HS-ESS3-5NGSS*ScienceEarth and Space ScienceGrades 9-12
HS-ESS3-5: Forecasting Climate Change from Data and Climate Models
In plain English: HS-ESS3-5 is the NGSS high school performance expectation that asks students to analyze geoscience data and global climate model results to forecast the current rate of global or regional climate change and its future impacts on Earth systems. Students fit trends, compare observations with model projections and forecast effects such as sea level rise. It is usually taught in Earth and Space Science.
Analyze geoscience data and the results from global climate models to make an evidence-based forecast of the current rate of global or regional climate change and associated future impacts to Earth systems.
Clarification Statement: Examples of evidence, for both data and climate model outputs, are for climate changes (such as precipitation and temperature) and their associated impacts (such as on sea level, glacial ice volumes, or atmosphere and ocean composition).
Assessment Boundary: Assessment is limited to one example of a climate change and its associated impacts.
Next Generation Science Standards · Disciplinary Core Idea: Earth and Human Activity · Official standard
Students use geoscience data and the results of global climate models to forecast how fast climate is changing now and what that change will do to other Earth systems. They find the rate of warming as the slope of a best-fit line, compare observed rates with model hindcasts, average the projections of several models and state their spread, and forecast impacts on sea level and glacial ice with an honest statement of uncertainty.
The NGSS Clarification Statement says: "Examples of evidence, for both data and climate model outputs, are for climate changes (such as precipitation and temperature) and their associated impacts (such as on sea level, glacial ice volumes, or atmosphere and ocean composition)." The Assessment Boundary says: "Assessment is limited to one example of a climate change and its associated impacts." To stay inside it, every activity, homework problem and quiz item on this page uses one climate change, rising temperature, and its associated impacts on sea level and glacial ice. All data sets and model results are invented for teaching; they are rounded to sizes similar to published records but are not real measurements. Students do the practice of analyzing data: they graph, fit trends, compare data with models and write forecasts backed by evidence.
Learning Objectives
By the end of this lesson, students will be able to:
Find the current rate of global or regional warming from a data table or graph as the slope of a best-fit line, in °C per decade
Judge whether climate models are consistent with observations by comparing a hindcast with observed data
Summarize the results of several climate models with an average and a range, and explain what the range means
Forecast associated impacts, such as sea level rise and glacial ice loss, from observed rates and model results, and explain why a straight-line forecast can be too low
Write an evidence-based forecast that names the data, the model results and the uncertainty
Prior Knowledge Required
Students should already be comfortable with:
The factors that caused the rise in global temperatures over the past century MS-ESS3-5
Interpreting the slope of a linear model in context 8.SP.A.3
Using a best-fit line to describe a trend in data HSS.ID.C.7
The difference between weather (day to day) and climate (averages over decades)
Show two numbers without context: a city's coldest January in ten years, and its thirty-year average January temperature, which is 1.4 °C warmer than it was fifty years ago.
Warm-Up Prompt
"A friend says the cold January proves the climate is not warming. Which of the two numbers is better evidence about climate, and why? What would you need to know to say how fast the city is warming?"
Collect answers. Draw out the idea that climate is judged from long records and that a rate needs a change and a time. Tell students that today they will measure rates from data, check them against climate models and use both to forecast.
Direct Instruction15-20 minutes
Rates, models and forecasts. Geoscience data (thermometer records, tide gauges, satellite measurements, glacier surveys) show what has happened. The rate of change is the slope of a best-fit line through many years, so a single warm or cold year hardly moves it. Global climate models are computer programs built on physics; they are tested by hindcasting (simulating the past and comparing with observations) and then run forward under different emissions scenarios. Scientists use many models because each makes different choices; the average gives a central estimate and the spread shows the uncertainty. A forecast combines both: the observed current rate, what the models project, and the impacts that follow, such as sea level rise from warming water and melting land ice. Use Diagram 1 with the first example and Diagram 2 with the second.
Rate of global warming from data
Invented global temperature anomalies (compared with a 1951-1980 average) are 0.38, 0.43, 0.50, 0.61, 0.68, 0.84 and 0.98 °C for 1990, 1995, ... , 2020.
