answer Key
Clarify the evidence: cards 1, 2, 3, 6 and 11. Test a possible factor: cards 4, 5, 7 and 10. Values or decisions: cards 8, 9 and 12.
Upgrade Round
Pairs rewrite these weak questions so that data could answer them: "Is global warming bad?" and "Are scientists sure?" For example, "Is global warming bad?" could become "How much has sea level risen since 1900, and how fast is it rising now?"
Challenge Variation
Pairs pick one question from the "test a factor" pile, find a real graph or table that answers it (from NOAA, NASA or another science agency) and present the answer in one minute.
03
Diagrams & Visual Aids
2 diagrams
Diagram 1: CO₂ in the Air at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, 1960-2024 (NOAA, to Scale)
Real data, rounded: yearly averages of CO₂ measured at Mauna Loa Observatory by NOAA, every 10 years from 1960 plus 2024. The dashed line shows the level of about 280 ppm before 1800, measured in air bubbles from ice cores. The vertical axis starts at 260 ppm so the changes are easy to see.
Diagram 2: Five Factors, the Question to Ask About Each, and What the Evidence Shows
The factors named in the Clarification Statement, with one clarifying question for each and a short answer from the evidence in this lesson. The human factors rose along with the warming and push temperature up; the natural factors either did not rise or cool Earth only briefly.
04
Homework Assignment
~30 min
MS-ESS3-5 Homework: Questioning the Evidence for Rising Temperatures
Directions: Data from NOAA, NASA and the IPCC are real and rounded; town and lab data are invented for practice. For every question you write, say what data would answer it.
Part 1: Questioning Graphs and Tables (Problems 1-2)
Use the Mauna Loa table or Diagram 1. (a) Find the average rise in ppm per year from 1980 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2020. (b) Is the rise speeding up, slowing down or steady? (c) Write two clarifying questions about this record, and say what information would answer each.
Invented regional data, similar to the real pattern: warming from the 1951-1980 average to the 2010s was about 3.0 °C in the Arctic, 2.2 °C in northern Canada, 0.8 °C in the central United States and 0.6 °C over the tropical Pacific Ocean. (a) How many times as much did the Arctic warm as the tropical Pacific? (b) Write three clarifying questions about a map made from these data. (c) Explain why a map of one region and a graph of the global average can both be true.
Part 2: Testing Factors (Problems 3-4)
Ice cores show methane at about 700 ppb before 1800; today it is about 1,900 ppb. (a) How many times higher is methane now? Round to one decimal place. (b) List three human activities that release methane. (c) Write two questions that would help clarify how much of the rise each activity caused, and say what data would answer them.
A website says, "The sun is the main cause of global warming." Satellite data show the sun's output at about 1,361 W/m² (watts per square meter) on average, rising and falling by about 1 W/m² over each 11-year cycle, with no upward trend since 1978. (a) About what percent of the average is 1 W/m²? (b) Write two clarifying questions you would ask the website's author. (c) Use the satellite data to answer the claim in two or three sentences.
Part 3: Questioning a Model and Explaining (Problems 5-6)
Group 4 did the bottle model and wrote: "We used a 2 L bottle for air and a 500 mL bottle for CO₂. We took one reading after 5 minutes. The CO₂ bottle was 2.5 °C warmer. This proves humans cause global warming." (a) Write four clarifying questions about this evidence. (b) Rewrite their procedure so the comparison is fair. (c) Explain what a bottle model can and cannot tell us about Earth.
Write a paragraph that explains the major role of human activities in the rise in global temperatures over the past century. Use at least two pieces of evidence from this lesson, name one natural factor and the evidence that rules it out as the main cause, and end with one question you still have and the data that would answer it.
