MS-ESS3-4NGSS*ScienceEarth and Space ScienceGrades 6-8
MS-ESS3-4: Arguing from Evidence About Population, Consumption and Earth's Systems
In plain English: MS-ESS3-4 is the NGSS middle school performance expectation that asks students to construct an argument, backed by evidence, for how growth in human population and in per-capita (per person) use of natural resources changes Earth's systems. Students multiply people by use per person, compare rates of change and write claims with evidence and reasoning. It is usually taught in grades 6-8 Earth science.
Construct an argument supported by evidence for how increases in human population and per-capita consumption of natural resources impact Earth's systems.
Clarification Statement: Examples of evidence include grade-appropriate databases on human populations and the rates of consumption of food and natural resources (such as freshwater, mineral, and energy). Examples of impacts can include changes to the appearance, composition, and structure of Earth's systems as well as the rates at which they change. The consequences of increases in human populations and consumption of natural resources are described by science, but science does not make the decisions for the actions society takes.
Next Generation Science Standards · Disciplinary Core Idea: Earth and Human Activity · Official standard
Students build arguments about two causes of change on Earth: more people, and more use of resources by each person. A natural resource is something from Earth that people use, such as fresh water, minerals, energy sources and food. Per-capita consumption means the amount of a resource used per person, on average. The key idea is a multiplication: total use = population × use per person. Total use can rise because there are more people, because each person uses more, or both. Growing total use changes Earth's systems: the geosphere (rock, soil and land), the hydrosphere (water), the atmosphere (air) and the biosphere (living things). Students build an argument: a claim (an answer to a question), evidence (data that support it) and reasoning (why the evidence supports the claim), plus a rebuttal (a reply to an opposing claim, using evidence).
The NGSS Clarification Statement says: "Examples of evidence include grade-appropriate databases on human populations and the rates of consumption of food and natural resources (such as freshwater, mineral, and energy). Examples of impacts can include changes to the appearance, composition, and structure of Earth's systems as well as the rates at which they change. The consequences of increases in human populations and consumption of natural resources are described by science, but science does not make the decisions for the actions society takes." MS-ESS3-4 has no official Assessment Boundary. Two data sets on this page are real and rounded: the United Nations estimates of when world population reached each billion, and the United Nations World Water Development Report (2020) finding that global water use grew about six times over the past 100 years. Every other data set (towns, counties, quarries, reefs) is invented for teaching and labeled as invented. Students do the practice of engaging in argument from evidence: they compute totals and rates, pick out the factor that drove a change, and defend a claim against a rebuttal.
Learning Objectives
By the end of this lesson, students will be able to:
Calculate total resource use as population times per-capita consumption, and compare totals across years
Decide whether growth in population, growth in use per person, or both drove a change in total use
Describe how rising resource use changes the appearance, composition or structure of Earth's systems, and how fast
Construct an argument with a claim, evidence from a database, reasoning and a rebuttal
Separate what science can describe and forecast from the decisions a society makes
Prior Knowledge Required
Students should already be comfortable with:
The four Earth systems and how they interact 5-ESS2-1
Energy and fuels come from natural resources, and using them affects the environment 4-ESS3-1
Percent change and multiplying large whole numbers 7.RP.A.3
"A school's water bill went up 30% this year. One teacher says, 'We have more students.' Another says, 'Each student is using more water.' What information would you need to decide who is right? Could both be right?"
Collect ideas on the board. Students usually ask for the number of students and the water used per student. Point out that the bill depends on both, multiplied together. Tell the class that today they will use the same idea for whole towns and for the world, and connect it to changes in Earth's systems.
Direct Instruction15-20 minutes
Two causes, one multiplication. Define natural resource, per-capita consumption, the four Earth systems, claim, evidence, reasoning and rebuttal (see the overview). Show Diagram 1, the real UN milestones for world population, and ask what the spacing of the points tells us about the rate of growth. Then show Diagram 2: the area of each rectangle is total water use, its width is the number of people and its height is the use per person. Work through the examples below.
