D2.His.15.6-8: Weighing the Causes of the Spanish Armada's Defeat, 1588
In plain English: D2.His.15.6-8 is the C3 Framework history indicator for grades 6-8 that asks students to evaluate the relative influence of various causes of events and developments in the past. Students decide which causes mattered most and which mattered less, test each cause with evidence from sources, and explain their ranking, for example for the defeat of the Spanish Armada in 1588.
Evaluate the relative influence of various causes of events and developments in the past.
C3 Framework for Social Studies (NCSS) · Dimension 2: Applying Disciplinary Concepts and Tools · Discipline: History · Causation and Argumentation · Official standard
A cause is something that helps make an event happen. Most events have several causes, and historians ask which ones mattered most. That is what D2.His.15.6-8 asks students to do: evaluate the relative influence of various causes, meaning how much each cause mattered compared with the others. In this lesson students weigh the causes of the defeat of the Spanish Armada (a large fleet, or group, of warships) in 1588, when King Philip II of Spain tried to send an army into England.
Students read four sources: two passages by the historian William Wood (1918), a letter by Francisco de Cuellar, a Spanish captain who sailed with the Armada (1589), and a lecture by the historian James Anthony Froude (1895). They use four Cause Tests (remove, reach, link and evidence) and learn that the answer depends on which outcome (the result being explained) they explain: the failure to land an army in England, or the heavy losses on the voyage home. They finish by ranking the causes as major, contributing (it helped, but could not have produced the outcome alone) or minor, and defending the ranking with evidence.
Learning Objectives
By the end of this lesson, students will be able to:
Explain what it means to evaluate the relative influence of causes
Apply four Cause Tests (remove, reach, link and evidence) to a cause of a historical event
Use evidence from primary and secondary sources to judge whether a cause was major, contributing or minor
Explain why the weight of a cause can change depending on which outcome is being explained
Rank the causes of the Armada's defeat and defend the ranking in writing with cited evidence
Prior Knowledge Required
Students should already be comfortable with:
Explaining multiple causes and effects of events and developments in the past D2.His.14.6-8
Citing specific textual evidence to support analysis of primary and secondary sources RH.6-8.1
Telling a primary source (made at the time by someone involved) from a secondary source (written later by someone studying the past)
"Your school team lost the final game. The coach blames the missed practices, the captain blames the rain, and a parent blames the referee. How could you decide which cause mattered most? Write one question you would ask about each cause."
Collect a few questions on the board. Students often ask "Would we have lost anyway?" or "Did the other team have the same rain?" Point out that these are the questions historians ask too. Name the first one the remove test: imagine the cause was missing and ask whether the result would still have happened.
Direct Instruction20 minutes
Give the background in two minutes. In 1588 King Philip II of Spain sent the Armada up the English Channel. The plan was for the fleet to meet the Duke of Parma's Spanish army in the Netherlands and carry it across to England (Wood, chapter IX). The English fleet was led by Lord Howard, with Sir Francis Drake as his chief adviser (Wood, chapter IX). The Armada never landed an army, and many of its ships were wrecked on the way home around Scotland and Ireland (Sources 3 and 5).
Introduce the four Cause Tests. Stress that an outcome is the result we are explaining, and that we must name it before we weigh causes.
The four Cause Tests (an SVHS teaching tool) for weighing the relative influence of causes
Test
The question to ask
What a strong answer shows
1. Remove test
If this cause had been missing, would the outcome probably still have happened?
If the answer is "no," the cause had a large influence
2. Reach test
How much of the outcome does this cause explain: all of it, a large part, or only a small part?
A cause that explains a large part of the outcome weighs more
3. Link test
Did this cause make other causes possible or stronger?
A cause that feeds other causes often weighs more than it first seems
4. Evidence test
Which sources support this cause, and do sources from different sides agree?
Support from several sources, and from more than one side, makes the judgment stronger
Read Source 1 aloud. Wood was a historian whose book was published by Yale University Press in 1918, so this is a secondary source written 330 years after the events. His chapter admires the English sailors, so watch for strong words about the Spanish side.
Words for Source 1.Philip: King Philip II of Spain. Enterprize of England: the Spanish name for the plan to invade England. Squadrons: groups of warships. Men-of-war: warships. Ordnance: cannons. Rigging: the ropes and masts that hold the sails. Hulls: the main bodies of ships. Troopships: ships that carry soldiers. Laid aboard: brought alongside so soldiers can jump on board. Lubberly: clumsy at sea. Santa Cruz: the skilled Spanish admiral first chosen to command the Armada. Landlubber: a person with no skill at sea. Grandee: a Spanish noble of the highest rank. Seamen gunners: sailors trained to fire a ship's cannons.
1Early and late persistent Philip slaved away upon this 'Enterprize of England.' With incredible toil he spun his web anew. The ships were collected into squadrons; the squadrons at last began to wear the semblance of a fleet. But semblance only. There were far too many soldiers and not nearly enough sailors. Instead of sending the fighting fleet to try to clear the way for the troopships coming later on, Philip mixed army and navy together. The men-of-war were not bad of their kind; but the kind was bad. They were floating castles, high out of the water, crammed with soldiers, some other landsmen, and stores, and with only light ordnance, badly distributed so as to fire at rigging and superstructures only, not at the hulls as the English did. Yet this was not the worst. The worst was that the fighting fleet was cumbered with troopships which might have been useful in boarding, but which were perfectly useless in fighting of any other kind—and the English men-of-war were much too handy to be laid aboard by the lubberly Spanish troopships. Santa Cruz worked himself to death. In one of his last dispatches he begged for more and better guns. All Philip could do was to authorize the purchase of whatever guns the foreign merchantmen in Lisbon harbor could be induced to sell. Sixty second-rate pieces were obtained in this way.