Result: The least-squares best-fit line has a slope of 0.020 °C per year, or 0.20 °C per decade (Diagram 1). The trend line gives 0.93 °C for 2020, so if the rate stays the same, the forecast for 2050 is 0.93 + 3 × 0.20 ≈ 1.53 °C.
Sea level rise and its rate (an associated impact)
Invented global mean sea level, compared with 1993, is 0, 32, 67 and 105 mm in 1993, 2003, 2013 and 2023.
Result: Rates by decade: 3.2, 3.5 and 3.8 mm per year, so the rise is speeding up. At the latest rate, the forecast for 2050 is 105 + 27 × 3.8 ≈ 208 mm above 1993. Because the rate is still increasing, this straight-line forecast is a low estimate; Diagram 2 compares it with model results.
Results from several climate models
Five invented models project the warming for 2081-2100 under one medium emissions scenario: 2.4, 2.7, 2.9, 3.1 and 3.4 °C above preindustrial. Their hindcasts of 1990-2020 average 0.21 °C per decade.
Result: Model average: 14.5 ÷ 5 = 2.9 °C, with a range of 2.4 to 3.4 °C (a spread of 1.0 °C). The hindcast rate, 0.21 °C per decade, is close to the 0.20 °C per decade observed in the first example, which is evidence that the models capture the recent warming.
Model results for a coastal impact
An invented model study for a harbor gives the number of high-tide flooding days per year for sea-level rise above today's level: 4 days now, 12 days at +0.1 m, 30 days at +0.2 m and 70 days at +0.3 m. The local tide gauge shows sea level rising 4 mm per year.
Result: At 4 mm per year, the harbor gains 0.2 m in 200 ÷ 4 = 50 years, so it can expect about 30 flooding days a year in about 50 years, instead of 4. If the rate keeps increasing, that point comes sooner.
Regional warming and glacial ice
An invented mountain glacier had a volume of 12.0 km³ in 2000, 10.8 km³ in 2010 and 9.6 km³ in 2020, while the region warmed 0.4 °C per decade, twice the global rate in the first example.
Result: The glacier loses 1.2 km³ per decade, or 0.12 km³ per year. At that rate it reaches half its 2000 volume (6.0 km³) after (9.6 - 6.0) ÷ 0.12 = 30 more years, in 2050. Continued regional warming would make the loss faster, so 2050 is a late estimate.
After each example, ask: "Which numbers are observations and which are model results? What is the rate, and what forecast does it give? What could make the forecast wrong?" Stress that each forecast states its assumption, usually "if the current rate continues".
Guided Practice15 minutes
Pairs analyze invented data from a high-latitude weather station and the hindcasts of four invented regional climate models.
Guided practice data: regional temperature anomaly (invented)
Year
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Anomaly (°C)
-0.2
0.3
0.7
1.2
1.7
Plot the five points and draw a best-fit line. Find its slope: about 0.47 °C per decade.
Compare with the global rate of 0.20 °C per decade. The region is warming about 2.35 times as fast.
Four models hindcast 1980-2020 regional warming rates of 0.35, 0.44, 0.50 and 0.62 °C per decade. Which ones fall within 0.05 °C per decade of the observed rate? (The 0.44 and 0.50 models.)
Forecast the 2050 anomaly if the observed rate continues. The trend line gives 1.68 °C for 2020, so 1.68 + 3 × 0.47 ≈ 3.1 °C.
Discuss: why might a scientist trust a projection more from the models whose hindcasts matched?
Independent Practice10-15 minutes
Each student forecasts an ice impact of regional warming in two ways and compares them. An invented northern lake was ice-covered for an average of 118 days a winter in the 1980s, 112 in the 1990s, 105 in the 2000s and 99 in the 2010s. The region warms 0.3 °C per decade, and an invented model study finds that each 1 °C of winter warming shortens ice cover on lakes like this one by about 16 days.