Total use = people × use per person (freshwater)
Invented town of Lakeview: in 2000, 44,000 people each used 300 L of water a day on average. In 2020, 66,000 people each used 250 L a day, because of low-flow toilets and showers.
Result: 2000: 44,000 × 300 = 13,200,000 L a day. 2020: 66,000 × 250 = 16,500,000 L a day. Population rose 50% and use per person fell by one sixth (about 17%), yet total use rose 25%. Using less per person slowed the growth, but did not stop it.
Real data: both factors grew (global freshwater)
The UN World Water Development Report (2020) says global water use grew about six times over the past 100 years. UN estimates put world population at about 1.9 billion in 1920 and about 7.8 billion in 2020.
Result: Population grew 7.8 ÷ 1.9 ≈ 4.1 times. If population alone explained it, water use would have grown about 4.1 times, not 6. So use per person also rose: 6 ÷ 4.1 ≈ 1.5 times. Both factors added to the pressure on rivers, lakes and groundwater.
Rates of change in the geosphere (mineral)
Invented Gravel County digs sand and gravel for roads and buildings. In 2000, 100,000 people used 5 t (tonnes) of gravel per person per year. In 2020, 120,000 people used 6 t per person per year.
Result: 2000: 100,000 × 5 = 500,000 t a year. 2020: 120,000 × 6 = 720,000 t a year, which is 44% more each year. The quarry pits change the shape and structure of the land, and in 2020 they grow 1.44 times as fast as in 2000. Both factors rose by 20%, and 1.2 × 1.2 = 1.44.
Writing the argument, with a rebuttal
Lakeview's well water level fell from 12 m to 19 m below the surface between 2000 and 2020 (invented). A resident says: "The wells dropped only because of drought." Rainfall records show an average of 820 mm a year in 2000-2009 and 835 mm in 2010-2019 (invented).
Result: Claim: Lakeview's growing total water use lowered its groundwater. Evidence: pumping rose from 13.2 to 16.5 million L a day while wells fell 7 m. Reasoning: water pumped out faster than rain refills it lowers the water stored underground. Rebuttal: rainfall did not fall (835 mm is slightly more than 820 mm), so drought does not explain the drop.
Science describes, society decides
Lakeview planners expect 82,500 people by 2040. Students forecast use if each person keeps using 250 L a day.
Result: 82,500 × 250 = 20,625,000 L a day, 25% more than in 2020. Science can forecast this and predict that wells will keep dropping. Whether to raise water prices, limit lawn watering or build a pipeline is a choice the community makes; science informs it but does not make it.
After each example, ask: "Which factor changed more, people or use per person? Which Earth system changed, and was it a change in appearance (how it looks), composition (what it is made of) or structure (how it is built or arranged)? How fast is it changing?"
Guided Practice15 minutes
Pairs analyze an invented database for Pine County, which gets most of its electricity from a natural gas power plant. Burning natural gas adds carbon dioxide to the air, and drilling for it changes the ground.
Invented database: Pine County population and home electricity use
Year
Population
Home electricity per person (kWh a year)
2000
80,000
3,600
2010
90,000
4,000
2020
100,000
4,200
Find the total home electricity use for each year (population × use per person).
Find the percent change from 2000 to 2020 for the population, for the use per person and for the total.
Did the total grow faster from 2000 to 2010 or from 2010 to 2020? Explain using the totals.
Name two Earth systems the power plant and the gas wells affect, and say whether each change is in appearance, composition or structure.
Write a one-sentence claim that names both factors.
Independent Practice10-15 minutes
Each student writes an argument with a claim, evidence, reasoning and a rebuttal from this invented database for the island of Kelo, where most families eat fish from the reef.