2Then, worn out by work and worry, Santa Cruz died, and Philip forced the command on a most reluctant landlubber, the Duke of Medina Sidonia, a very great grandee of Spain, but wholly unfitted to lead a fleet. [...] The sailors were now not only fewer than ever—sickness and desertion had been thinning their ranks—but many of these few were unfit for the higher kinds of seamanship, while only the merest handful of them were qualified as seamen gunners.
William Wood, Elizabethan Sea-Dogs, chapter IX, "Drake and the Spanish Armada" (Source 1: how Spain prepared the Armada; one cut marked [...]) (1918). Public domain (published 1918). Source text.
Read Source 2, also by Wood. Ask students to underline every number and to notice who supplied it.
Words for Source 2.Tonnage: a measure of a ship's size. Armament: the guns a ship carries. Handier: easier to steer and turn. Ranks and ratings: officers and ordinary crew. Marines: soldiers trained to fight at sea. Armed transports: cargo or troop ships with a few guns. Parma: the Duke of Parma, who commanded Spain's army in the Netherlands. Fire-ships: old ships set on fire and sent drifting toward an enemy fleet. Flood: the rising tide. Weigh: pull up the anchor. Cables: the thick ropes that hold the anchors.
1In actual size and numbers the Spaniards were superior at first. But as the week-long running fight progressed the English evened up with reinforcements. Spanish vessels looked bigger than their tonnage, being high built; and Spanish official reports likewise exaggerated the size because their system of measurement made their three tons equal to an English four. In armament and seamen-gunners the English were perhaps five times as strong as the Armada—and seamen-gunners won the day. The English seamen greatly outnumbered the Spanish seamen, utterly surpassed them in seamanship, and enjoyed the further advantage of having far handier vessels to work. The Spanish grand total, for all ranks and ratings was thirty thousand men; the English, only fifteen. But the Spaniards were six thousand short on arrival; and their actual seamen, many of whom were only half-trained, then numbered a bare seven thousand. The seventeen thousand soldiers only made the ships so many death-traps; for they were of no use afloat except as boarding parties—and no boarding whatever took place. The English fifteen thousand, on the other hand, were three-quarters seamen and one-quarter soldiers who were mostly trained as marines, and this total was actually present. On the whole, it is hardly an exaggeration to say that the Armada was mostly composed of armed transports while all the English vessels that counted in the fighting were real men-of-war.
2[...] The Armada had anchored at Calais to get its breath before running the gauntlet for the last time and joining Parma in the Netherlands. But in the dead of night, when the flood was making and a strong west wind was blowing in the same direction as the swirling tidal stream, nine English fire-ships suddenly burst into flame and made for the Spanish anchorage. There were no boats ready to grapple the fire-ships and tow them clear. There was no time to weigh; for every vessel had two anchors down. Sidonia, enraged that the boats were not out on patrol, gave the order for the whole fleet to cut their cables and make off for their lives. As the great lumbering hulls, which had of course been riding head to wind, swung round in the dark and confusion, several crashing collisions occurred. Next morning the Armada was strung along the Flemish coast in disorderly flight.
William Wood, Elizabethan Sea-Dogs, chapter IX (Source 2: the two fleets, and the fire-ships at Calais; cuts marked [...]) (1918). Public domain (published 1918). Source text.
Read Source 3. Cuellar was a Spanish captain who sailed with the Armada. He wrote this letter in Antwerp in 1589, after escaping from Ireland, so it is a primary source. In a part of the letter not printed here, he says he was sentenced to death during the campaign and then spared, so he had reasons to defend himself and to blame others.
Words for Source 3.Galleon: a large sailing warship. Shot-holes: holes made by cannon balls. The Duke: the Duke of Medina Sidonia, commander of the Armada. In retirement: shut away in his cabin. Ordered and countermanded: gave orders and then cancelled them. Succour: help. Chivalry and flower: the noblest and best men. Camp-master: an army officer who commanded a regiment of soldiers. League: an old measure of distance, roughly three miles. On our beam: hitting the side of the ship.
1The galleon San Pedro, in which I sailed, received much injury from many heavy cannon balls, which the enemy lodged in her in various parts; and although they were repaired as well as was possible at the time, there were still some hidden shot-holes through which much water entered.
[...]
2The Duke heard nothing of all this, because, as I say, he was in retirement. Señor Don Francisco Bovadilla alone was he who ordered and countermanded in the Armada; and by him, and others, whose evil deeds are well known, all was managed.
[...]
3I remained in his ship, in which we were in imminent danger of death, because she opened so much with a storm which sprang up that she continually filled with water, and we could not dry her out with the pumps. We had neither remedy nor succour, except it was from God; for the Duke still did not appear, and all the Armada proceeded, scattered in such manner by the storm that some ships went to Germany, others drove on the islands of Holland and Zealand into the enemies' hands, others went to Shetland, others to Scotland, where they were lost and burned. More than twenty were lost in the Kingdom of Ireland, with all the chivalry and flower of the Armada.
[...]
4In these came Don Diego Enriquez, [...] as camp-master; and not being able to weather [round or double] Cape Clear (?), in Ireland, on account of the severe storm which arose upon the bow, he was forced to make for the land with these three ships, which, as I say, were of the largest size, and to anchor more than half a league from the shore, where we remained for four days without being able to make any provision, nor could it even be made.
