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RST.6-8.8Common CoreELALiteracy in Science and Technical SubjectsGrades 6-8

RST.6-8.8: Facts, Reasoned Judgment and Speculation in Science Texts

In plain English: RST.6-8.8 is the Common Core grades 6-8 literacy standard that asks students to distinguish among facts, reasoned judgment based on research findings, and speculation in a science or technical text. Students decide whether a statement reports something observed or measured, draws a conclusion from research, or goes beyond the evidence. It is usually taught in middle school science.

Distinguish among facts, reasoned judgment based on research findings, and speculation in a text.

Common Core State Standards for English Language Arts & Literacy · Domain: Reading Standards for Literacy in Science and Technical Subjects 6-12 · Cluster: Integration of Knowledge and Ideas · Official standard

01

Lesson Plan

55-65 min

Overview

Students learn to tell apart three kinds of statements in science writing: facts (what was observed or measured, which others can check), reasoned judgments based on research findings (conclusions drawn from what was found, with the reasoning shown) and speculation (statements that go beyond the evidence). The texts come from a famous argument. In 1906 the American astronomer Percival Lowell published Mars and Its Canals, arguing that the straight lines he saw on Mars were canals built by intelligent beings. In 1907 the British naturalist Alfred Russel Wallace answered with Is Mars Habitable?, using measurements of temperature, air and light to argue that Mars could not support animal life.

The teacher models with Lowell's measurements of the Martian day and seasons (Passage 1) and his conclusion that Mars is inhabited (Passage 2). Pairs sort Wallace's account of the search for water vapour with the spectroscope (Passage 3). Students work alone on Wallace's argument about the climate of Mars (Passage 4) and on a modern article written for this page that reports what spacecraft and rovers have found (Passage 5). The homework uses Wallace's summary of his case (Passage 6). Diagram 1 gives the two questions students ask about every statement.

Learning Objectives

By the end of this lesson, students will be able to:

  • Identify statements of fact in a science text and explain how each could be checked
  • Identify reasoned judgments based on research findings, and name the findings and the reasoning behind each
  • Identify speculation, including speculation stated with confident words such as "certain"
  • Explain how new research findings can confirm a reasoned judgment, overturn it, or settle a speculation

Prior Knowledge Required

Students should already be comfortable with:

  • Explaining how an author uses reasons and evidence to support points in a text RI.5.8
  • Citing specific textual evidence from science texts RST.6-8.1
  • Reading temperatures below zero, and knowing that water freezes at 32 °F 6.NS.C.5
  • Knowing that Mars is the fourth planet from the sun, farther from it than Earth

Lesson Procedure

55-65 minutes of class time across 5 phases.

  1. Warm-Up5-10 minutes

    Project the three sentences from an invented school library report. Give pairs two minutes.

    Warm-Up Prompt

    Sentence A: "Students checked out 312 books in September." Sentence B: "September checkouts were twice those of August, so the new display by the door is probably drawing readers in." Sentence C: "Someday the library may not need paper books at all." Which sentence could you check in the records? Which is a conclusion drawn from the records? Which goes beyond anything the records show?

    Take answers. A is a fact: anyone can check it in the checkout records. B is a reasoned judgment: it draws a conclusion from findings (the two months' counts) and shows its reasoning ("so"). C is speculation: nothing in the records can show it. Tell students that RST.6-8.8 asks them to distinguish these three kinds of statements in science and technical texts, where they often sit side by side in the same paragraph.

  2. Direct Instruction15 minutes

    Part 1: Three kinds of statements. Keep this table and Diagram 1 up for the whole lesson.

    Facts, reasoned judgments and speculation
    Kind of statementWhat it isA question to ask
    FactA statement of something observed or measured, which other people could checkHow could someone check this?
    Research findingA result that a scientist observed or measured in an investigation; a finding is a kind of factWho found it, and how?
    Reasoned judgment based on research findingsA conclusion drawn from research findings, with the reasoning shownWhat findings is it based on, and does the reasoning follow?
    SpeculationA statement that goes beyond the evidence: a guess, a possibility or a predictionCould any evidence the author has actually show this?
    HypothesisA possible explanation that can be tested; before it is tested, it is a kind of speculationWhat test could settle it?