Invented database: Kelo island population, fish eaten and reef fish counts
Year
Population
Fish eaten per person (kg a year)
Reef fish per 100 m² (survey)
1995
20,000
30
85
2005
25,000
32
72
2009
28,000
33
63
2011
29,000
33
58
2025
32,000
35
40
A visitor claims: "The reef fish declined because of the big storm in 2010." Students compute the island's total fish catch in 1995 and 2025, describe how the fish count changed before and after 2010, and use the data to answer the visitor's claim. Their reasoning should explain why taking fish faster than they reproduce shrinks the population.
Closure5 minutes
Exit ticket: "Give one example where total resource use rose even though use per person fell, and one example where it rose even though the population did not grow." Return to the warm-up: both teachers could be right, and the multiplication shows how much each factor added.
Teacher note: keep the line between science and decisions clear. The data describe what is happening and forecast what may happen; what a town or country should do about it is a choice for its people, informed by science. Climate change itself is the focus of MS-ESS3-5, and designing ways to reduce impacts is the focus of MS-ESS3-3.
Differentiation Strategies
For Struggling Students
Give an organizer with three columns, People, Use per person and Total, and a sentence frame: "Total use rose because ___ rose by ___% and ___ changed by ___%."
Use round numbers first (1,000 people × 100 L) and draw each case as a rectangle on grid paper before using a calculator
Provide a word bank for the four Earth systems with a picture for each
For Advanced Students
Ask students to find the use per person that would keep a town's total use flat if its population grows 25%
Have students compare two countries with very different populations and use per person, and argue which adds more pressure on one resource
Ask students to find a real database (for example, their own water utility's yearly report) and test one claim from this lesson with it
Assessment Guidance
What to Look For
Check that students multiply population by use per person instead of adding, and that they compare the percent change of each factor before naming the main cause. Strong arguments state a claim that names a specific Earth system, cite numbers from the database with years and units, explain the cause and effect in the reasoning, and answer an opposing claim with evidence. Watch for students who treat a smaller use per person as proof that total use fell, and for arguments that slip from what the data show into what people should do.
02
Classroom Activities
3 Activities
1
Resource Database Stations
25 minGroups of 3-4
Four stations each hold a small invented database for one resource named in the Clarification Statement: freshwater, a mineral, energy and food. Groups compute totals, decide which factor drove the change and name the Earth systems affected. Groups rotate every 6 minutes.
Station Cards (all data invented)
Station A, freshwater: River City, 1990: 150,000 people, 350 L per person per day. 2020: 210,000 people, 320 L per person per day. A dam stores the water; the river below the dam now runs low each summer.
Station B, mineral (aluminum): Country B, 1990: 5 million people, 8 kg of aluminum per person per year (cans, cars, window frames). 2020: 6 million people, 12 kg per person. The aluminum is made from bauxite ore dug from open pits.
Station C, energy (firewood): Hill District, 1990: 20,000 people, 0.8 t of firewood per person per year. 2020: 34,000 people, 0.7 t per person (more efficient stoves). Forest covered 60% of the district in 1990 and 38% in 2020.
Station D, food (meat): Country D, 1990: 8 million people, 25 kg of meat per person per year. 2020: 10 million people, 45 kg per person. Grassland and forest were turned into pasture and fields of animal feed.
At Each Station
Find the total use in both years.
Find how many times larger each factor and the total became.
Decide which factor drove the change, or whether both did.
Name the Earth systems affected and the kind of change (appearance, composition, structure).
Discussion Questions
At two stations, use per person went down but total use still went up. Which two, and why did the total still rise?
At which station did use per person grow faster than the population?
Which station shows a change in the biosphere that you can see from the air? What number in the database shows it?
Modification for Distance Learning
Post the four station cards as slides. Groups work in breakout rooms and fill in a shared table, then the class compares answers.
2
Grid-Paper Area Model: Which Factor Added More?
