D2.His.15.9-12: Long-Term Causes and the Triggering Event of the War of 1914
In plain English: D2.His.15.9-12 is the C3 Framework history indicator for grades 9-12 that asks students to distinguish between long-term causes and triggering events in developing a historical argument. Students separate conditions that built up over years from the event that set an outcome off, then argue how each mattered, for example in the outbreak of the First World War in 1914.
Distinguish between long-term causes and triggering events in developing a historical argument.
C3 Framework for Social Studies (NCSS) · Dimension 2: Applying Disciplinary Concepts and Tools · Discipline: History · Causation and Argumentation · Official standard
D2.His.15.9-12 asks students to distinguish between long-term causes (conditions that built up over years and made an outcome possible or likely) and triggering events (specific events that set the outcome off at a particular moment) as they develop a historical argument. The outbreak of the First World War in the summer of 1914 is a classic case. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand at Sarajevo on June 28, 1914, is the event the sources in this lesson treat as the trigger; alliances, an arms race, rivalries and nationalism are among the long-term causes they name.
Students work with sources written by people on different sides: an American editor's account (1916), the German government's White Book (August 1914), Serbia's reply to Austria-Hungary (July 1914), the memoirs of the former German emperor (1922), and British historians at Oxford (1914). They sort causes, test how each source weighs long-term causes against the trigger, and write their own argument. The goal is not to settle who was to blame, which the sources themselves dispute, but to build an argument that keeps the two kinds of cause distinct and weighs them with evidence.
Learning Objectives
By the end of this lesson, students will be able to:
Define long-term causes and triggering events and explain how they differ in time span, scope and what they explain
Classify developments of 1871-1914 as long-term causes, the triggering event, or steps in the chain of decisions that followed it
Analyze how a source's author weighs long-term causes against the trigger, and how the author's position shapes that weighing
Develop a historical argument about the outbreak of the war of 1914 that distinguishes long-term causes from the triggering event and answers a counterclaim
Prior Knowledge Required
Students should already be comfortable with:
Analyzing multiple and complex causes and effects of events in the past D2.His.14.9-12
Evaluating the relative influence of various causes of events D2.His.15.6-8
Analyzing a series of events and determining whether earlier events caused later ones or simply preceded them RH.9-10.3
"A forest fire starts when lightning strikes a dead tree after a dry summer. Which is the cause: the lightning, the dry summer, or the dead wood that had piled up for years? Write two sentences explaining your answer."
Take a quick poll. Most classes split between the lightning and the dry conditions. Name the two kinds of cause: the lightning is a triggering event, and the dry summer and the dead wood are long-term causes. Ask: "Would a different spark, such as a campfire, have done the same thing?" Tell students that historians argue about questions like that one for the war of 1914.
Direct Instruction20-25 minutes
Give the frame in three minutes. In 1914 the great powers of Europe were grouped in rival alliances: the Triple Alliance of Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy, and the Dual Alliance of France and Russia, with the British "understandings" with France and Russia (Source 5). Austria-Hungary ruled Bosnia and Herzegovina, where many Serbs lived (Source 1). On June 28, 1914, the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne was killed in the Bosnian city of Sarajevo, and 37 days later German troops were in Belgium and Britain had sent Germany an ultimatum (timeline table).
Sorting a cause: four questions (an SVHS teaching tool)
Question
Points to a long-term cause
Points to a triggering event
How long did it act before the outcome?
Years or decades
Hours, days or a few weeks
What does it explain?
Why the outcome became possible or likely
Why the outcome began at that moment and in that place
What kind of thing is it?
A condition shared by many people or states: an alliance, a rivalry, a movement
A specific act or decision by a few people
Could another event have played its part?
Usually not: other conditions would have to change
Historians argue about this; if another crisis could have served, the long-term causes carry more weight
From the triggering event to war, June 28 to August 4, 1914 (selected entries from the "Diary of the Events Leading to the War" in Why We Are at War, Oxford, 1914, chapter IV)
Date (1914)
Event, as the Oxford diary records it
June 28
Assassination at Sarajevo of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand and the Duchess of Hohenberg
July 23
Austria presents her Note to Servia giving her 48 hours in which to accept
July 25
Servian reply; considered unsatisfactory by Austria-Hungary
July 28
Austria-Hungary declares war on Servia
July 29
Russian mobilization in the four military districts of Odessa, Kiev, Moscow, and Kazan
July 31
General Russian mobilization ordered; Germany presents ultimatum to Russia demanding that her mobilization should cease within 12 hours
Aug. 1
Orders issued for general mobilization of French army; orders issued for general mobilization of German army
Aug. 2
Germans invade Luxemburg
Aug. 4
Germans enter Belgian territory; Britain presents an ultimatum to Germany demanding an answer by midnight
Read Source 1. Reynolds edited a multi-volume American history of the war, published in New York in 1916. Ask students to mark long-term causes in one color and the triggering event in another.
1It was the boast of the greater European powers, during the Balkan Wars of 1912 and 1913, and after, that the "conflagration in the Balkans had been localized"--i.e., that none of the western nations would be involved in the complications growing out of the trouble in the Balkans. The conflagration in the mountainous peninsula had been "localized," it was true; but the smouldering fire that remained after the Balkan Wars was to flare forth, during the summer of 1914, to spread over Europe from the Shetland Islands to Crete in one grand flame, and to drop sparks on the remaining four continents. That smouldering fire was the doctrine known as Greater Serbianism, sometimes wrongly spoken of as Pan-Serbianism.
[...]