Rubric
Criterion
Full Credit (2 pts)
Partial Credit (1 pt)
Clarifying Questions
Questions are specific and answerable with data, and each names the data that would answer it
Questions are general or opinion-based, or the data are not named
Reading Data
Rates, ratios and percents are correct, with units
One calculation or unit error
Testing Factors
Uses evidence to rule natural factors in or out and links human activities to the rise
Names factors without evidence
Explanation
States the major role of human activities with two pieces of evidence and an open question
Gives the conclusion with one piece of evidence or none
05
Quiz: 20 Questions
Interactive, with answers
Instructions
Data credited to NOAA, NASA or the IPCC are real and rounded; town and lab data are invented. Your score updates as you answer, and Reset quiz clears everything so you or your students can try again. Short-answer questions show a model answer.
Multiple choice: pick an option to check it. Short answer: write your answer, then reveal the model answer.
0 of 20 answered · 0 correct
Question 1 of 20 · Multiple Choice
A graph shows global average temperature anomalies rising since 1900. Which question would best clarify this evidence?
Answer: C
An anomaly is measured from a baseline average, so knowing the baseline years tells you what "zero" means on the graph. Choice A asks about the design, not the data. Choice B is about one place and one season, which is weather, and choice D is a decision for society, not a question about the evidence.
Question 2 of 20 · Multiple Choice
A year has a global temperature anomaly of +0.8 °C. What does this mean?
Answer: A
An anomaly is the difference from the baseline average. Choice B compares with the previous year instead of the baseline. Choice C confuses the anomaly with the temperature itself, and choice D describes a daily change, which is weather.
Question 3 of 20 · Multiple Choice
CO₂ at Mauna Loa was about 354 ppm in 1990 and about 414 ppm in 2020. What was the average rise per year?
Answer: D
The rise was 414 - 354 = 60 ppm over 2020 - 1990 = 30 years, so 60 ÷ 30 = 2 ppm a year. Choice A is the total rise, not the rise per year. Choice B divides the 2020 value by 30 years, and choice C divides the years by the rise (30 ÷ 60).
Question 4 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Suppose a brighter sun had caused the recent warming. What would satellite measurements since 1978 show?
Answer: B
If more sunlight caused the warming, the sun's output would have to rise. The real satellite data show the 11-year ups and downs with no upward trend, the result in choice A, so this question rules the sun out as the main cause. Choices C and D are not predictions about the sun.
Question 5 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Imagine a decade with three very large volcanic eruptions. What would scientists predict for global temperature in those years?
Answer: C
Large eruptions put sulfur haze high in the air, which reflects sunlight and cools Earth for a year or two, so the record would show short dips. Choices A and D describe lasting warming, which eruptions do not cause, and choice B ignores that the haze spreads around the world.
Question 6 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Which human activity adds methane, a greenhouse gas, to the atmosphere?
Answer: D
Cattle release methane as they digest grass and feed, which is one way agriculture adds greenhouse gases. Choices A, B and C do not add methane; planting trees takes CO₂ out of the air.
Question 7 of 20 · Multiple Choice
A student reads that cement production adds CO₂ to the air. Which question would best clarify this evidence?
Answer: A
Asking how much CO₂ each tonne releases connects cement to the amount of gas added, which is the evidence the claim rests on. Choices B and C ask about cement as a material, and choice D asks about opinions.
Question 8 of 20 · Multiple Choice
A town weather station shows a 2 °C rise since 1950. Which question best clarifies whether this record matches the global warming trend?
Answer: B
A station that moved, or that new pavement and buildings grew around, can show extra local warming, so this question checks whether the record measures the same thing all along. Choices A, C and D do not affect what the record means.
Question 9 of 20 · Multiple Choice
CO₂ and global temperature both rose over the past century. Which extra evidence best shows that the CO₂ rise helps cause the warming, and is not a coincidence?
Answer: D
Two things rising together could be a coincidence. Lab measurements showing that CO₂ absorbs the heat Earth gives off explain how one causes the other. Choices A and C are only about units, and choice B is about how the graph is drawn.
Question 10 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Ice cores show CO₂ at about 280 ppm before 1800, and Mauna Loa measured about 421 ppm in 2023. By about what percent has CO₂ risen?