20 minPairs
Pairs draw total water use as rectangles on grid paper, as in Diagram 2, and then cut the growth into pieces to see how much came from more people and how much from more use per person. Invented data for Harbor Town: in 2000, 30,000 people used 200 L per person per day; in 2020, 45,000 people used 240 L per person per day.
Procedure
Scale: 1 square across = 5,000 people, 1 square up = 20 L per person per day.
Draw the 2000 rectangle in pencil. Draw the 2020 rectangle with the same lower left corner, in a second color.
Shade three pieces of the 2020 rectangle that lie outside the 2000 rectangle in three colors: the strip to the right (more people, same use per person), the strip on top (more use per person, same people) and the small corner piece (both at once).
Count the squares in each piece. Each square stands for 5,000 × 20 = 100,000 L a day.
Discussion Questions
How many squares did the total grow by, and how many liters a day is that?
Which strip is bigger, the "more people" strip or the "more per person" strip? What does that say about the main cause?
Why does the corner piece exist? What would happen to it if only one factor had changed?
Challenge Variation
Pairs choose a use per person for 2040 that keeps Harbor Town's total use the same as in 2020 if the population reaches 60,000, draw it, and check it by multiplication.
3
Argument Gallery and "Science or Society?" Sort
25 minGroups of 3-4
Each group sorts 8 statement cards into two piles, then writes an argument poster from one station in Activity 1. Groups tour the posters and leave sticky-note rebuttals and questions.
The 8 Statement Cards
River City pumps 67.2 million L a day.
River City should build a second dam.
Forest cover in Hill District fell from 60% to 38%.
Families in Country D ought to eat less meat.
If use per person stays at 12 kg, Country B will need more bauxite as it grows.
Country B should recycle more cans, even if it costs more.
The river below the dam runs lower in summer than it did in 1990.
Hill District should ban firewood sales.
Procedure
Sort: "Science can describe or forecast this" or "This is a decision people make." Cards 1, 3, 5 and 7 describe or forecast; cards 2, 4, 6 and 8 are decisions.
Poster: one claim, at least two pieces of evidence with numbers and units, reasoning that names an Earth system, and a rebuttal to one opposing claim.
Gallery walk: each group leaves one sticky note per poster, either a question about the evidence or an opposing claim the poster must answer.
Discussion Questions
Card 5 is about the future. Why does it still belong in the science pile?
Which poster answered its sticky-note rebuttal best, and what evidence did it use?
Modification for Distance Learning
Use an online card sort and a shared slide deck for the posters, with comments in place of sticky notes.
03
Diagrams & Visual Aids
2 diagrams
Diagram 1: World Population Milestones, 1804-2022 (UN Estimates, to Scale)
Real data, rounded: the years in which world population reached each billion, from United Nations estimates (1 billion around 1804, 8 billion in November 2022). The line simply joins the milestones. Points that sit closer together in time mean that each new billion was added faster.
Diagram 2: Total Water Use as an Area Model, Lakeview (Invented Data)
Invented data from the Direct Instruction example, drawn to scale. Width is the number of people, height is liters per person per day, and area is total use. The 2020 rectangle is shorter but much wider, so its area is larger. The dashed outline shows the 2000 rectangle for comparison.
04
Homework Assignment
~30 min
MS-ESS3-4 Homework: Population, Consumption and Earth Systems
Directions: All town and county data are invented for practice; the world population milestones in Diagram 1 are real UN estimates. Show each multiplication and percent change. Write arguments in full sentences with a claim, evidence (numbers with units) and reasoning.
Part 1: Totals and Factors (Problems 1-2)
Pinecrest had 12,000 people in 2005, each using 200 L of water a day on average. In 2025 it had 18,000 people, each using 180 L a day. (a) Find the total daily water use in each year. (b) Find the percent change in population, in use per person and in total use. (c) Which factor drove the change in total use? Explain.