2But Austria, too, had the disease of Nationalism, and she had been engaged since 1908 in "ironing out" the Serbs within her borders. Thus great friction was engendered, and when, on June 28, 1914, the Archduke Francis Ferdinand, the crown prince and his morganatic wife visited the Bosnian city of Sarajevo, they and the officials of the city and province knew that the lives of the pair were in danger from Serbian intrigue.
3The archduke had gone to Bosnia on his first visit to take charge of military maneuvers there, and before he left the Austrian capital the Serbian minister had expressed doubt as to the wisdom of the visit, telling the court that the Serbian population in Bosnia might make unfavorable demonstrations. The fears of the Serbian minister proved to be well founded; Sarajevo displayed many Serbian flags on the day of his arrival. The archduke's party, in automobiles, proceeded to the Town Hall after leaving the railway station, passing through crowded streets. The city officials were gathered at the Town Hall to give him an official welcome. A bomb, hurled from a roof, fell into the archduke's car; he caught it and threw it to the pavement, where it exploded, doing no damage to either him or his wife, but injuring two adjutants in the car following. One Gabrinovics, a Serbian from Trebinje, was arrested as the assailant.
4The archduke proceeded to the Town Hall, and after berating the city officials listened to the speeches of welcome. As he and his wife were departing a Serbian student, named Prinzip, who was later arrested, rushed out from the crowd and fired point-blank at the couple with a revolver. Both were hit a number of times and died some hours later from their wounds.
Francis J. Reynolds, editor, The Story of the Great War, vol. 1, chapter XX, "Assassination of Franz Ferdinand: Austria's Ultimatum" (Source 1: an American editor's account of the background and the assassination; one cut marked [...]) (1916). Public domain (published 1916). Source text.
Read Source 2. In August 1914 the German Foreign Office issued this "White Book" to explain Germany's decisions to the world; Britain's Oxford historians reprinted its official English version in full because, they wrote, it was "difficult of access." Point out that the text is the German government's own case.
1On June 28th the Austro-Hungarian successor to the throne, Arch-Duke Franz Ferdinand, and his wife, the Duchess of Hohenberg, were assassinated by a member of a band of servian conspirators. The investigation of the crime through the Austro-Hungarian authorities has yielded the fact that the conspiracy against the life of the Arch-Duke and successor to the throne was prepared and abetted in Belgrade with the cooperation of Servian officials, and executed with arms from the Servian State arsenal. This crime must have opened the eyes of the entire civilized world, not only in regard to the aims of the Servian policies directed against the conservation and integrity of the Austro-Hungarian monarchy, but also concerning the criminal means which the pan-Serb propaganda in Servia had no hesitation in employing for the achievement of these aims.
2The goal of these policies was the gradual revolutionizing and final separation of the south-easterly districts from the Austro-Hungarian monarchy and their union with Servia. This direction of Servias policy has not been altered in the least in spite of the repeated and solemn declarations of Servia in which it vouchsafed a change in these policies toward Austria-Hungary as well as the cultivation of good and neighborly relations.
3In this manner for the third time in the course of the last 6 years Servia has led Europe to the brink of a world-war.
4It could only do this because it believed itself supported in its intentions by Russia.
[...]
5Under these circumstances it was clear to Austria that it was not compatible with the dignity and the spirit of self-preservation of the monarchy to view idly any longer this agitation across the border. The Imperial and Royal Government appraised Germany of this conception and asked for our opinion. With all our heart we were able to agree with our allys estimate of the situation, and assure him that any action considered necessary to end the movement in Servia directed against the conservation of the monarchy would meet with our approval.
6We were perfectly aware that a possible warlike attitude of Austria-Hungary against Servia might bring Russia upon the field, and that it might therefore involve us in a war, in accordance with our duty as allies. We could not, however, in these vital interests of Austria-Hungary, which were at stake, advise our ally to take a yielding attitude not compatible with his dignity, nor deny him our assistance in these trying days. We could do this all the less as our own interests were menaced through the continued Serb agitation. If the Serbs continued with the aid of Russia and France to menace the existence of Austria-Hungary, the gradual collapse of Austria and the subjection of all the Slavs under one Russian sceptre would be the consequence, thus making untenable the position of the Teutonic race in Central Europe. A morally weakened Austria under the pressure of Russian pan-slavism would be no longer an ally on whom we could count and in whom we could have confidence, as we must be able to have, in view of the ever more menacing attitude of our easterly and westerly neighbors. We, therefore, permitted Austria a completely free hand in her action towards Servia but have not participated in her preparations.
German Foreign Office, as reprinted by the Oxford Faculty of Modern History, "Germany's Reasons for War with Russia," the German White Book, Foreign Office, Berlin, August 1914 (Source 2: the German government's account; one cut marked [...]) (1914). Public domain (published 1914). Source text.
Model the distinction with the worked examples. Stress that every source here is also making an argument about causes, so students should ask what each author gains by giving more weight to the long-term causes or to the trigger.
Reading a historian's metaphor (Source 1, paragraph 1)
Reynolds writes that the "smouldering fire that remained after the Balkan Wars was to flare forth, during the summer of 1914," and names that fire as "the doctrine known as Greater Serbianism."
Result: The smouldering fire is a long-term cause: a nationalist movement that had been building since before the Balkan Wars of 1912 and 1913. The flare in the summer of 1914 is the moment a triggering event set it off. Reynolds's image is itself an argument: it gives the long-term cause most of the weight and makes the trigger a spark.