5On the fifth [day] there sprang up so great a storm on our beam, with a sea up to the heavens, so that the cables could not hold nor the sails serve us, and we were driven ashore with all three ships upon a beach, covered with very fine sand, shut in on one side and the other by great rocks.
6Such a thing was never seen: for within the space of an hour all three ships were broken in pieces, so that there did not escape three hundred men, and more than one thousand were drowned, among them many persons of importance--captains, gentlemen, and other officials.
Francisco de Cuellar, translated by Robert Crawford, Letter of Captain Francisco de Cuellar, written at Antwerp, October 4, 1589 (Source 3: a Spanish captain on the damage, the command and the storm; cuts marked [...]) (1589; this edition 1897). Public domain (published 1897). Source text.
Model the Cause Tests with the four worked examples below. Think aloud, and write the outcome being explained at the top of each example.
Remove test: the Spanish plan (Source 1, paragraph 1)
Wood writes that the Spanish fleet had "far too many soldiers and not nearly enough sailors," because Philip "mixed army and navy together." Ask: if Spain had sent its warships first, with full crews, would the defeat still have happened in the same way?
Result: Probably not in the same way. A fleet built to fight at sea first, without troopships, would have had more sailors and gunners. So the Spanish plan passes the remove test as an important cause, though by itself it does not explain the storms on the way home.
Link test: how the plan fed another cause (Sources 1 and 2)
Source 2, paragraph 1, says the Spanish soldiers "were of no use afloat except as boarding parties - and no boarding whatever took place." Source 1 says the warships were "crammed with soldiers" and carried "only light ordnance."
Result: The plan linked to the fighting at sea: ships full of soldiers but short of heavy guns could only win by boarding (coming alongside so soldiers can jump onto the enemy ship), and the English never let them come close. The Spanish plan made the English gun advantage count for more, so it weighs more than it first seems.
Two outcomes: the storms (Source 3, paragraphs 1 and 6)
Captain Cuellar says his galleon had "hidden shot-holes through which much water entered," and later that when his group of ships was driven ashore in Ireland "more than one thousand were drowned." An outcome is the result we are explaining.
Result: Separate two outcomes. For the deaths on the voyage home, the storm had a large reach: it wrecked ships and drowned men. The shot-holes in Cuellar's first galleon suggest a possible link, since English cannon fire left some ships damaged before the storms. But the ship wrecked under him was a different one, so that link needs more evidence. A cause can weigh a lot for one outcome and little for another.
Evidence test with numbers (Source 2, paragraph 1)
Wood gives the Spanish fleet 30,000 men on paper but 6,000 short on arrival, with "a bare seven thousand" seamen. The English had 15,000 men, "three-quarters seamen."
Result: 30,000 - 6,000 = 24,000 Spaniards present, of whom 24,000 - 7,000 = 17,000 were soldiers. Three-quarters of 15,000 is 11,250 English seamen. England had about 4,250 more seamen, with half as many men as Spain's total on paper. This supports the cause of English seamanship (skill at handling ships), but all the figures come from one writer, who admires the English side, so the evidence test asks us to check them against another source.
Guided Practice15 minutes
Run Activity 1 (Cause Card Sort) for about 10 minutes. Then read Source 4 together. Froude was a professor of modern history at Oxford University, where he gave these lectures in 1893 and 1894. Pairs apply all four Cause Tests to one cause, the Armada's food and water supplies, using paragraph 2 only, and decide whether it was a major, contributing or minor cause of each outcome.
Words for Source 4.Overthrow: defeat. Orkneys: islands north of Scotland. Tedious: long and dull. Provisions: food supplies. Lisbon and Corunna: ports where the Armada loaded supplies. Stowed: packed away. Smacks: small fishing boats. Carcases: dead bodies of animals. The Upper Powers and Heaven: God. The Almighty: God.
1[...] There was an appropriateness, therefore, if due to accident, that other causes besides the action of man should have combined in its overthrow.
2The Spaniards were experienced sailors; a voyage round the Orkneys and round Ireland to Spain might be tedious, but at that season of the year need not have seemed either dangerous or difficult. On inquiry, however, it was found that the condition of the fleet was seriously alarming. The provisions placed on board at Lisbon had been found unfit for food, and almost all had been thrown into the sea. The fresh stores taken in at Corunna had been consumed, and it was found that at the present rate there would be nothing left in a fortnight. Worse than all, the water-casks refilled there had been carelessly stowed. They had been shot through in the fighting and were empty; while of clothing or other comforts for the cold regions which they were entering no thought had been taken. The mules and horses were flung overboard, and Scotch smacks, which had followed the retreating fleet, reported that they had sailed for miles through floating carcases.
[...]
3The Spaniards made no attempt to conceal the greatness of their defeat. Unwilling to allow that the Upper Powers had been against them, they set it frankly down to the superior fighting powers of the English.
4The English themselves, the Prince of Parma said, were modest in their victory. They thought little of their own gallantry. To them the defeat and destruction of the Spanish fleet was a declaration of the Almighty in the cause of their country and the Protestant faith. Both sides had appealed to Heaven, and Heaven had spoken.
James Anthony Froude, English Seamen in the Sixteenth Century, lecture IX, "Defeat of the Armada" (Source 4: a historian on supplies and on how each side explained the defeat; cuts marked [...]) (1895; this edition 1896). Public domain (published 1896). Source text.