Students find the trend in the data (about -6.4 days per decade) and forecast the 2040s (about 80 days). Then they use the model result: three decades of warming at 0.3 °C per decade is 0.9 °C, or about 14 fewer days than the 2010s, giving about 85 days. They write two sentences on why the two forecasts differ and which one they would report, with a range.
Closure5 minutes
Exit ticket: "A tide gauge shows sea level 45 mm higher in 2024 than in 2014. What is the rate? If it stays the same, how much higher will sea level be in 2050 than in 2024? Is that forecast more likely too high or too low, and why?" (4.5 mm per year; about 117 mm; probably too low if the rate keeps increasing.)
Differentiation Strategies
For Struggling Students
Give data already plotted with a best-fit line drawn, and have students read two points on the line to find the slope
Provide a forecast frame: "The data show a rate of ___ per ___. The models project ___ (range ___ to ___). If the rate continues, by ___ we expect ___."
Use whole decades on the time axis so that slopes come out in "per decade" directly
For Advanced Students
Fit a quadratic to the sea-level data in a spreadsheet and compare its 2050 forecast with the straight-line forecast
Ask students to explain why regional warming at high latitudes is faster than the global average, using the ice-albedo idea from earlier units
Have students write a one-paragraph forecast for a city council that separates what is known from the data, what the models add and what remains uncertain
Assessment Guidance
What to Look For
Check that students find rates from a trend over many years, not from two unusual years, and that they give units such as °C per decade or mm per year. Look for forecasts that state the assumption ("if the current rate continues") and a range, not a single certain number. Listen for students who treat model results as observations, or who dismiss models without checking the hindcast. Check that impacts are linked to the warming that causes them, for example warmer water expanding or land ice melting.
02
Classroom Activities
3 Activities
1
Trend Detectives: How Fast Is the City Warming?
20 minPairs
Pairs graph invented annual mean temperatures for a city, fit a trend line and compare the rate in the first and second halves of the record.
Data (invented)
Annual mean temperature (°C) in 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020: 14.1, 14.4, 14.2, 14.6, 14.5, 14.9, 14.8, 15.2, 15.3.
Tasks
Plot the points and draw a best-fit line by eye, then check it with a calculator or spreadsheet. The full-record slope is about 0.29 °C per decade.
Fit separate lines for 1980-2000 and 2000-2020 (about 0.20 and 0.38 °C per decade).
Forecast the 2040 annual mean with the full-record rate and with the recent rate, and give the forecast as a range.
Discussion Questions
1990 was cooler than 1985. Does that point change your conclusion about the trend? Why not?
The 2000-2020 rate is almost twice the 1980-2000 rate. What does that suggest about using the full-record rate for a forecast?
What other data would help you decide whether this city's warming is regional or part of the global pattern?
Modification for Distance Learning
Students enter the data in a free online spreadsheet, add a linear trendline and post a screenshot with their two forecasts.
2
Model Ensemble Forecast for a Coastal School
20 minGroups of 3-4
Each group receives six invented model-result cards for sea-level rise at a coastal school and one card of tide-gauge data. They summarize the ensemble, compare it with the observed trend and write a forecast for the school board.
Cards (invented)
Model cards: sea-level rise from 2020 to 2100 under one medium emissions scenario of 0.38, 0.42, 0.47, 0.51, 0.58 and 0.66 m.
Hindcast card: the six models simulate 1993-2020 rates between 3.1 and 3.6 mm per year.
Data card: the local tide gauge shows 3.4 mm per year over 1993-2020. The school's playing field sits 0.6 m above today's highest tides.
Tasks
Compute the ensemble average (about 0.50 m) and range (0.38 to 0.66 m).
Check the hindcast against the tide gauge. Is the observed rate inside the models' range?
Compute the straight-line forecast from the tide gauge for 2020-2100 (3.4 × 80 ≈ 272 mm) and compare it with the ensemble.
Count how many models put the rise above 0.6 m by 2100, and write a two-sentence forecast for the board that includes the range.
Discussion Questions
Only one of the six models exceeds 0.6 m by 2100. Should the board ignore that model? What would you want to know about it?
Why is the straight-line forecast below every model card?
Challenge Variation
Give a second set of cards for a high emissions scenario and ask groups to explain how the choice of scenario, rather than model uncertainty, changes the forecast.