How one side builds a trigger into a long-term story (Source 2, paragraphs 1 and 3)
The German White Book calls the killings at Sarajevo a crime "prepared and abetted in Belgrade" and then says that "for the third time in the course of the last 6 years Servia has led Europe to the brink of a world-war."
Result: The White Book treats the assassination as the trigger but places it inside a long-term pattern blamed on Serbia. Six years back from 1914 is 1908. Placing the trigger inside a pattern serves the German argument: if the danger came from Serbia's long-term policy, Austria-Hungary's response looks like defense.
Finding the chain inside one paragraph (Source 2, paragraph 5)
The White Book says Austria could no longer "view idly any longer this agitation across the border," that the Imperial and Royal Government asked Germany "for our opinion," and that Germany answered that any necessary action "would meet with our approval."
Result: The "agitation across the border" is a long-term condition, at least as Germany saw it. Austria's request and Germany's approval are different: they are decisions made after the trigger, so they belong to the chain between the assassination and the war. One paragraph can contain both kinds of cause, and an argument has to sort them.
Measuring the chain from trigger to war (the timeline table)
The Oxford diary dates the assassination June 28, Austria-Hungary's declaration of war on Serbia July 28, and the German entry into Belgium and Britain's ultimatum August 4.
Result: June 28 to July 28 is 30 days; June 28 to August 4 is 2 + 31 + 4 = 37 days. The war did not follow the trigger at once. A month of decisions came in between, so an argument must say how the trigger led to war through those decisions, not just that it came first.
Guided Practice15 minutes
Read Source 3, Serbia's reply to Austria-Hungary's note of July 23. Austria-Hungary judged the reply unsatisfactory (timeline table). In pairs, students answer: (a) What does Serbia's government say about the period since March 31, 1909? (b) How does the reply describe Serbia's part in the investigation of the crime? (c) Is the reply itself a long-term cause, the trigger, or a step in the chain? Then run Activity 1.
1A few minutes before 6 p. m., July 25, 1914, the Serbian Government made its reply to the Austrian note.
2This declared that no attempts had been made, or declarations uttered, by responsible representatives of Serbia, tending to subvert Austro-Hungarian rule in Bosnia and Herzegovina, since March 31, 1909, when protests against the annexation of these countries made in the Skupshtina (Serbian Parliament) were cut short by declarations of the Serbian Government. It drew attention to the fact that Austria-Hungary had since then made no complaint in this connection save in regard to a school book, concerning which it had received an entirely satisfactory explanation.
3"Serbia has several times given proofs of her pacific and moderate policy during the Balkan crisis, and it is thanks to Serbia and to the sacrifice that she has made in the exclusive interest of European peace that that peace has been preserved. The Royal Government cannot be held responsible for manifestations of a private character, such as articles in the press and the peaceable work of societies--manifestations which take place in nearly all countries in the ordinary course of events, and which, as a general rule, escape official control. The Royal Government are all the less responsible, in view of the fact that at the time of the solution of a series of questions which arose between Serbia and Austria-Hungary they gave proof of a great readiness to oblige, and thus succeeded in settling the majority of these questions to the advantage of the two neighboring countries.
4"For these reasons the Royal Government have been pained and surprised at the statements, according to which members of the Kingdom of Serbia are supposed to have participated in the preparations for the crime committed at Sarajevo; the Royal Government expected to be invited to collaborate in an investigation of all that concerns this crime, and they were ready, in order to prove the entire correctness of their attitude, to take measures against any persons concerning whom representations were made to them. [...]
Government of Serbia, as printed by Francis J. Reynolds, editor, Serbia's Reply to the Austro-Hungarian Note, July 25, 1914 (Source 3: the editor's summary of the opening, then the reply's own words; one cut marked [...]) (1914; this edition 1916). Public domain (published 1916). Source text.
Key. (a) Paragraph 2 says no responsible Serbian representatives had tried to undermine Austro-Hungarian rule in Bosnia and Herzegovina since March 31, 1909, and that Austria-Hungary had complained since then only about a school book. Serbia is answering the long-term charge that the White Book makes. (b) Paragraph 4 says the government "expected to be invited to collaborate in an investigation" and was ready to act against any persons named. (c) The reply is a step in the chain of July decisions: it came 27 days after the trigger and was followed by Austria-Hungary's declaration of war three days later.
Independent Practice15-20 minutes
Students read Source 4 on their own. William II was the German emperor in 1914; he gave up the throne at the end of the war and published these memoirs in 1922. Each student writes a paragraph answering: Which long-term causes does he name, and how does he treat the events of July 1914? How might his position in 1914, and in 1922, shape that choice? Then run Activity 2 if time allows.
1[...] The apparent complicity in the crisis of July, 1914, should deceive nobody. The telegrams exchanged at that time between the Cabinets of the great powers and their rulers, the activities of the statesmen and leading private individuals in verbal negotiations with important personages of the Entente, were certainly of the greatest importance on account of the decisive significance assumed by almost every word when it came from responsible lips, by every line that was written or telegraphed. The essential basis of the causes of the war, however, is not altered by such things; it is firmly established, and people must never hesitate from freeing it, calmly and with an eye to realities, from the bewildering outcroppings from the events accompanying the outbreak of war.
2The general situation of the German Empire in the period before the war had become continually more brilliant, and for that very reason continually more difficult from the point of view of foreign politics. Unprecedented progress in industry, commerce, and world traffic had made Germany prosperous. The curve of our development tended steadily upward.