Key for the supplies cause (paragraph 2). Remove test: with good food, full water-casks and warm clothing, fewer men would have died on the long voyage north, so supplies weigh a lot for the losses on the way home. For the failed invasion, Froude reports these problems when the fleet was already heading home; the food from Lisbon had been thrown away earlier, but he does not say how it affected the fighting, so supplies are at most a contributing cause of that outcome. Reach test: the shortage threatened every ship ("there would be nothing left in a fortnight"). Link test: the water-casks "had been shot through in the fighting," so English gunfire fed this cause too. Evidence test: only one historian here; Source 3 does not mention food or drinking water, so the class should hold this judgment loosely.
Independent Practice15 minutes
Run Activity 3. Students read Source 6, a sample paragraph written by SVHS for this lesson. It contains three weak spots on purpose. Each student finds the weak spots, then writes a better ranking of three causes for one outcome they name, citing at least three sources by number and paragraph.
(1) The Spanish Armada failed to invade England because of the storms. (2) Captain Cuellar wrote that "More than twenty were lost in the Kingdom of Ireland" (Source 3, paragraph 3). (3) So the storms are the biggest cause of the failure.
(4) The English guns were a cause too. (5) Wood writes that "seamen-gunners won the day" (Source 2, paragraph 1), and Cuellar's own galleon took "many heavy cannon balls" (Source 3, paragraph 1). (6) The Spanish commanders also made bad choices all through the campaign.
(7) The fire-ships at Calais were the least important cause, because they did not sink any ships. (8) So my ranking is: storms first, English guns second, fire-ships third.
SVHS (sample student work written for this page), A Sample Ranking with Three Weak Spots (Source 6: SVHS-written sample student paragraph, flawed on purpose, for Activity 3). Original passage written for this page.
Closure5-10 minutes
Exit ticket: "Name one cause that weighs more for the losses on the voyage home than for the failed invasion. Give one piece of evidence and the test it passes."
Hand out Source 5 for the homework. It is the end of Wood's chapter.
Words for Source 5.Pursuit: the chase. To leeward of: pushed downwind past. Dunkirk: a port on the Flemish coast (Flanders, part of the Netherlands of that time). Overlordship of the sea: control of the sea. Shaking the sea-dog grip off both Americas: ending English attacks on Spain's lands and ships in the Americas. Gale: a very strong wind. Shoals: shallow places where ships run aground. Orkneys and Hebrides: islands off the north and west of Scotland. Forlorn: hopeless. Remnant: the part that was left. Straggled: arrived a few at a time.
1Drake forged ahead and led the pursuit in turn. The Spaniards fought with desperate courage, still suffering ghastly losses. But, do what they could to bear up against the English and the wind, they were forced to leeward of Dunkirk, and so out of touch with Parma. This was the result of the Battle of Gravelines, fought on Monday the 29th of July, 1588, just ten days after Captain Fleming had rushed on to the bowling green of Plymouth Hoe where Drake and Howard, their shore work done, were playing a game before embarking. In those ten days the gallant Armada had lost all chance of winning the overlordship of the sea and shaking the sea-dog grip off both Americas. A rising gale now forced it to choose between getting pounded to death on the shoals of Dunkirk or running north, [...]
2North, and still north, round by the surf-lashed Orkneys, then down the wild west coasts of the Hebrides and Ireland, went the forlorn Armada, losing ships and men at every stage, until at last the remnant straggled into Spanish ports like the mere wreckage of a storm.
William Wood, Elizabethan Sea-Dogs, chapter IX (Source 5, for homework: the Battle of Gravelines and the voyage home; one cut marked [...]) (1918). Public domain (published 1918). Source text.
Teacher notes. (1) Thousands of people died in the campaign, in battle and in shipwrecks (Wood, chapter IX; Source 3). Treat the deaths with care, and keep the focus on how historians weigh evidence. (2) The sources were written by English-speaking and Spanish writers of their own times and use the words of their times, such as "landlubber." Wood wrote in 1918 and admires the English side; Froude was an English historian of the 1890s; Cuellar was defending his own conduct. These points of view are part of what students weigh. (3) Source 3 omits a nickname for one officer that appears in the original letter; the cut is marked [...]. (4) Both fleets prayed for victory (Wood, chapter IX), and Source 4 reports how each side explained the result. Treat religious explanations as beliefs people held at the time. Historians record them as part of the story, and they weigh the causes they can test with evidence.
Differentiation Strategies
For Struggling Students
Give a Cause Tests strip with one picture per test: an eraser (remove), a ruler (reach), a chain (link) and a magnifying glass (evidence)
Read Sources 1-3 aloud in short chunks and pre-teach eight words: cause, outcome, relative influence, fleet, galleon, troopship, fire-ship and provisions
Let students rank only three causes with the frame: "___ was a major cause of ___ because ___ (Source _, paragraph _)."
For Advanced Students
Ask them to weigh a cause no source names directly, such as the distance between the Armada and Parma's army, and say what evidence they would need
Have them compare how Wood and Cuellar each explain the Spanish problems and say how each writer's position shapes his ranking
Challenge them to write a counterargument to their own ranking and answer it with evidence
Assessment Guidance
What to Look For
Strong work names the outcome first (the failed invasion or the losses on the way home), applies at least two Cause Tests by name, and supports each judgment with a quotation cited by source and paragraph. Watch for students who rank causes by how dramatic they sound, and for students who treat one writer's numbers as certain without checking another source.