3
Ice and Expansion Lab: Where Does Sea Level Rise Come From?
30 minGroups of 3-4
Groups build two physical models of how warming raises sea level: melting ice in two containers (ice on land and floating ice) and the expansion of warmed water in a bottle. They measure the changes, then use their results to explain which impacts of warming raise sea level.
Procedure
Container 1: press a block of modeling clay against one side as a "continent" that rises above the water, add water to a marked line and put 4 ice cubes on the clay. Container 2: add water to the same line and float 4 ice cubes in it. Tape a millimeter ruler to each container and read the water level every 10 minutes until the ice melts.
Bottle: fill a 500 mL plastic bottle to the top with colored cool tap water, push a clear straw about 6 mm across through a ball of modeling clay into the neck so the water rises a few centimeters up the straw, and mark the level. Stand the bottle in a tub of warm tap water and record the level and the water temperature every 5 minutes.
Safety
Wear goggles. Use plastic containers and bottles only, no glass.
Use warm water from the tap (no hotter than about 45 °C, which feels comfortably warm to the hand). Do not use a kettle, hot plate or open flame.
Wipe up spills and melted ice at once to prevent slips, and keep any lamp or device cords away from water.
Do not drink the colored water; pour it down the sink at the end and wash hands.
Sample Data (invented)
Container 1 (ice on land): the water level rose 4 mm. Container 2 (floating ice): no change that the ruler could detect. Bottle: the water in the straw rose about 60 mm as the water warmed from 15 °C to 30 °C.
Discussion Questions
Which container models a melting ice sheet on land, and which models melting sea ice? Use your measurements to explain which one raises sea level.
The bottle model has no ice at all. What does it show about another way warming raises sea level?
Name one way these models differ from the real ocean, and how that limits what you can conclude from them.
Modification for Distance Learning
Students watch a teacher demonstration video with a ruler in view, record the readings themselves and answer the discussion questions from those readings.
03
Diagrams & Visual Aids
2 diagrams
Diagram 1: Rate of Global Warming as the Slope of a Trend Line
Invented global temperature anomalies from the first worked example, drawn to scale. The least-squares best-fit line rises 0.60 °C over 30 years, a rate of 0.20 °C per decade. Individual years sit above or below the line, which is why rates are measured over decades.
Diagram 2: Sea-Level Forecasts: Current Rate versus Climate Model Results
Invented values drawn to scale. The dashed line keeps the current rate of 3.8 mm per year from the second worked example constant and gives about 0.30 m by 2100. The bars show the range of invented model results for low, medium and high emissions scenarios, and the dots show each average (0.38, 0.49 and 0.70 m). The models include the increase in the rate that a straight line leaves out.
04
Homework Assignment
~30 min
HS-ESS3-5 Homework: Forecasting Warming and Its Impacts
Directions: All data sets and model results are invented for practice, and every problem is about one climate change, rising temperature, and its impacts. Show each calculation with units. End every forecast with the assumption it depends on and a statement of uncertainty.
Part 1: Rates from Geoscience Data (Problems 1-2)
A city's decade-average temperatures are 9.6 °C for the 1990s, 9.9 °C for the 2000s and 10.2 °C for the 2010s. (a) What is the rate of warming per decade? (b) Forecast the 2040s decade average if the rate continues. (c) Explain why decade averages are better evidence of the rate than two single years.
A tide gauge shows sea level (compared with 1980) of 0 mm in 1980, 52 mm in 2000 and 118 mm in 2020. (a) Find the rate in mm per year for 1980-2000 and for 2000-2020. (b) Forecast sea level in 2060 using the 2000-2020 rate. (c) Explain whether your forecast is more likely to be too high or too low, and name the physical causes of the rise that are linked to warming.
Part 2: Using Climate Model Results (Problems 3-4)
Five regional climate models project warming from 2020 to 2060 of 1.8, 2.1, 2.2, 2.5 and 2.9 °C under a medium scenario. The observed regional trend since 1980 is 0.5 °C per decade. (a) Find the model average and range. (b) What warming from 2020 to 2060 does the observed trend give if it continues? (c) Is the observed trend consistent with the models? Explain.