3The concomitant of this peaceful penetration of a considerable part of the world's markets, to which German diligence and our achievements justly entitled us, was bound to be disagreeable to older nations of the world, particularly to England. This is quite a natural phenomenon, having nothing remarkable about it. Nobody is pleased when a competitor suddenly appears and obliges one to look on while the old customers desert to him. For this reason I cannot reproach the British Empire because of English ill humor at Germany's progress in the world's markets.
[...]
4In France the idea of revenge had been sedulously cultivated ever since 1870-71; it was fostered, with every possible variation, in literary, political, and military writings, in the officer corps, in schools, associations, political circles.
[...]
5Thus England, France, and Russia had, though for different reasons, an aim in common--viz., to overthrow Germany. England wished to do so for commercial-political reasons, France on account of her policy of revenge, Russia because she was a satellite of France and also for reasons of internal politics and because she wished to reach the southern sea. These three great nations, therefore, were bound to act together. The union of these ambitions in a common course of action, duly planned, is what we call the "policy of encirclement."
William II, former German Emperor, translated by Thomas R. Ybarra, The Kaiser's Memoirs, chapter XIV, "The Question of Guilt" (Source 4: the former German emperor's view, written after the war; cuts marked [...]) (1922). Public domain (published 1922). Source text.
Closure10 minutes
Run Activity 3 with Source 6, a sample argument SVHS wrote for this lesson. It contains four errors on purpose.
(1) The First World War had one long-term cause and one triggering event. (2) The trigger was the alliance system, which pulled the great powers into the war in the first days of August 1914. (3) The long-term cause was nationalism in the Balkans, which Reynolds calls a "smouldering fire" (Source 1, paragraph 1).
(4) The Kaiser proves that the crisis of July 1914 did not matter, because he writes that "The apparent complicity in the crisis of July, 1914, should deceive nobody" (Source 4, paragraph 1). (5) So the assassination at Sarajevo was not really a cause at all, and the war would have started that summer anyway.
SVHS (sample student work written for this page), A Sample Argument with Four Errors (Source 6: SVHS-written sample student paragraph, flawed on purpose, for Activity 3). Original passage written for this page.
Exit ticket: "Write one sentence that names a long-term cause of the war of 1914 and one that names the triggering event, and add a third sentence saying which one your argument will give more weight, and why." Hand out Source 5 for the homework.
1Even at the risk of being tedious it is essential that we should sketch in outline the events which have produced the present grouping of belligerent states, and the long-drawn-out preparations which have equipped them for conflict on this colossal scale. To understand why Austria-Hungary and Germany have thrown down the glove to France and Russia, why England has intervened not only as the protector of Belgium, but also as the friend of France, we must go back to the situation created by the Franco-German War. Starting from that point, we must notice in order the formation of the Triple Alliance between Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Italy, of the Dual Alliance between France and Russia, of the Anglo-French and the Anglo-Russian understandings. The Triple Alliance has been the grand cause of the present situation; not because such a grouping of the Central European Powers was objectionable, but because it has inspired over-confidence in the two leading allies; because they have traded upon the prestige of their league to press their claims East and West with an intolerable disregard for the law of nations. Above all it was the threatening attitude of Germany towards her Western neighbours that drove England forward step by step in a policy of precautions which, she hoped, would avert a European conflagration, and which her rivals have attempted to represent as stages in a Machiavellian design to ruin Germany's well-being. These precautions, so obviously necessary that they were continued and expanded by the most pacific Government which England has seen since Mr. Gladstone's retirement, have taken two forms: that of diplomatic understandings, and that of naval preparations. Whichever form they have taken, they have been adopted in response to definite provocations, and to threats which it was impossible to overlook. They have been strictly and jealously measured by the magnitude of the peril immediately in view. In her diplomacy England has given no blank cheques; in her armaments she has cut down expenditure to the minimum that, with reasonable good fortune, might enable her to defend this country and English sea-borne trade against any probable combination of hostile Powers.
2Let us consider (1) the development of the diplomatic situation since 1870, (2) the so-called race of armaments since 1886.
Members of the Oxford Faculty of Modern History, Why We Are at War: Great Britain's Case, chapter II, "The Growth of Alliances and the Race of Armaments since 1871" (Source 5, for homework: the opening two paragraphs) (1914). Public domain (published 1914). Source text.
Teacher notes. (1) The sources describe a killing: the archduke and his wife died of their wounds (Source 1). Treat it with care and keep the focus on how causes are argued. (2) Every source here was written by a side in the conflict or during it: the German government and the former emperor defend Germany, Serbia's government defends Serbia, the Oxford historians state "Great Britain's case," and Reynolds wrote in New York in 1916, far from the fighting. Present each as a perspective to be weighed, not as the verdict. No French or Russian source is printed here, so the former emperor's statements about French and Russian aims (Source 4) are one side's claims; say so when students use them. (3) The sources use the national, ethnic and racial language of their time, such as "Teutonic race," "pan-Serb" and "Slavs." "Teutonic race" (Source 2) treats the German-speaking peoples as a race, and sets it against the "Slavs" (peoples who speak Slavic languages, such as Russians, Serbs, Czechs and Poles). The belief that Europe's peoples were rival races was common in 1914 and is rejected today; "pan-Serb" refers to the movement to unite all Serbs in one state. Discuss these words as evidence of how nationalism and racial thinking shaped the way people saw the crisis, not as accurate descriptions of peoples. (4) Reynolds calls the attackers "Serbian." Princip and Gabrinovics (in modern spelling, Čabrinović) were Bosnian Serbs, born in Bosnia and so subjects of Austria-Hungary, which tried them at Sarajevo in October 1914. Historians have since documented that members of a secret Serbian nationalist society, Unification or Death (the "Black Hand"), whose leader headed Serbian military intelligence, armed them and helped them cross the border; how much the Serbian government knew is still debated. Reynolds also wrote early, and some of his details differ from later accounts: each victim was hit by one bullet, and both died within an hour. (5) Which country bore the most responsibility for the war was disputed from the start, as these sources show; the rubric scores how students distinguish and weigh causes, not the side they take.