02
Classroom Activities
3 Activities
1
Cause Card Sort
15 minPairs
Each pair gets 6 cause cards, 12 evidence cards and a mat with three columns: major cause, contributing cause and minor cause. A contributing cause helped but could not have produced the outcome alone. Pairs first match two evidence cards to each cause, then place each cause on the mat for one outcome: the Armada's failure to land an army in England.
The 6 Cause Cards
English ships, guns and gunners
The Spanish plan and the make-up of the fleet
Spanish leadership
The English fire-ships at Calais
Storms on the voyage home
Spoiled food and lost water
The 12 Evidence Cards
"In armament and seamen-gunners the English were perhaps five times as strong as the Armada" (Source 2, paragraph 1)
"received much injury from many heavy cannon balls, which the enemy lodged in her" (Source 3, paragraph 1)
"Philip mixed army and navy together" (Source 1, paragraph 1)
"the Armada was mostly composed of armed transports" (Source 2, paragraph 1)
"wholly unfitted to lead a fleet" (Source 1, paragraph 2)
"Señor Don Francisco Bovadilla alone was he who ordered and countermanded in the Armada" (Source 3, paragraph 2)
"nine English fire-ships suddenly burst into flame and made for the Spanish anchorage" (Source 2, paragraph 2)
"scattered in such manner by the storm that some ships went to Germany" (Source 3, paragraph 3)
"the cables could not hold nor the sails serve us" (Source 3, paragraph 5)
"The provisions placed on board at Lisbon had been found unfit for food" (Source 4, paragraph 2)
"the water-casks refilled there had been carelessly stowed" (Source 4, paragraph 2)
Matching Key and Discussion
Cards 1-2 go with cause 1, cards 3-4 with cause 2, cards 5-6 with cause 3, cards 7-8 with cause 4, cards 9-10 with cause 5 and cards 11-12 with cause 6. The mat has no single right answer. Accept any placement the pair defends with a Cause Test. Ask: "Which causes acted before the fleet left the Channel, and which acted only after?" (Diagram 1 helps.) "Which cards come from a Spanish writer, and does that change how much you trust them?"
2
Remove One Cause
15 minGroups of 3-4
Each group gets one cause card from Activity 1 and two outcome cards: "No army landed in England" and "Many ships and men were lost on the way home." Groups write a "What if?" sentence for each outcome ("If ___ had not happened, then ___ would probably ___"), back it with one quotation, and then add a sticky note for their cause to a class chart with two columns, one per outcome, ordered from most to least influence.
Steps
Read the cause card and find two pieces of evidence for it in Sources 1-4.
Apply the remove test to each outcome separately.
Write the two "What if?" sentences and choose a weight for each outcome: major, contributing or minor.
Place the sticky notes and give a 30-second report.
Discussion
Compare the two columns on the class chart. Did any cause move up or down between them? Ask each group whether its "What if?" sentence depends on something no source tells us, and how a historian would handle that uncertainty ("probably" and "likely" are honest words in a causal argument).
Variation
For a shorter version, give every group the same two causes and have them argue which one weighs more for one outcome only.
3
Fix the Sample Ranking
15 minIndividual, then pairs
Students read Source 6, a sample paragraph SVHS wrote with three weak spots on purpose. They mark each weak spot, name what is wrong with it, and then rewrite the paragraph as a stronger ranking of three causes for one named outcome.
Checklist for Students
Does the writer name the outcome being explained?
Does each piece of evidence fit the outcome it is used for?
Is every claim backed by a cited source?
Is each cause weighed with a fair test?
Teacher Key
(1) Sentences 1-3 claim the storms explain why the Armada failed to invade, but Cuellar's words describe ships lost in Ireland after the fighting, so the evidence fits the losses on the voyage home, not the failed invasion. (2) Sentence 6 makes a claim with no evidence or citation; a strong version would quote Source 1, paragraph 2, or Source 3, paragraph 2, and name a specific choice. (3) Sentence 7 weighs the fire-ships only by whether they sank ships. Source 2, paragraph 2, shows they forced the fleet to cut its cables, caused collisions and broke its order, which is a link to later events.
03
Diagrams & Visual Aids
2 diagrams
Diagram 1: A Timeline of the Armada Campaign, July-September 1588
An SVHS teaching diagram, drawn to scale in days. The Lizard is a point of land on the southwest coast of England (Wood says it was sixty miles from Plymouth). The dates are the ones Wood (chapter IX) and Froude (lecture IX) give; Froude says only that the ships reached Spain in the second week of September, so that point is placed near the middle of that week. Use it to decide when each cause acted: in the Channel fighting, or on the voyage home.
Diagram 2: Seamen and Soldiers in the Two Fleets
An SVHS teaching diagram made from the numbers in Source 2, paragraph 1. All the figures come from one historian (Wood, 1918), so treat them as his estimates. The English split into seamen and soldiers is computed from his "three-quarters seamen and one-quarter soldiers."
04
Homework Assignment
~30 min
D2.His.15.6-8 Homework: Weighing the Causes of the Armada's Defeat
Directions: Use Source 5 (the end of Wood's chapter, printed in the Closure phase) for Problems 1-3, and Sources 1-5 for Problems 4-6. Name the outcome you are explaining in every answer, and cite the source and paragraph for every piece of evidence.
Part 1: The End of the Campaign (Problems 1-3)
Source 5, paragraph 1: according to Wood, what had the Armada lost by the end of the Battle of Gravelines, and over how many days? Which of the two outcomes does this help explain?
Source 5, paragraph 1, says the Spaniards "fought with desperate courage, still suffering ghastly losses." Does this detail make the cause "Spanish leadership" weigh more or less in your judgment? Explain, and say which other cause the "ghastly losses" point to.