Three models simulate 1980-2020 regional warming of 0.7, 0.8 and 1.2 °C; the observed warming was 0.8 °C. Their projections of further warming from 2020 to 2100 are 2.6, 2.8 and 4.1 °C, in the same order. (a) Which models match the observed warming within 0.1 °C? (b) Find the average projection of all three models and of only the matching models. (c) Argue for which average you would report, and why.
Part 3: Forecasting Impacts (Problems 5-6)
A glacier covered 42 km² in 2000 and 33 km² in 2020. (a) Find the rate of area loss in km² per year. (b) Forecast the 2040 area if the rate continues. (c) A model study says warming will make the average loss rate from 2020 to 2040 1.5 times the 2000-2020 rate. Forecast the 2040 area with the model result. (d) What percent of its 2000 area would remain in that case?
A coastal road floods at high tide once sea level is 0.5 m above its 2020 level. The local tide gauge shows 3.6 mm per year, and model results for 2020-2100 under a medium scenario range from 0.40 to 0.80 m, with an average of 0.60 m. (a) How much rise does the tide-gauge rate give by 2100? (b) In what year would the road start flooding at that constant rate? (c) Write a claim, evidence and reasoning forecast for the town that uses both the data and the model results.
Rubric
Criterion
Full Credit (2 pts)
Partial Credit (1 pt)
Rates from Data
Rates computed from a trend with correct units (°C per decade, mm per year, km² per year)
Correct method with one calculation or unit error
Using Model Results
Model average and range computed; hindcast compared with observations
Average or range computed, but not compared with data
Forecast of Impacts
Forecast states its assumption, gives a range and links the impact to warming
Forecast given as a single number with no assumption or uncertainty
Evidence-Based Reasoning
Claim cites specific data and model results and explains why a straight-line forecast may be low
Claim stated, but the evidence is general
05
Quiz: 20 Questions
Interactive, with answers
Instructions
All data sets and model results are invented for practice, and every question is about rising temperature and its impacts. Your score updates as you answer, and Reset quiz clears everything so you or your students can try again.
Multiple choice: pick an option to check it. Short answer: write your answer, then reveal the model answer.
0 of 20 answered · 0 correct
Question 1 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Which of these is a result from a global climate model rather than a geoscience observation?
Answer: C
A projection of a future temperature can only come from a model run under an assumed scenario. Choices A, B and D are measurements of what has already happened, which are geoscience data. A forecast uses both kinds of evidence.
Question 2 of 20 · Multiple Choice
On the trend line of a regional temperature record, the anomaly is 0.30 °C in 1985 and 0.95 °C in 2015. What is the rate of warming?
Answer: A
The change is 0.95 - 0.30 = 0.65 °C over 30 years, or 3 decades, so the rate is 0.65 ÷ 3 ≈ 0.22 °C per decade. Choice B gives the total change as if it happened in one decade. Choice C is the rate per year labeled as per decade. Choice D multiplies the change by the number of decades instead of dividing (0.65 × 3 = 1.95).
Question 3 of 20 · Multiple Choice
A temperature trend line reaches 1.10 °C above a baseline in 2020 and rises 0.25 °C per decade. If the rate stays the same, what does it forecast for 2050?
Answer: B
From 2020 to 2050 is 3 decades, so the rise is 3 × 0.25 = 0.75 °C and the forecast is 1.10 + 0.75 = 1.85 °C. Choice A adds only one decade. Choice C multiplies the rate by 30 years, treating it as per year. Choice D assumes no further change.
Question 4 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Satellite data show global mean sea level rose 84 mm from 2002 to 2022. What was the average rate of rise?
Answer: D
84 mm ÷ 20 years = 4.2 mm per year. Choice A divides by 10 years instead of 20. Choice B gives the total rise as a yearly rate. Choice C is off by a factor of 10.
Question 5 of 20 · Multiple Choice
A tide gauge record shows sea level rising 2.1 mm per year from 1960 to 1990 and 3.9 mm per year from 1993 to 2023. A report forecasts the rise to 2050 using the 1960-1990 rate. What is the main problem with that forecast?