Differentiation Strategies
For Struggling Students
Give a two-column organizer, "fuel (long-term)" and "spark (trigger)," with a third narrow column for "steps in between"
Read Sources 1 and 2 in chunks and pre-teach: alliance, nationalism, ultimatum, mobilization (calling up an army for war), annexation, propaganda, complicity and encirclement
Offer a claim frame: "Although ___ triggered the war in 1914, the deeper cause was ___, because ___ (Source _)."
For Advanced Students
Ask them to argue the opposite weighting from their first claim, giving most weight to the July 1914 decisions, and compare the two arguments
Have them compare how Source 2 (1914) and Source 4 (1922), both German, weigh the trigger, and explain the change
Challenge them to find a step in the timeline table that could be argued to be a second trigger, and defend the choice
Assessment Guidance
What to Look For
Strong arguments name at least two long-term causes and the triggering event and never mix the two categories. They explain how the trigger led to war through the decisions of July 1914, weigh the two kinds of cause explicitly, cite sources from more than one side, and note each author's position. Watch for students who treat a source's claim of blame as settled fact, or who drop the trigger entirely once they find long-term causes.
02
Classroom Activities
3 Activities
1
Fuel, Spark or Chain?
15 minPairs
Each pair gets 12 cards drawn from Sources 1-5 and the timeline table, and a mat with three areas: long-term cause (fuel), triggering event (spark), and step in the chain of July 1914 decisions. Pairs place every card, write the source on it, and mark any card they disagree about with a question mark.
The 12 Cards
The Triple Alliance of Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy (Source 5)
The "so-called race of armaments since 1886" (Source 5)
France's "idea of revenge," cultivated "ever since 1870-71" (Source 4)
German trade's "peaceful penetration of a considerable part of the world's markets" (Source 4)
"Greater Serbianism" after the Balkan Wars of 1912 and 1913 (Source 1)
The shooting of the archduke and his wife at Sarajevo, June 28, 1914 (Source 1)
Austria-Hungary's note to Serbia with a 48-hour limit, July 23 (timeline table)
Germany gives Austria-Hungary "a completely free hand" toward Serbia (Source 2)
Serbia's reply to the note, July 25 (Source 3)
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, July 28 (timeline table)
General Russian mobilization ordered, July 31 (timeline table)
"the pan-Serb propaganda in Servia" (Source 2)
Key and Discussion
Long-term causes: cards 1-5 and 12. Triggering event: card 6. Steps in the chain: cards 7-11. Then ask each pair: "Which one card, if you removed it, would most change what happened in 1914?" and "Could any step in the chain count as a second trigger?" Some historians treat a later decision in the chain as the decisive moment; accept a placement that a pair defends with a source.
2
If the Bomb Had Missed Too
20 minGroups of 4 (two pairs)
A structured academic controversy. In each group, one pair argues Position A and the other Position B, using Sources 1-5 and the timeline. Then the pairs switch sides, and finally the group writes a joint statement. Both positions are defensible; the task is to keep long-term causes and the trigger distinct while arguing.
The Two Positions
Position A: The long-term causes made a general war likely; if the attack at Sarajevo had failed, another crisis would probably have set it off.
Position B: The trigger and the decisions after it were decisive; without them, a general war in 1914 was not certain.
Steps
Pairs find their two strongest pieces of evidence (8 minutes), each cited by source and paragraph.
Each pair presents for 2 minutes while the other pair takes notes, then restates the case to the presenters' satisfaction.
Pairs switch positions and add one new piece of evidence for the side they now argue (4 minutes).
The group writes a two-sentence statement that names at least one long-term cause and the trigger and says what the group agrees and disagrees about.
Variation
For a shorter class, run only the first round and have each student write a one-paragraph response to the position they did not argue.
3
Repair the Argument
10 minIndividual, then pairs
Students read Source 6, a sample argument SVHS wrote with four errors on purpose. They number each error, explain it in one sentence, and rewrite the paragraph so that it distinguishes long-term causes from the trigger correctly.
Teacher Key
(1) Sentence 1 says there was one long-term cause; the sources name several, among them alliances, the arms race, nationalism, trade rivalry and the French wish for revenge. (2) Sentence 2 calls the alliance system the trigger; alliances that grew over decades are a long-term cause. (3) Sentence 4 treats the Kaiser's statement as proof; it is a claim by the man who ruled Germany in 1914, written after the war, so it needs support from other evidence. (4) Sentence 5 drops the trigger as a cause and claims, with no evidence, that war would have come that summer anyway. A trigger remains a cause even when long-term causes carry more weight.
03
Diagrams & Visual Aids
2 diagrams
Diagram 1: Long-Term Developments and the Trigger, 1870-1914
An SVHS teaching diagram, drawn to scale in years. Each bar shows a development as one of the sources dates it; the dashed line marks the shooting at Sarajevo. The bars show how long each development had been at work, not how much it weighed: that is for the argument to decide.
Diagram 2: The Frame of a Causal Argument
An SVHS teaching diagram of the five parts of an argument that distinguishes long-term causes from a triggering event. Students use it to plan the homework paragraph and Question 20.