Wood ends by saying the survivors reached Spain "like the mere wreckage of a storm" (Source 5, paragraph 2). Does Wood think the storms were the main cause of the Armada's failure to invade England? Use both paragraphs of Source 5 to explain.
Part 2: Weighing the Causes (Problems 4-6)
Choose the cause you think weighs most for the Armada's failure to land an army in England. Apply all four Cause Tests to it, with evidence from at least two different sources.
Wood says the English seamen "utterly surpassed them in seamanship" (Source 2, paragraph 1). Find one detail in Source 3, by a Spanish captain, that fits or does not fit Wood's claim. Does it make you more or less confident in Wood's judgment? Explain.
Write a paragraph of 6-8 sentences that ranks three causes of the losses on the voyage home, from most to least influential. Name the outcome in your first sentence, cite at least three sources, and use at least two Cause Tests by name.
Rubric
Criterion
Full Credit (2 pts)
Partial Credit (1 pt)
No Credit (0 pts)
Outcome
Names the outcome being explained and keeps the two outcomes apart
Names an outcome but mixes the two in places
No outcome named
Cause Tests
Applies the named tests correctly and explains the result
Names a test but applies it loosely
No test used
Evidence
Quotes or closely paraphrases sources, cited by source and paragraph, that fit the claim
Evidence is present but uncited, or fits the claim only loosely
No evidence
Weighing
Explains why one cause matters more than another, and notes any uncertainty
Ranks causes with little explanation
Lists causes without ranking them
05
Quiz: 20 Questions
Interactive, with answers
Instructions
Questions 1, 2 and 20 test the Cause Tests themselves (Question 20 uses an invented example). Questions 3-4 use Source 1, Questions 5-6 and 12-13 use Source 2, and Questions 7-9 and 16 use Source 3 (all in the Direct Instruction phase). Questions 10-11 and 18 use Source 4 (Guided Practice). Questions 14, 15, 17 and 19 use more than one source. Choose the best answer for each multiple-choice question; write three to six sentences for each short answer.
Multiple choice: pick an option to check it. Short answer: write your answer, then reveal the model answer.
0 of 20 answered · 0 correct
Question 1 of 20 · Multiple Choice
A student writes: "The storms, the English guns and the fire-ships were all causes of the Armada's defeat." What must she add before she has evaluated the relative influence of these causes?
Answer: B
Listing causes is only the first step; evaluating relative influence means judging which mattered more and which less, and backing that judgment with evidence. Dates (A) help place causes in time but do not weigh them. A longer list (C) or more description (D) still does not compare the causes.
Question 2 of 20 · Multiple Choice
A student asks: "If the Spanish ships had carried more heavy guns, would they still have lost the fighting in the Channel?" Which Cause Test is the student using?
Answer: C
The student imagines one cause (the light Spanish guns) changed or missing and asks whether the result would still have happened. That is the remove test. The reach test (A) asks how much of the outcome a cause explains; the link test (B) asks whether a cause fed other causes; the evidence test (D) asks which sources support the cause.
Question 3 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Source 1, paragraph 1, says Santa Cruz "begged for more and better guns," but Philip could only buy "Sixty second-rate pieces" from foreign ships in Lisbon. Which cause does this evidence support most directly?
Answer: C
The sentence is about how Spain armed its ships before sailing, so it supports the cause of Spanish preparation. A and D are events of the campaign itself that the sentence does not mention, and B is a different supply problem (food and water, Source 4).
Question 4 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Source 1, paragraph 2, says "sickness and desertion had been thinning their ranks" of Spanish sailors. Using the link test, which other cause did this make stronger?
Answer: A
Fewer and weaker Spanish crews widened the gap in seamanship, which Source 2, paragraph 1, describes. B is Spain's army, which the sentence does not touch. C is a weather event before the battle, unrelated to Spanish sickness. D is about belief, not a cause the sentence links to.
Question 5 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Source 2, paragraph 1, says Spanish reports "exaggerated the size" of their ships because "their three tons equal to an English four." What should a historian do with this?
Answer: D
The sentence warns that the two sides measured tonnage differently, so size figures must be compared with care (the evidence test). A goes too far: the reports still contain facts. B reads the sentence backward, since the ships looked bigger than they were. C jumps from one detail to a ranking with no test.
Question 6 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Source 2, paragraph 2, says "There were no boats ready to grapple the fire-ships and tow them clear." This detail links the fire-ship attack to which other cause?
Answer: D
The same paragraph says Sidonia was "enraged that the boats were not out on patrol," so the fire-ships did more damage because the Spanish fleet was not ready: a link to leadership and readiness. A and B act at other times, and C is not what this sentence is about.
Question 7 of 20 · Multiple Choice
In Source 3, paragraph 3, Cuellar writes: "We had neither remedy nor succour, except it was from God; for the Duke still did not appear." Besides the storm, which cause does he point to?
Answer: A
"The Duke still did not appear" blames the commander for leaving the ships without help. The English guns (B) appear in paragraph 1, not here. C comes from Source 4, and D is not in this paragraph.
Question 8 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Why is Source 3 strong evidence about the storm that wrecked Cuellar's group of ships?
Answer: B
Cuellar was an eyewitness who escaped the wreck, which makes him a strong source on what happened on that beach. A is false: he wrote in 1589. C is false: he was a Spanish captain. D is false too: he had been sentenced to death and had reasons to defend himself, which matters for other parts of the letter.