Maple Grove had 25,000 people in both 2010 and 2025. Electricity used per person rose from 3,000 kWh a year to 4,500 kWh a year as homes added air conditioning and electric cars. (a) Find the total electricity use in both years and the percent change. (b) A classmate says, "The town did not grow, so its impact on Earth did not grow." Write a rebuttal using your numbers. (c) The electricity comes from a coal power plant. Name two Earth systems affected.
Part 2: Reading a Database (Problems 3-4)
Use the real UN milestones in Diagram 1. (a) How many years did it take world population to grow from 1 billion to 2 billion? From 6 billion to 7 billion? (b) What do these two numbers show about the rate of population growth? (c) Explain why a faster-growing population can change Earth's systems faster even if use per person stays the same.
For each change, name the Earth system most directly affected and say whether its appearance, composition or structure changes: (a) a river is dammed to make a lake that supplies a growing city; (b) more cars on the roads add carbon dioxide and smog to the air; (c) a forest is cleared to build new neighborhoods; (d) the top of a hill is dug away to mine copper. Then (e) explain why the rate of each change matters, not only its size.
Part 3: Building and Judging Arguments (Problems 5-6)
A student wrote: "Claim: Our town is ruining Clear Lake. Evidence: The lake looks low. Reasoning: Towns ruin lakes." Invented data: the town had 15,000 people in 2000, each using 220 L a day, and 24,000 people in 2020, each using 230 L a day. All of it comes from Clear Lake. Rainfall was normal in both years. At the end of summer the lake held 900 million L in 2000 and 500 million L in 2020. (a) Name three weaknesses in the student's argument. (b) Find the town's total daily use in both years. (c) Write a stronger argument with a claim, evidence and reasoning.
A town of 30,000 people throws away 1.5 kg of trash per person per day. Planners expect 36,000 people in 10 years, each throwing away 1.6 kg a day. (a) Find the daily and yearly totals now and in 10 years, in tonnes for the yearly totals (1 t = 1,000 kg). (b) By what percent will the yearly total rise? (c) The landfill has room for 300,000 t more. About how many years would it last at the future rate? (d) Name two different actions the town could choose, and explain why science can inform the choice but cannot make it.
Rubric
Criterion
Full Credit (2 pts)
Partial Credit (1 pt)
Calculations
Totals found by multiplying people by use per person, percent changes correct, units given
One calculation or unit error
Factors and Earth Systems
Names the factor that drove the change, with evidence, and the Earth system and kind of change
Names a factor or a system without evidence
Argument
Claim, numerical evidence, cause-and-effect reasoning and a rebuttal that uses data
Claim and evidence, but reasoning or rebuttal missing
Science and Decisions
Keeps what the data show separate from what people should do
Mixes a decision into the scientific claim
05
Quiz: 20 Questions
Interactive, with answers
Instructions
Town and county data in these questions are invented; the world population figures are UN estimates. Your score updates as you answer, and Reset quiz clears everything so you or your students can try again. Short-answer questions show a model answer.
Multiple choice: pick an option to check it. Short answer: write your answer, then reveal the model answer.
0 of 20 answered · 0 correct
Question 1 of 20 · Multiple Choice
What does per-capita consumption of water mean?
Answer: B
Per capita means "per person," so per-capita consumption is the average use of a resource by one person. Choice A is the total use, which is per-capita use times the population. Choices C and D describe the supply and the population, not use per person.
Question 2 of 20 · Multiple Choice
A village has 5,000 people. Each person uses 120 L of water a day on average. How much water does the village use per day?
Answer: D
Total use = people × use per person = 5,000 × 120 = 600,000 L a day. Choice B adds the two numbers instead of multiplying. Choice A drops a zero and choice C adds an extra one.
Question 3 of 20 · Multiple Choice
For 10 years, a town's population stayed at 8,000 people, but electricity used per person rose from 4,000 kWh to 5,000 kWh a year. What happened to the town's total electricity use?