04
Homework Assignment
~30 min
D2.His.15.9-12 Homework: Building a Causal Argument about 1914
Directions: Use Source 5 (the Oxford historians, printed in the Closure phase) for Problems 1-3, and Sources 1-5 and the timeline table for Problems 4-6. Cite the source and paragraph for every piece of evidence.
Part 1: A British Interpretation (Problems 1-3)
Source 5 calls the Triple Alliance "the grand cause of the present situation." Quote the words in the paragraph that show how far back the authors trace the present grouping of states, and explain, in their words, how the Triple Alliance made a general war more likely.
Source 5 says England's precautions were "adopted in response to definite provocations." Source 4, paragraph 5, calls the same agreements a "policy of encirclement." Explain how two authors can describe the same agreements so differently, and what each description does for its author's argument.
The preface to the Oxford second edition is dated September 21, 1914. How many days was that after Britain's ultimatum to Germany on August 4? How might the date and the authors' position affect the way they weigh long-term causes against the trigger?
Part 2: Your Argument (Problems 4-6)
Write a claim of one or two sentences about the outbreak of the war in 1914 that names at least two long-term causes and the triggering event and says which kind of cause weighed more.
Find the strongest counterclaim to your claim in Sources 1-5. Quote it, explain why it is strong, and answer it in three or four sentences.
Write an argument paragraph of 8-10 sentences following the five parts in Diagram 2. Cite at least three sources, including at least one written for each side of the war, and comment on the position of at least one author.
Rubric
Criterion
Full Credit (2 pts)
Partial Credit (1 pt)
No Credit (0 pts)
Distinguishing causes
Keeps long-term causes, the trigger and the chain of decisions distinct and classifies each correctly
Distinguishes the two kinds of cause with one error
Mixes the categories
Evidence
Cites specific evidence from several sources, by source and paragraph
Cites evidence loosely or from one source
No evidence
Weighing and reasoning
Explains why one kind of cause weighed more and how the trigger led to war
States a weighting with little explanation
No weighting
Perspective and counterclaim
Notes authors' positions and answers a strong counterclaim
Mentions a position or a counterclaim but does not answer it
Neither
05
Quiz: 20 Questions
Interactive, with answers
Instructions
Question 1 uses an invented example. Questions 2-5 use Source 1 and Questions 6-9 use Source 2 (Direct Instruction). Question 10 uses Source 3 (Guided Practice). Questions 11-13 use Source 4 (Independent Practice). Question 16 uses the timeline table. Questions 14, 15 and 17-20 use more than one source. Choose the best answer for each multiple-choice question; write four to eight sentences for each short answer unless the question says otherwise.
Multiple choice: pick an option to check it. Short answer: write your answer, then reveal the model answer.
0 of 20 answered · 0 correct
Question 1 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Invented example: two neighboring towns argued for twenty years over who could use a river. In a dry August, a farmer from one town dammed the stream, and a fight broke out that week. Which is the triggering event?
Answer: C
The dam is a single act at one moment that set the fight off, so it is the trigger. The long argument (A), the climate (B) and the growth of the farms (D) are conditions that built up over time, so they are long-term causes.
Question 2 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Source 1, paragraph 3, says that "Sarajevo displayed many Serbian flags on the day of his arrival." What does this detail add to the account of the triggering event?
Answer: A
The flags show that the nationalism Reynolds describes as a long-term cause was on open display in the city on the day of the trigger. B reads far more into flags than they show. C confuses the flags with the official welcome at the Town Hall. D is wrong: the paragraph gives no starting date for the movement.
Question 3 of 20 · Multiple Choice
In Source 1, paragraph 2, Reynolds writes that Austria had been "ironing out" the Serbs within her borders since 1908, and "Thus great friction was engendered." What does the word "Thus" do in his argument?
Answer: D
"Thus" signals a result: years of Austrian policy produced friction, a long-term cause. A is wrong because no war begins in that sentence. B reverses the dates. C is wrong: Reynolds is writing in his own voice.
Question 4 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Source 1, paragraph 3, says the Serbian minister "had expressed doubt as to the wisdom of the visit." What does this detail suggest about the triggering event?
Answer: B
A warning given before the visit shows the danger was known, which ties the trigger to existing tensions. A misreads a warning as a plot. C ignores the long-term causes in paragraph 1. D contradicts the warning and the flags described in the same paragraph.
Question 5 of 20 · Multiple Choice
In Source 1, a bomb thrown at the archduke's car did "no damage to either him or his wife," and only a later attack by a student killed them. What does this sequence show about triggering events?
Answer: C
The first attempt failed and a second succeeded, so the trigger turned on chance and individual choices. A is a weighting the sequence does not prove. B is not in the source. D is wrong: paragraph 3 says he went to take charge of military maneuvers.
Question 6 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Source 2, paragraph 1, says the conspiracy "was prepared and abetted in Belgrade with the cooperation of Servian officials." How should a historian treat this sentence?
Answer: A
The sentence comes from the German government's case, so it is an accusation to be corroborated. B is false, since Serbia denied it (Source 3). C names the wrong author. D does not follow from a claim about the plot.
Question 7 of 20 · Multiple Choice
According to Source 2, paragraph 2, what was the long-term goal of the Serbian policies that the German government blamed?
Answer: D
Paragraph 2 says the goal was "the gradual revolutionizing and final separation of the south-easterly districts from the Austro-Hungarian monarchy and their union with Servia." A is not in this source. B is the opposite of the White Book's view of Serbia. C confuses a long-term goal with the events of one day.
Question 8 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Source 2, paragraph 6, ends: "We, therefore, permitted Austria a completely free hand in her action towards Servia but have not participated in her preparations." What is the purpose of the last clause?