Answer: A
The evidence shows the rate has nearly doubled, so the forecast should use at least the current rate and allow for further increase. Choice B has no evidence behind it and contradicts these data. Choice C ignores the change in rate, which is the key feature of the data. Choice D is false: tide gauges are a standard sea-level record.
Question 6 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Four climate models project 2081-2100 warming of 1.9, 2.3, 2.6 and 3.0 °C under the same scenario. What are the model average and the range?
Answer: C
The sum is 9.8 °C, so the average is 9.8 ÷ 4 = 2.45 °C, and the results run from 1.9 to 3.0 °C (a spread of 1.1 °C). Choice B reports the sum as the average. Choices A and D pick one model's value instead of averaging, and D also cuts off the highest result.
Question 7 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Two groups of models project regional warming by 2060 under the same scenario. Group X gives results from 2.6 to 2.8 °C and Group Y from 2.0 to 3.6 °C. Both average 2.7 °C. What do the results show?
Answer: B
The averages are the same, so the groups agree on the central forecast; the difference is the spread. Y's range is 1.6 °C wide and X's is 0.2 °C, so Y leaves more uncertainty and its range should be reported. Choices A and D misread the equal averages. Choice C judges a model by its spread instead of by comparing its hindcast with observations.
Question 8 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Observed regional warming from 1980 to 2020 was 0.72 °C. Four models hindcast that period as 0.45, 0.70, 0.95 and 1.20 °C. Which model's hindcast best supports trusting its projection?
Answer: D
The 0.70 °C hindcast differs from the observation by only 0.02 °C, the closest match, so it reproduces the past best. Choices A and B choose by the size of the result rather than by agreement with data. Choice C is false: comparing hindcasts with data is exactly how models are tested.
Question 9 of 20 · Multiple Choice
A glacier holds 5.0 km³ of ice and loses 0.08 km³ a year. If that rate continues, about how long until it has lost half its ice?
Answer: A
Half the ice is 2.5 km³, and 2.5 ÷ 0.08 = 31.25, about 31 years. Choice B is the time to lose all the ice. Choice C gives the volume lost, not the time. Choice D halves the answer twice. If warming speeds up the melting, it will take less time.
Question 10 of 20 · Multiple Choice
A website computes a warming rate from just two years of a global record: 0.65 °C in 2012 and 1.00 °C in 2016, which gives 0.875 °C per decade. The best-fit line through 1990-2020 gives 0.20 °C per decade. Why is the website's rate misleading?
Answer: C
(1.00 - 0.65) ÷ 0.4 decades = 0.875 °C per decade, more than four times the long-term rate, because year-to-year ups and downs dominate a short span. Choice A is false: a trend line can give a larger number than two endpoints. Choice B ignores that 1990-2020 includes the recent decades. Choice D treats a four-year span as equal to thirty years of data.
Question 11 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Which of these, if it melted completely, would raise global sea level?
Answer: B
Ice resting on land adds new water to the ocean when it melts or slides in, so the Greenland ice sheet raises sea level. Choices A, C and D are already floating, so they already push aside about their own weight of water, and melting them changes sea level very little. Their loss still matters: it can speed the flow of land ice behind them and expose dark water that warms faster.
Question 12 of 20 · Multiple Choice
An invented model splits a sea level rise of 3.6 mm per year into 1.4 mm per year from thermal expansion of warming seawater and 2.2 mm per year from melting land ice. What percent of the rise comes from thermal expansion?
Answer: D
1.4 ÷ 3.6 ≈ 0.39, so about 39% of the rise comes from warmer water taking up more volume, with no ice melting at all. Choice A is the land-ice share (2.2 ÷ 3.6). Choice B reads the rate as a percent. Choice C divides 1.4 by 2.2, comparing the two parts instead of taking a part of the whole.
Question 13 of 20 · Multiple Choice
The global warming rate over recent decades is 0.20 °C per decade, and an Arctic station shows 0.50 °C per decade. How many times the global rate is the station warming?