Question 9 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Cuellar had been condemned to death during the campaign and then spared. Which part of Source 3 should a historian check most carefully against other sources?
Answer: C
A man condemned by the Armada's leaders had a strong reason to blame them, so his judgment of Bovadilla and "others, whose evil deeds are well known" (paragraph 2) needs checking. The other details (A, B, D) describe things he saw, and he had less reason to change them.
Question 10 of 20 · Multiple Choice
In Source 4, paragraph 1, Froude writes that "other causes besides the action of man should have combined in its overthrow." What does he mean?
Answer: C
"Besides the action of man" means in addition to what people did, so Froude includes causes like the sea and weather. A says the opposite. B blames only the Spanish. D goes beyond what Froude says; he names causes in the next paragraph.
Question 11 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Source 4, paragraph 4, says that to the English "the defeat and destruction of the Spanish fleet was a declaration of the Almighty." What does this sentence mainly tell a historian?
Answer: A
The sentence reports a belief held by English people at the time about why they won. Historians record such beliefs as part of the story. It gives no numbers (B), no tactics (C) and nothing about Philip's view (D).
Question 12 of 20 · Multiple Choice
According to Source 2, paragraph 2, the Armada was anchored at Calais before "joining Parma in the Netherlands" when the fire-ships came. Which outcome does the fire-ship attack help explain most directly?
Answer: B
The fleet was waiting to join Parma, and the fire-ships drove it into "disorderly flight," so the attack bears directly on the failure to join the army. The Irish wrecks (A) came weeks later, the food (C) had other causes, and D happened before the fleet sailed.
Question 13 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Wood writes that "In armament and seamen-gunners the English were perhaps five times as strong as the Armada" (Source 2, paragraph 1). Which word tells the reader to treat "five times" as an estimate?
Answer: D
"Perhaps" shows that Wood is estimating, not reporting a measured figure, so the evidence test asks for a second source. The other words name what is being compared, not how certain Wood is.
Question 14 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Which pair of sources gives the strongest support, from writers on different sides, for the cause "English ships, guns and gunners"?
Answer: B
Wood (an English-language historian who admires the English) and Cuellar (a Spanish captain whose galleon took "many heavy cannon balls") come from different sides and agree, which is strong support. A is one writer twice. C is about beliefs, not guns. D is an invented sample, not evidence.
Question 15 of 20 · Short Answer
Use the remove test on Spanish leadership. Suppose Santa Cruz had lived to command the Armada instead of Medina Sidonia. Would the Armada probably still have failed to land an army in England? Give one piece of evidence that supports your answer and one that cuts against it (Sources 1-3).
Model answer: Probably yes, it would still have failed, though perhaps with smaller losses. For a large influence of leadership: Wood says Medina Sidonia was "wholly unfitted to lead a fleet" (Source 1, paragraph 2), and Cuellar says the Duke "still did not appear" when ships needed help (Source 3, paragraph 3). Against it: even with Santa Cruz the fleet would have had "far too many soldiers and not nearly enough sailors" and only "light ordnance" (Source 1, paragraph 1), and the English were "perhaps five times as strong" in guns and gunners (Source 2, paragraph 1). So leadership was a contributing cause, not the whole story. Rubric: full credit for a clear yes or no with a reason, one piece of evidence on each side, and citations; partial for one side only.
Question 16 of 20 · Short Answer
In Source 3, paragraphs 4-5, Cuellar's group of ships anchored off the coast and "remained for four days without being able to make any provision." On which day after anchoring were the ships wrecked? Explain how two causes worked together in this wreck.
Model answer: On the fifth day: the ships waited at anchor for four days, and the storm struck on the next one. Two causes combined: the storm ("the cables could not hold nor the sails serve us") and the ships' weak position, since they could not round the cape, could not get supplies and had to anchor near a dangerous shore. Without the storm they might have survived at anchor; without the forced stop near the coast, the storm might have caught them in open sea instead of driving them onto a beach. Rubric: full credit for the five days and a clear explanation of how the two causes combined, with a quotation; partial for the number or the explanation only.
Question 17 of 20 · Short Answer
Source 1 and Source 2 were written by Wood in 1918; Source 3 was written by Cuellar in 1589. For each writer, name one thing his source is good evidence for and one limit of his source when you weigh the causes of the defeat.
Model answer: Wood is good evidence for the big picture: he compares the two fleets as a whole and gives numbers for crews and guns (Source 2, paragraph 1). A limit: he wrote 330 years later, admired the English and does not say where his figures come from. Cuellar is good evidence for what happened on his own ships, such as the shot-holes and the wreck (Source 3, paragraphs 1 and 6). A limit: he saw only a small part of the campaign and had reasons to blame the leaders who condemned him. Rubric: full credit for one strength and one limit for each writer, each tied to the source; partial for one writer only.
Question 18 of 20 · Short Answer
Froude reports that "Both sides had appealed to Heaven, and Heaven had spoken" (Source 4, paragraph 4). Explain why a historian records what people believed about the causes of the defeat, and how this differs from the causes the historian can test with evidence.
Model answer: What people believed about the defeat is part of the history, because it shows how they understood the event and how it shaped them; Froude notes that both sides had prayed for help. A historian records these beliefs without judging whether they are true. The causes a historian weighs with the Cause Tests are ones that sources can show, such as the guns, the plan, the fire-ships, the storms and the supplies, because evidence can show what each one did. Rubric: full credit for explaining both points without judging any belief as true or false; partial for one point only.