Answer: B
Saying Germany took no part in the preparations distances it from the decisions that followed the trigger. A is false: the same paragraph calls Austria "our ally." C is not in the clause. D is the opposite of what the clause says.
Question 9 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Source 2, paragraph 6, says: "We were perfectly aware that a possible warlike attitude of Austria-Hungary against Servia might bring Russia upon the field." What does this admission show?
Answer: A
The sentence shows German leaders saw how alliances could widen a local war, linking the trigger to a long-term cause. B is false: the White Book is describing the risk before any war. C is not in the passage, and D contradicts paragraph 1, which describes the assassination.
Question 10 of 20 · Multiple Choice
In Source 3, paragraph 3, Serbia's reply says that "The Royal Government cannot be held responsible for manifestations of a private character, such as articles in the press." What is Serbia arguing?
Answer: C
Serbia separates the government from private writing and societies, answering the charge of long-term official hostility. A is not claimed. B contradicts the tone of the reply. D is the opposite of a reply that stresses Serbia's "pacific and moderate policy."
Question 11 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Source 4, paragraph 1, says of the crisis of July 1914: "The essential basis of the causes of the war, however, is not altered by such things." What position is the former emperor taking?
Answer: D
He says the July events, however important they looked, do not change the "essential basis" of the causes, so he gives the long-term causes more weight. A and C reverse his argument. B is wrong: he goes on to name the causes he means.
Question 12 of 20 · Multiple Choice
In Source 4, paragraph 3, the former emperor writes: "I cannot reproach the British Empire because of English ill humor at Germany's progress in the world's markets." How does this sentence work in his argument?
Answer: B
By granting England's annoyance is natural, he appears reasonable, which strengthens his later claim that England joined an effort "to overthrow Germany." A and C contradict the source. D is wrong: trade rivalry is one of the long-term causes he names.
Question 13 of 20 · Multiple Choice
In Source 4, paragraph 5, what reasons does the former emperor give for Russia's part in the shared aim he calls the "policy of encirclement"?
Answer: A
Paragraph 5 says Russia joined "because she was a satellite of France and also for reasons of internal politics and because she wished to reach the southern sea." B is the reason he gives for France, and C the reason he gives for England. D is not in the source.
Question 14 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Which pair of sources gives two governments' opposing accounts of who was responsible for the plot behind the triggering event?
Answer: B
The German White Book (Source 2) says the plot was prepared with the help of Serbian officials; Serbia's reply (Source 3) denies official involvement and offers to act on proof. Sources 1 and 5 are not government statements, and Source 4 is a former ruler's memoir.
Question 15 of 20 · Short Answer
Classify each of these as a long-term cause or a triggering event, and give a reason for each from its source: (a) the "policy of encirclement" (Source 4, paragraph 5); (b) the bomb hurled at the archduke's car (Source 1, paragraph 3); (c) Russia's wish "to reach the southern sea" (Source 4, paragraph 5).
Model answer: (a) Long-term cause: the former emperor describes an aim the three powers shared over years and a "union of these ambitions" that was "duly planned." (b) Part of the triggering event: it was a single act on June 28, 1914; it failed, and the shooting that followed was the trigger itself. (c) Long-term cause: an aim the former emperor gives as one of Russia's lasting reasons ("because she wished to reach the southern sea"), not a single act; it helps explain why Russia might join a war, not why the war began in the summer of 1914. Rubric: full credit for three correct classifications with a reason tied to time span or kind of cause; partial for two.
Question 16 of 20 · Short Answer
Using the timeline table, how many days passed between the assassination (June 28) and Austria-Hungary's note to Serbia (July 23)? Explain what this gap means for an argument that the assassination "caused" the war.
Model answer: 25 days (2 days left in June plus 23 in July). The gap shows the trigger did not lead to war automatically: governments spent more than three weeks deciding how to respond. An argument that the assassination caused the war must explain the decisions in between, such as the note itself and Germany's support for Austria-Hungary (Source 2, paragraph 6), and must say why the long-term causes made those decisions likely. Rubric: full credit for 25 days and a clear explanation of the chain; partial for the number or the explanation only.
Question 17 of 20 · Short Answer
Compare how Source 2 (the German White Book) and Source 3 (Serbia's reply) each connect the triggering event to longer-term issues. Use one quotation from each.
Model answer: The White Book ties the killing to "the aims of the Servian policies directed against the conservation and integrity of the Austro-Hungarian monarchy" (Source 2, paragraph 1), so the trigger becomes proof of a long-term Serbian threat. Serbia's reply answers with its own long-term record: it says it gave "proofs of her pacific and moderate policy during the Balkan crisis" (Source 3, paragraph 3). Each side uses the years before 1914 to explain the trigger in its own favor. Rubric: full credit for a comparison with one accurate quotation from each source; partial for one source only.
Question 18 of 20 · Short Answer
Reynolds (Source 1, 1916) and the former emperor (Source 4, 1922) both give most weight to long-term causes, but not the same ones. Name the long-term cause each emphasizes and suggest one reason connected to each author's position for the difference.
Model answer: Reynolds emphasizes Balkan nationalism, the "smouldering fire" of "Greater Serbianism" (paragraph 1). The former emperor emphasizes the rivalry of Germany's neighbors and their "policy of encirclement" (paragraph 5). Reynolds, an American editor writing in New York, could look first at the Balkan quarrel where the trigger happened; William II, defending his own reign, places the deep causes in other powers' aims rather than in Germany's decisions. Rubric: full credit for both causes correctly named with quotations and a reasonable link to each author's position; partial for one author.