Answer: C
0.50 ÷ 0.20 = 2.5, so the station warms 2.5 times as fast. Choice A divides the wrong way. Choice B subtracts the rates. Choice D multiplies the rates (0.50 × 0.20 = 0.1). Faster warming at high latitudes is one reason forecasts are made for regions as well as the globe.
Question 14 of 20 · Multiple Choice
A city has warmed 0.4 °C per decade since 1990, and regional model results give 1.0 to 1.8 °C of warming from 2020 to 2050. Which forecast statement is best supported by the evidence?
Answer: B
Three decades at 0.4 °C per decade is 1.2 °C, which sits inside the model range, and choice B states both its assumption and the range. Choice A claims more precision than any forecast can have. Choice C ignores that trends over decades can be measured. Choice D contradicts the evidence: CO2 already added stays in the air for a long time, so warming slows only gradually.
Question 15 of 20 · Short Answer
The trend line for an invented temperature record passes through 0.40 °C in 2000, 0.64 °C in 2010 and 0.88 °C in 2020. (a) What is the rate of warming per decade? (b) Forecast the anomaly in 2040 if the rate continues, and state one reason the forecast could be wrong.
(a) The anomaly rises 0.24 °C each decade, so the rate is 0.24 °C per decade. (b) 0.88 + 2 × 0.24 = 1.36 °C in 2040. The forecast assumes the rate stays the same; it could be too low if emissions keep rising and warming speeds up, or too high if emissions fall quickly.
Question 16 of 20 · Short Answer
A harbor road floods at high tide once sea level is 0.3 m above its 2020 level. Model results say that level is reached around 2065 in a medium scenario and around 2055 in a high scenario. The tide gauge shows 4.0 mm per year. (a) When does the tide-gauge rate reach 0.3 m? (b) Which date would you tell the city to plan for, and why?
(a) 300 mm ÷ 4.0 mm per year = 75 years, so about 2095. (b) Plan for the 2055-2065 window from the models. The constant-rate forecast leaves out the increase in the rate that the data already show, and flood planning should use the earlier end of a supported range, since being late is costly.
Question 17 of 20 · Short Answer
Invented regional anomalies for 2014 to 2019 are 0.62, 0.71, 0.90, 0.84, 0.79 and 0.86 °C, and the 1980-2010 trend line, extended at 0.15 °C per decade, gives about 0.60 °C for 2015 and 0.66 °C for 2019. A student says: "Temperatures went down after 2016, so warming stopped." Use the data to respond.
The drop from 0.90 to 0.79 °C is year-to-year variation. Every year from 2015 to 2019 is above the extended earlier trend line (0.60 to 0.66 °C), and the 2019 value (0.86 °C) is higher than 2014 or 2015. A rate has to come from a trend over decades, and six years mostly above the old trend are evidence that warming continues.
Question 18 of 20 · Short Answer
An invented model study of a mountain range finds that each 1 °C of regional warming raises the altitude where a glacier gains as much snow as it loses (the equilibrium line) by about 150 m. The region is forecast to warm 1.2 °C by 2060. (a) How far will the line rise? (b) Explain what this means for a glacier whose top is only 100 m above the current line.
(a) 1.2 × 150 = 180 m. (b) The line would rise above the top of the glacier, so no part of the glacier would gain ice each year. The glacier would shrink every year until it disappears, even if warming then stopped, so the forecast impact is the loss of the glacier and of the meltwater it supplies in summer.
Question 19 of 20 · Short Answer
The observed warming rate in a region since 1990 is 0.32 °C per decade. Invented regional models hindcast 0.22 to 0.38 °C per decade for the same period, and they project 0.9 to 1.4 °C of further warming from 2020 to 2050. (a) Are the models consistent with the data? (b) What does the observed rate forecast for 2020-2050? (c) Write a one-sentence forecast that uses both.
(a) Yes: 0.32 lies inside the 0.22 to 0.38 range. (b) 3 decades × 0.32 = 0.96 °C, about 1.0 °C. (c) For example: "The region is likely to warm by about 1.0 to 1.4 °C between 2020 and 2050: the current rate gives about 1.0 °C, and the models, which match past warming, suggest it could be higher."