Answer: B
The rise is 421 - 280 = 141 ppm, and 141 ÷ 280 ≈ 0.50, about 50%. Choice A divides by the 2023 value instead of the starting value. Choice C reads the 141 ppm rise as a percent, and choice D reads the ratio 421 ÷ 280 ≈ 1.5 as the percent rise.
Question 11 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Which question is about values and choices, not one science can answer by collecting data?
Answer: C
Whether to ban something is a decision that depends on values and costs; science can inform it but not settle it. Choices A, B and D can each be answered by measuring.
Question 12 of 20 · Multiple Choice
A student says, "Last winter was the coldest in 20 years here, so global warming has stopped." Which question best clarifies the evidence?
Answer: A
Global warming is a long-term change in the average of the whole planet. One season in one place is weather, and it can be cold even while the global average rises. Choices B and D ask more about the same winter, and choice C is about feelings.
Question 13 of 20 · Multiple Choice
In a bottle model, the bottle with extra CO₂ warmed 1 °C more under a lamp than the bottle of air. Which question checks whether the test was fair?
Answer: D
A bottle closer to the lamp gets more energy, so a fair test keeps that distance the same. Choices A, B and C do not change how much energy each bottle gets.
Question 14 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Carbon dioxide is about 420 ppm of the air. What does this mean?
Answer: C
ppm means parts per million, so 420 of every 1,000,000 molecules of air are CO₂, which is 0.042%. Choices A and D move the decimal point (42% and 4.2% would be 420,000 ppm and 42,000 ppm). Choice B drops the "per million."
Question 15 of 20 · Short Answer
A news article shows a graph of methane in the air rising since 1980 and says, "Farms are warming the planet." Write three questions that would clarify this evidence.
Sample questions: (1) Where and how was the methane measured, and is the rise the same around the world? (2) How much of the methane comes from farms compared with landfills, leaks from natural gas wells and pipes, and natural wetlands? (3) How much does methane add to warming compared with CO₂, so that we know whether farms are a large or a small part of the cause? Each question can be answered with data, and together they test whether the headline is complete.
Question 16 of 20 · Short Answer
Here are four student questions about Diagram 1. Pick the two that best clarify the evidence, explain why, and rewrite one of the weak ones. (a) "Why is Hawaii so far away?" (b) "Do stations in other places show the same rise?" (c) "Is CO₂ bad?" (d) "Why does the graph start at 260 ppm instead of 0?"
The best are (b), because it checks whether one station shows a global change, and (d), because the axis choice changes how steep the rise looks, so readers need to know it. (a) is about geography, not the evidence. (c) is too vague; a stronger version is "How much heat does the extra CO₂ trap, and how much warming does that cause?"
Question 17 of 20 · Short Answer
If the sun caused global warming, the whole atmosphere, including the high upper layer, should warm. Measurements show the lower atmosphere warming while the upper atmosphere has cooled. What does this suggest about the cause, and what question would you ask next?
This pattern does not fit a brighter sun, which would warm both layers. It fits more greenhouse gases, which trap heat in the lower atmosphere so that less of it reaches the upper layer. (Loss of ozone also cools the upper layer.) A good next question: "Do climate models with only natural factors show this pattern, or only models that include greenhouse gases?"
Question 18 of 20 · Short Answer
Using the Mauna Loa table, find the average yearly CO₂ rise from 1970 to 1990 and from 1990 to 2010. What question about human activities does the change in rate raise?
From 1970 to 1990: (354 - 326) ÷ 20 = 1.4 ppm a year. From 1990 to 2010: (390 - 354) ÷ 20 = 1.8 ppm a year. The rise sped up. A question it raises: "Did the burning of fossil fuels and other human sources of CO₂ also speed up over those years?" Example 5 shows that yearly emissions did grow a lot since 1960.
Question 19 of 20 · Short Answer
You want to find out whether agriculture has played a role in the rise in global temperatures. What data would you ask for? Name at least three data sets and say what each would show.