Question 19 of 20 · Short Answer
Position A in Activity 2 says that if the attack at Sarajevo had failed, another crisis would probably have set off a general war. Write a short argument (four to six sentences) for or against Position A that keeps long-term causes and the triggering event distinct and cites two sources.
Model answer (against Position A): The long-term causes were real: Reynolds describes a "smouldering fire" of nationalism (Source 1, paragraph 1), and the alliances and arms race had been building since 1871 and 1886 (Source 5). But the German White Book itself says Serbia had led Europe to the brink twice before in six years (Source 2, paragraph 3), and those crises ended without a general war. So the long-term causes made war possible but not certain; the trigger and the decisions of July 1914 turned possibility into war. Rubric: full credit for a clear position, both kinds of cause kept distinct, and two cited sources; either position earns full credit if argued this way; partial for a position with one source or blurred categories.
Question 20 of 20 · Short Answer
Write a thesis statement (two or three sentences) for an essay on the outbreak of the war of 1914 that names at least one long-term cause and the triggering event, states which mattered more, and names two sources you would use.
Model answer: "The shooting at Sarajevo on June 28, 1914, triggered the war, but it became a general war because of long-term causes: rival alliances and an arms race that had grown for decades. I will use the Oxford historians (Source 5) for the alliances and Reynolds (Source 1) for the shooting at Sarajevo and the tensions behind it." Other weightings earn full credit if the thesis keeps the two kinds of cause distinct. Rubric: full credit for both kinds of cause, a clear weighting and two relevant sources; partial if one element is missing.
0 of 20 answered · 0 correct
06
Frequently Asked Questions
10 Questions
What does D2.His.15.9-12 mean?
D2.His.15.9-12 asks high school students to distinguish between long-term causes and triggering events in developing a historical argument. Students separate conditions that built up over years from the specific event that set an outcome off, and then use that distinction to argue about why something happened. It is a history indicator in Dimension 2 of the C3 Framework, in the group on causation and argumentation.
What is the difference between a long-term cause and a triggering event?
A long-term cause is a condition that develops over years and makes an outcome possible or likely; a triggering event is a specific event that sets the outcome off at a particular time. Long-term causes usually explain why something happened at all, while a trigger explains why it happened when and where it did.
How is D2.His.15.9-12 different from D2.His.15.6-8?
D2.His.15.6-8 asks students to evaluate the relative influence of various causes. D2.His.15.9-12 asks for a more specific distinction, between long-term causes and triggering events, and places it inside the work of developing a historical argument. High school students must use the distinction to make and defend a claim, not just to rank causes.
Why is the First World War used to teach D2.His.15.9-12?
The outbreak of war in 1914 has a well-known trigger, the assassination at Sarajevo, and many long-term causes named by people at the time, such as alliances, an arms race and nationalism. Sources written for each side survive from 1914 onward, so students can see how different authors weighed the two kinds of cause. The same skills work for revolutions, economic crises and other events with a clear spark.
Is the triggering event less important than the long-term causes?
Not necessarily: the weighting is what the argument must decide. Some arguments give most weight to long-term conditions; others stress the trigger and the decisions that followed it. The standard asks students to keep the two kinds of cause distinct while they argue, and to support whichever weighting they choose.
What are the steps between a trigger and an outcome called?
They are often called short-term causes or a chain of events. In 1914, the chain ran from the assassination through Austria-Hungary's note to Serbia, Serbia's reply, declarations of war and mobilizations. Strong arguments explain how the trigger led to the outcome through these steps.
How is D2.His.15.9-12 assessed?
D2.His.15.9-12 is usually assessed through source-based writing: a thesis, an argument paragraph or an essay that classifies causes and weighs them with evidence. Short items can also ask students to classify a development or to explain how an author weighs causes. Rubrics score the reasoning and evidence, not which position the student takes.
What mistakes do students make with long-term causes and triggers?
A frequent mistake is calling a long-standing condition, such as an alliance system, the trigger. Others include dropping the trigger entirely once long-term causes are found, treating a participant's account of blame as neutral fact, and claiming an outcome was inevitable without evidence. Asking "how long did this act before the outcome?" catches many of these.
Why does this lesson use sources from both sides of the war?
Every source about 1914 was written by someone with a stake in the answer. Reading the German government, the Serbian government, the former German emperor, British historians and an American editor side by side shows how each author's position shaped the weight given to long-term causes or to the trigger. Students learn to treat each as a perspective to be weighed.
How does D2.His.15.9-12 connect to other history standards?
It builds on D2.His.14.9-12, which asks students to analyze multiple and complex causes and effects, and it feeds D2.His.16.9-12, which asks them to integrate evidence from multiple sources and interpretations into a reasoned argument. It also pairs with RH.11-12.3, on evaluating explanations for events against textual evidence.
07
Related Standards
5 standards
These standards connect to D2.His.15.9-12: prerequisites to review first, parallel standards at the same level, and next steps that build on it.
Before this lesson
D2.His.15.6-8Prerequisite
Evaluate the relative influence of various causes of events and developments in the past
Integrate evidence from sources and interpretations into a reasoned argument
Lesson coming soon
Standard text: National Council for the Social Studies (NCSS), The College, Career, and Civic Life (C3) Framework for Social Studies State Standards: Guidance for Enhancing the Rigor of K-12 Civics, Economics, Geography, and History (Silver Spring, MD: NCSS, 2013). NCSS was not involved in the production of this lesson and does not endorse it.