Question 20 of 20 · Short Answer
A harbor tide gauge shows sea level rising 3.5 mm per year. Invented model results for the harbor give 0.12 to 0.20 m of rise from 2023 to 2050. Write a claim, evidence and reasoning forecast of the rise by 2050, including a range.
Claim: sea level at the harbor is likely to rise about 0.1 to 0.2 m by 2050. Evidence: 27 years × 3.5 mm per year = 94.5 mm, about 0.09 m, at the current rate; the models give 0.12 to 0.20 m. Reasoning: the models include the continued increase in the rate as oceans warm and land ice melts, so the constant-rate value is a low estimate, and the model range is the better central forecast.
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Frequently Asked Questions
10 Questions
What does HS-ESS3-5 mean?
HS-ESS3-5 asks students to use real-world-style data and climate model results to forecast how fast climate is changing and what that change will do to other parts of the Earth system. Students measure rates from data, compare them with models and write a forecast with a range. The code means High School, Earth and Space Science, core idea 3 (Earth and Human Activity), performance expectation 5.
Is HS-ESS3-5 taught in Earth science or environmental science?
It is usually taught in Earth and Space Science, and it also fits in Environmental Science or the climate unit of an integrated course. The math needed is slope, averages and proportional reasoning, so it suits students who have completed or are taking Algebra I.
What does the HS-ESS3-5 assessment boundary mean for a lesson?
It means assessment is limited to one example of a climate change and its associated impacts. This page uses rising temperature as that example and assesses its impacts on sea level and glacial ice. A teacher could choose a different single example, such as a change in regional precipitation and its effect on water supply, and build the tasks around it instead.
What counts as geoscience data for HS-ESS3-5?
Geoscience data are observations of the Earth system: thermometer records, tide gauges, satellite measurements of sea level and ice, glacier surveys, and records from ice cores or sediments. For forecasting the current rate, long instrument records are the most direct evidence. The data sets on this page are invented for teaching but have realistic sizes.
Do students need to run a climate model for HS-ESS3-5?
No. Students analyze the results of global climate models, such as projected temperature or sea level under different scenarios, and compare them with observations. Simple online model interfaces can help students see how scenarios differ, but the standard asks for analysis of results, not programming.
How can students tell whether a climate model is trustworthy?
They compare its hindcast, its simulation of the past, with observations of the same period. A model that reproduces the observed warming is more credible for projections, and agreement among many models adds confidence. Students should also notice that the future depends on the emissions scenario, which is a choice about human activity, not a model error.
Why is a straight-line forecast of sea level often too low?
Because the rate of sea level rise has been increasing, so a line drawn at today's rate leaves out future speed-up. Warmer water expands and land ice loss has been growing, and climate models include these processes. A straight line at the current rate is still a useful lower bound.
What are common mistakes on HS-ESS3-5 tasks?
Frequent mistakes are finding a rate from two unusual years, dropping units, treating a model projection as an observation, and giving a single exact forecast with no range or assumption. Students also confuse floating sea ice with land ice when explaining sea level rise.
How does HS-ESS3-5 connect to other standards?
It builds on MS-ESS3-5, where students ask questions about the causes of rising global temperature, and on HS-ESS2-4, which models how energy flow changes climate. It leads to HS-ESS3-6, where students use model results to show how human activity changes the links among Earth systems. In math it applies slope and best-fit lines (HSS.ID.C.7).
Is there a safe hands-on lab for HS-ESS3-5?
Yes. Comparing ice melting on a clay "continent" with floating ice, and watching warm tap water rise in a straw, are safe physical models of two sea-level impacts of warming. Use plastic containers, warm tap water only (no kettles, hot plates or flames), goggles, and wipe up water at once to prevent slips.
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Related Standards
5 standards
These standards connect to HS-ESS3-5: prerequisites to review first, parallel standards at the same level, and next steps that build on it.
Before this lesson
MS-ESS3-5Prerequisite
Ask questions about evidence for the factors behind rising global temperatures
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