Answer: B
Total use went from 8,000 × 4,000 = 32,000,000 kWh to 8,000 × 5,000 = 40,000,000 kWh, a rise of 8,000,000 kWh. As a percent of the starting total, 8 ÷ 32 = 25%. Choice D divides by the new total, 40 million, instead of the starting one. Choice C forgets to multiply by the number of people, and choice A ignores use per person.
Question 4 of 20 · Multiple Choice
A city pumps more groundwater each year as it grows, and its wells must be drilled deeper. Which Earth system is changed most directly?
Answer: D
Groundwater is part of the hydrosphere, and pumping it faster than rain refills it lowers the amount stored underground. Choice A is tempting because the water sits in spaces in rock, but what changes most directly is the water. Choices B and C are not the system being drained.
Question 5 of 20 · Multiple Choice
A region digs more gravel each year to build roads and houses for a growing population, and its quarry pits grow deeper and wider. What kind of change to Earth's systems is this?
Answer: C
Quarrying removes rock and changes the appearance and structure of the land, which is part of the geosphere. Choice B is wrong because gravel forms over very long times, far slower than people dig it. Choices A and D name systems that the digging does not change most directly.
Question 6 of 20 · Multiple Choice
A student claims: "Our town's growth is draining the aquifer." Which sentence is evidence for this claim?
Answer: A
Evidence is data that connect to the claim: a measured drop in wells during the same years the population grew. Choice B is an opinion about what people should do, choice C is a feeling, and choice D is true but does not connect this town's growth to the aquifer.
Question 7 of 20 · Multiple Choice
From 2005 to 2025, a town's population rose from 10,000 to 12,000, and the food each person eats rose from 500 kg to 600 kg a year (invented). By what percent did the town's total food use rise?
Answer: C
Totals: 10,000 × 500 = 5,000,000 kg and 12,000 × 600 = 7,200,000 kg. The rise is 2,200,000 ÷ 5,000,000 = 44%. Choice B adds the two 20% rises instead of multiplying 1.2 × 1.2 = 1.44. Choice A counts only one factor, and choice D reads the ratio 1.44 as the percent rise.
Question 8 of 20 · Multiple Choice
UN estimates say world population passed 4 billion in 1974 and 8 billion in 2022. About how long did it take the population to double?
Answer: B
Doubling from 4 to 8 billion took 2022 - 1974 = 48 years. Choice A halves the answer, choice C is only the time for the last billion (2011 to 2022), and choice D doubles the answer.
Question 9 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Which question can science answer, rather than being a decision a community must make?
Answer: D
Science can measure and forecast: if use stays the same, the well data can predict how far the water level will drop. Choices A, B and C ask what people should do or what is fair, which communities decide using science along with their values and costs.
Question 10 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Someone says a town's lake shrank only because of drought, not because the town grew. Which data would best test this opposing claim?
Answer: A
Drought means less rain, so rainfall records for the same years directly test the claim. If rainfall stayed normal, drought cannot explain the drop. Choice B shows that the lake is low but not why, and choices C and D do not measure rain or water use.
Question 11 of 20 · Multiple Choice
An invented quarry grew from 20 ha to 26 ha between 2000 and 2010, and from 26 ha to 38 ha between 2010 and 2020. What happened to the rate at which the land was being changed?
Answer: C
From 2000 to 2010 the quarry grew 6 ha in 10 years, 0.6 ha a year. From 2010 to 2020 it grew 12 ha in 10 years, 1.2 ha a year. The rate doubled. Choice A uses only the first decade. Choice D gives the size of the quarry, not how fast it grew.
Question 12 of 20 · Multiple Choice
A town's population fell from 50,000 to 45,000, but its total water use rose. Which explanation fits the data?
Answer: A
Total use = people × use per person. With fewer people, the total can rise only if use per person rose enough to make up for it. Choices B and C reverse the effect of population, and choice D is wrong because a change in use per person can outweigh a change in population.