Question 19 of 20 · Short Answer
Rank three causes of the Armada's failure to land an army in England, from most to least influential. For your top cause, apply two Cause Tests and cite evidence from two different sources.
Model answer (one defensible ranking): (1) English ships, guns and gunners; (2) the Spanish plan and the make-up of the fleet; (3) the fire-ships at Calais. Remove test: without the English advantage, the Armada's soldiers could have boarded and the fleet could have reached Parma; Wood says the English had "far handier vessels to work" (Source 2, paragraph 1). Evidence test: Froude reports that the Spaniards themselves set the defeat "frankly down to the superior fighting powers of the English" (Source 4, paragraph 3), so, as Froude reports it, the losing side agreed with Wood's judgment. Other rankings earn full credit if they are defended this way. Rubric: full credit for a ranked list of three, two named tests applied to the top cause, and two cited sources; partial for a ranking with one test or one source.
Question 20 of 20 · Short Answer
Invented example: an old wooden bridge in a river town collapsed during a spring flood. Three causes are suggested: (1) three days of heavy rain, (2) the town had not repaired the bridge in forty years, though it had come through several earlier floods, and (3) a pile of logs jammed against the bridge on the morning it fell. Use two Cause Tests to rank the three causes, and say what evidence you would want before trusting your ranking.
Model answer (one defensible ranking): (1) The missing repairs, (2) the rain, (3) the log jam. Remove test: the bridge had come through earlier floods, so without the forty years of neglect it would probably have stood this time too; without the log jam it might still have fallen later in the flood. Link test: the rain caused the flood that carried the logs, so the rain fed the log-jam cause. I would want an engineer's report on the bridge's condition and records of earlier floods before trusting the ranking. Rubric: full credit for a ranking of all three, two named tests used correctly, and one piece of evidence the student would seek; partial for a ranking with one test. Other rankings earn full credit if they are defended this way.
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06
Frequently Asked Questions
10 Questions
What does D2.His.15.6-8 mean?
D2.His.15.6-8 asks middle school students to evaluate the relative influence of various causes of events and developments in the past. In plain words, students decide which causes mattered most and which mattered less, and they back each judgment with evidence. It is a history indicator in Dimension 2 of the C3 Framework, in the group on causation and argumentation.
What is the difference between D2.His.14.6-8 and D2.His.15.6-8?
D2.His.14.6-8 asks students to explain multiple causes and effects; D2.His.15.6-8 asks them to weigh those causes against each other. A student meeting D2.His.14 can list the causes of an event. A student meeting D2.His.15 can say which ones carried more weight, and why.
What does "relative influence" mean in history?
Relative influence means how much one cause mattered compared with the other causes of the same outcome. A cause can be major, contributing (it helped but could not have produced the outcome alone) or minor. The judgment is always relative to the other causes and to the outcome being explained.
How can students decide which cause mattered most?
Students can use four questions, the Cause Tests in this lesson. The remove test imagines the cause missing; the reach test asks how much of the outcome the cause explains; the link test asks whether it fed other causes; and the evidence test asks which sources, and from which sides, support it. No single test settles the question, so strong answers use at least two.
Why does this lesson use the Spanish Armada?
The Armada campaign of 1588 has several clear causes that can be tested with short sources: the ships and guns, the Spanish plan, leadership, the fire-ships at Calais, storms and supplies. It also has sources from both sides, an English-language historian and a Spanish captain, so students can practice the evidence test. Any well-documented event with several causes works with the same tests.
Is it fair to name one cause as "the main cause"?
Yes, if the student explains the judgment and names the outcome. Historians often argue for a main cause, but they show why it outweighs the others and admit what remains uncertain. A ranking without reasons, or one that treats a single cause as the whole explanation, is weaker.
How is D2.His.15.6-8 usually assessed?
D2.His.15.6-8 is usually assessed with source-based tasks rather than recall. Students might rank causes and defend the ranking in a paragraph, apply a test to a cause, or judge whether a piece of evidence supports a claim about a cause. The quiz in this lesson mixes multiple-choice items on evidence with short written rankings.
What mistakes do students make when ranking causes?
A frequent mistake is ranking causes by how dramatic they sound rather than by what the evidence shows. Others are mixing up two different outcomes, using evidence that fits a different outcome from the one being explained, and trusting one writer's numbers without checking another source. Asking students to name the outcome first prevents many of these.
Why mix primary and secondary sources in a causation lesson?
A primary source, such as a letter by someone who was there, shows what happened up close. A secondary source, written later by a historian, can compare the whole picture. Weighing causes needs both: the close view to test a cause, and the wide view to see how much of the outcome it explains.
How does D2.His.15.6-8 prepare students for high school history?
It builds the habit of weighing causes with evidence. In grades 9-12, D2.His.15.9-12 asks students to distinguish between long-term causes and triggering events in a historical argument, and D2.His.16.9-12 asks them to integrate several sources and interpretations into a reasoned argument. Both depend on the weighing skills practiced here.
07
Related Standards
5 standards
These standards connect to D2.His.15.6-8: prerequisites to review first, parallel standards at the same level, and next steps that build on it.
Before this lesson
D2.His.14.6-8Prerequisite
Explain multiple causes and effects of events and developments in the past
Standard text: National Council for the Social Studies (NCSS), The College, Career, and Civic Life (C3) Framework for Social Studies State Standards: Guidance for Enhancing the Rigor of K-12 Civics, Economics, Geography, and History (Silver Spring, MD: NCSS, 2013). NCSS was not involved in the production of this lesson and does not endorse it.