Sample: (1) Methane and nitrous oxide levels in the air over time, from ice cores and modern stations, to see whether these gases rose. (2) Rates of farm activities over the same years, such as the number of cattle, the area of flooded rice fields and the amount of fertilizer used, to see whether they rose at the same time. (3) Measurements of the gases released by a herd or a field, to find how much each activity adds. (4) Also accept forest area cleared for farms, since clearing releases CO₂.
Question 20 of 20 · Short Answer
Write two or three sentences that explain why scientists conclude that human activities play the major role in the rise in global temperatures. Use one human factor and one natural factor.
Sample: CO₂ in the air has risen from about 280 ppm before 1800 to over 420 ppm, as the burning of fossil fuels grew, and the extra carbon carries a fossil-fuel signature; CO₂ traps heat, so this pushes temperatures up. Meanwhile, the sun's output has shown no upward trend since 1978, and volcanoes cool Earth only briefly. The natural factors cannot explain the rise, and the human ones can, so human activities play the major role.
0 of 20 answered · 0 correct
06
Frequently Asked Questions
10 Questions
What does MS-ESS3-5 mean?
MS-ESS3-5 asks students to ask questions that clarify the evidence for the factors that caused global temperatures to rise over the past century. The code means Middle School, Earth and Space Science, core idea 3 (Earth and Human Activity), performance expectation 5.
What grade is MS-ESS3-5 taught in?
It is a grades 6-8 standard, usually taught in an Earth science unit on human impacts or weather and climate, after students know the difference between weather and climate.
What is a clarifying question in science?
It is a question that helps you understand a piece of evidence: what was measured, how and where, over what time, what the units and baseline are, and what else could explain the result. Good clarifying questions can be answered with data.
How do scientists know that human activities are causing global warming?
Several lines of evidence point the same way. CO₂ and methane in the air rose as people burned more fossil fuels and expanded farming, and the extra carbon carries a fossil-fuel signature. Lab measurements show these gases trap heat. Natural factors were tested too: the sun has not grown brighter since satellite measurements began in 1978, and volcanoes cool Earth only for a year or two.
Could the sun be causing global warming?
Not the warming of recent decades. Satellites have measured the sun's output since 1978, and it rises and falls only slightly over each 11-year cycle with no upward trend, while Earth kept warming.
Hasn't Earth's climate changed naturally before?
Yes. Over tens of thousands of years, slow changes in Earth's orbit have brought ice ages and warm periods. Those changes were much slower than the rise of the past century, and the natural factors that act today (the sun and volcanoes) do not explain the recent rise, while human activities do.
Does MS-ESS3-5 ask students what society should do about climate change?
No. MS-ESS3-5 is about questioning the evidence for the causes. Choices about what to do involve values and costs, which science informs but does not decide. Designing ways to monitor and reduce human impacts is the focus of MS-ESS3-3.
How can teachers handle worry or disagreement about climate change?
Keep the focus on evidence and questions, let students voice concerns, and treat every honest question as worth answering with data. Point out that many people, including scientists and engineers, are working on solutions. Avoid frightening images; clear graphs and tables do the work.
What kinds of evidence does the Clarification Statement mention?
Tables, graphs and maps of global and regional temperatures; levels of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere; and the rates of human activities, such as fossil fuel use. This lesson uses each kind, from the Mauna Loa CO₂ record to regional warming data.
How does MS-ESS3-5 connect to high school?
In high school, HS-ESS2-4 uses a model of energy flowing into and out of Earth to explain changes in climate, and HS-ESS3-5 asks students to analyze data and climate model results to forecast the rate of climate change. The habit of questioning baselines, units and other possible causes carries straight into both.
07
Related Standards
6 standards
These standards connect to MS-ESS3-5: prerequisites to review first, parallel standards at the same level, and next steps that build on it.
Before this lesson
3-ESS2-1Prerequisite
Show weather data in tables and graphs to describe typical conditions in a season
Lesson coming soon
5-ESS2-1Prerequisite
Model ways the geosphere, biosphere, hydrosphere and atmosphere interact
Lesson coming soon
Alongside
MS-ESS3-4Parallel
Argue from evidence how population and per-capita resource use affect Earth's systems
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