Question 13 of 20 · Multiple Choice
As a city grows, it burns more natural gas to make electricity, which adds carbon dioxide to the air. Which change to Earth's systems does this describe?
Answer: D
Adding carbon dioxide changes what the air is made of, so it is a change in the composition of the atmosphere. Choice A would be the gas wells or mines, not the burning. Choices B and C name systems that the burning does not change directly.
Question 14 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Two towns each grow by 10,000 people. In Town P each person uses 150 L of water a day; in Town Q each person uses 400 L. Whose growth adds more to daily water use, and by how much more?
Answer: B
Town P adds 10,000 × 150 = 1,500,000 L a day, and Town Q adds 10,000 × 400 = 4,000,000 L a day, which is 2,500,000 L more. Choice C subtracts the per-person numbers without multiplying by the people. Choice D ignores use per person: the same number of new people can have very different impacts.
Question 15 of 20 · Short Answer
Invented data for River Bend: in 2010, 120,000 people each threw away 2.0 kg of trash a day; in 2020, 150,000 people each threw away 1.8 kg a day. Find the daily totals, the percent change of each factor and of the total, and say which factor drove the change.
Totals: 120,000 × 2.0 = 240,000 kg a day in 2010 and 150,000 × 1.8 = 270,000 kg a day in 2020. Population rose 25%, trash per person fell 10%, and the total rose 12.5%. Population growth drove the change: each person threw away less, but not enough less to make up for 30,000 more people.
Question 16 of 20 · Short Answer
Invented data for Green Valley, 1995 to 2025: population rose from 20,000 to 35,000, farmland grew from 8,000 ha to 13,000 ha, wetlands shrank from 3,000 ha to 1,200 ha, and ducks counted each spring fell from 5,400 to 2,100. Write an argument with a claim, evidence and reasoning.
Sample: Claim: Green Valley's population growth changed its biosphere by turning wetlands into farmland, and duck numbers fell. Evidence: population rose 75% (20,000 to 35,000) while farmland grew by 5,000 ha and wetlands lost 1,800 ha, which is 60% of their area; ducks fell from 5,400 to 2,100, a drop of about 61%. Reasoning: more people need more food, so wetlands were drained for fields, and ducks depend on wetlands for food and nesting, so fewer wetlands support fewer ducks. A strong answer notes that these data show a pattern over the same years; a duck count in a nearby valley with no new farmland would make the argument stronger.
Question 17 of 20 · Short Answer
A classmate says, "Only population matters. Use per person makes no difference to Earth." Write a rebuttal using this invented example: Country A has 10 million people who each use 9,000 kWh of electricity a year; Country B has 50 million people who each use 1,000 kWh.
Country A uses 10,000,000 × 9,000 = 90 billion kWh a year, and Country B uses 50,000,000 × 1,000 = 50 billion kWh. Country B has 5 times as many people, but Country A uses nearly twice as much electricity, so making it takes more fuel and changes Earth's systems more. Use per person clearly makes a difference: total use depends on both factors multiplied together.
Question 18 of 20 · Short Answer
Invented data: in Lakeside, the well water level was 10 m below the surface in 2000. It dropped 0.3 m a year from 2000 to 2015, then 0.5 m a year from 2015 to 2025 as pumping grew. Find the level in 2015 and 2025. The pumps stop working when the level is more than 22 m down. If the 0.5 m a year rate continues, when will that happen?
In 2015: 10 + 15 × 0.3 = 14.5 m down. In 2025: 14.5 + 10 × 0.5 = 19.5 m down. The level must drop 22 - 19.5 = 2.5 m more, which takes 2.5 ÷ 0.5 = 5 years, so around 2030. The faster rate after 2015 matters as much as the total drop: it brings the problem 3 years sooner than the old rate would (2.5 ÷ 0.3 ≈ 8 years).
Question 19 of 20 · Short Answer
A growing city builds many new houses and roads from concrete, which is made from limestone, sand and gravel. Name two Earth systems affected and describe each change.
Sample: The geosphere changes in appearance and structure because quarries dig away hills and riverbeds for limestone, sand and gravel. The atmosphere changes in composition because making cement from limestone releases carbon dioxide. Also accept the hydrosphere (paved ground makes rain run off faster instead of soaking in) or the biosphere (fields and forests are covered by buildings).
Question 20 of 20 · Short Answer
A science club forecasts that, at current rates, its town will need 30% more water by 2040. Name one thing science can tell the town and one decision the town must make, and explain the difference.
Sample: Science can tell the town how much water it will need and how far the wells or lake are likely to drop if use continues; that is a measurement and a forecast. A decision is, for example, whether to raise water prices, limit lawn watering or build a pipeline. Science describes the consequences of each choice, but choosing among them depends on what people value, the costs and who is affected, so society makes the decision.
0 of 20 answered · 0 correct
06
Frequently Asked Questions
10 Questions
What does MS-ESS3-4 mean?
MS-ESS3-4 asks students to build an argument, supported by evidence, for how more people and more use of resources per person change Earth's systems. The code means Middle School, Earth and Space Science, core idea 3 (Earth and Human Activity), performance expectation 4.
What grade is MS-ESS3-4 taught in?
It is a grades 6-8 standard, usually taught in an Earth science unit on human impacts, often after students study natural resources (MS-ESS3-1). It fits well alongside grade 7 percent work in math (7.RP.A.3).
What does per-capita consumption mean?
It means the amount of a resource used per person, on average. If a town uses 1,000,000 L of water a day and has 5,000 people, its per-capita use is 200 L a day. Total use is the population times the per-capita use.
Why is it not enough to look at population alone?
Because total use is a product of two factors. A town can grow while each person uses less, and its total may still rise. A town that does not grow can still use more if each person uses more. Students need both numbers to argue which factor drove a change.
What counts as an impact on Earth's systems?
A change in the appearance, composition or structure of the geosphere, hydrosphere, atmosphere or biosphere, or in how fast it is changing. Examples are a quarry that reshapes land, a lake that shrinks, carbon dioxide added to the air and a forest cleared for farms.
What makes a strong argument for MS-ESS3-4?
A strong argument has a clear claim that names a resource and an Earth system, evidence with numbers, years and units, reasoning that explains the cause and effect, and a rebuttal that answers an opposing claim with data. Weak arguments use opinions or a single photo as evidence.
Where can students find real data on population and resource use?
United Nations population estimates, national statistics offices, local water utility reports and government energy agencies all publish yearly data. For middle school, a short table of a few years, as in this lesson, is easier to use than a large spreadsheet.
Does MS-ESS3-4 tell students what society should do?
No. The Clarification Statement says science describes the consequences of growth in population and consumption, but does not make the decisions for the actions society takes. Students can forecast results and compare options, while the choice is left to people and their communities.
What mistakes do students make with these calculations?
Common slips are adding population and use per person instead of multiplying, adding two percent changes instead of multiplying the growth factors (1.2 × 1.2 = 1.44, not 1.40), and dividing a change by the new value instead of the starting value.
How does MS-ESS3-4 connect to high school?
In high school, HS-ESS3-1 asks how resources, hazards and climate have shaped human activity, and HS-ESS3-3 asks students to build computer simulations of resource use, population and biodiversity. The multiplication of people by use per person is the starting point for those models.
07
Related Standards
6 standards
These standards connect to MS-ESS3-4: prerequisites to review first, parallel standards at the same level, and next steps that build on it.
Before this lesson
4-ESS3-1Prerequisite
Describe how energy and fuels come from natural resources and how their use affects the environment
Lesson coming soon
5-ESS3-1Prerequisite
Describe ways communities use science ideas to protect Earth's resources and environment
Lesson coming soon
Alongside
MS-ESS3-3Parallel
Design a method for monitoring and minimizing a human impact on the environment
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