    Part 2: Model with Passages 1 and 2. Percival Lowell (1855-1916) built an observatory in Flagstaff, Arizona, to study Mars. In Passage 1 he reports what careful telescope work had measured. In Passage 2, the opening of his last chapter, he states his conclusion about the canals. Words to know for Passage 1: areographic features (markings on Mars; "areo-" means Mars), traverse of the disk (trip across the planet's round face in a telescope), nicety (exactness), axis (the line a planet spins around), tilt of the equator to the plane of the orbit (how far the planet leans), similitude and parallelism (likeness), Nautical Almanac (a yearly book of sky data), terrestrial (Earth's), ellipticity (how stretched the oval of the orbit is). For Passage 2: beings (living creatures), atomic theory (the idea that matter is made of atoms), predicate (state), cosmopolitan (worldwide), girdling (circling), entity (a single thing), posits (assumes), community of interest (shared goals), enterprises (projects).

    Attention shows these areographic features to be on hand with punctual precision for their traverse of the disk once every twenty-four hours and thirty-seven minutes. For over two hundred years this has been the case, their untiring revolutions having been watched so well that we know the time they take to the nicety of a couple of hundredths of a second. We thus become possessed of a knowledge of the length of the Martian day and it is not a little interesting to find that it very closely counterparts in duration our own, being only one thirty-fifth the longer of the two. We also find from the course the markings pursue the axis about which they turn; and just as the period of the rotation tells us the length of the Martian day so the tilt of the axis, taken in connection with the form of the orbit, determines the character of the Martian seasons. Here again we confront a curious resemblance in the circumstances of the two planets, for the tilt of the equator to the plane of the orbit is with Mars almost precisely what it is for the Earth. The more carefully the two are measured the closer the similitude becomes. Sir William Herschel made the Martian 28°, Schiaparelli reduced this to 25°, and later determination by the writer puts it nearer 24°. The latter is the one now adopted in the British Nautical Almanac for observers of the planet. This is a very close parallelism indeed; so that in general character the Martian seasons are nearly the counterpart of ours. In length, however, they differ; first because the year of Mars is almost double the length of the terrestrial one and secondly because from the greater ellipticity of Mars’ orbit the seasons are more unequal than is the case with us, some being run through with great haste, others being lingered on a disproportionate time. [...] On this division our seasons in the northern hemisphere last respectively: spring, 91 days; summer, 92 days; autumn, 92 days; and winter, 90 days. On Mars these become, reckoned in our days: spring, 199 days; summer 183 days; autumn, 147 days; and winter, 158 days. If we had counted them in Martian days they would have totaled about one thirty-fifth less in number each.

    Percival Lowell, Mars and Its Canals, chapter IV, "The Polar Caps" (Passage 1: the Martian day and seasons; one cut marked [...]) (1906). Public domain (published 1906). Source text.

    That Mars is inhabited by beings of some sort or other we may consider as certain as it is uncertain what those beings may be. The theory of the existence of intelligent life on Mars may be likened to the atomic theory in chemistry in that in both we are led to the belief in units which we are alike unable to define. Both theories explain the facts in their respective fields and are the only theories that do, while as to what an atom may resemble we know as little as what a Martian may be like. But the behavior of chemic compounds points to the existence of atoms too small for us to see, and in the same way the aspect and behavior of the Martian markings implies the action of agents too far away to be made out.

    But though in neither case can we tell anything of the Bodily form of its unit, we can in both predicate a good deal about their workings. Apart from the general fact of intelligence implied by the geometric character of their constructions, is the evidence as to its degree afforded by the cosmopolitan extent of the action. Girdling their globe and stretching from pole, to pole, the Martian canal system not only embraces their whole world, but is an organized entity. Each canal joins another, which in turn connects with a third, and so on over the entire surface of the planet. This continuity of construction posits a community of interest. Now, when we consider that though not so large as the Earth the world of Mars is one of 4200 miles diameter and therefore containing something like 212,000,000 of square miles, the unity of the process acquires considerable significance. The supposed vast enterprises of the earth look small beside it. None of them but become local in comparison, gigantic as they seem to us to be.

    Percival Lowell, Mars and Its Canals, chapter XXXII, "Conclusion" (Passage 2: Lowell's conclusion) (1906). Public domain (published 1906). Source text.
    • A fact, and how to check it

      Passage 1. Lowell reports that the markings cross the disk "once every twenty-four hours and thirty-seven minutes." What kind of statement is this, and how could it be checked?

      Result: A fact. It reports a measurement that other observers can repeat, and Lowell says it has been "watched so well" for "over two hundred years" that it is known "to the nicety of a couple of hundredths of a second." Modern measurements give 24 hours 37 minutes 22.7 seconds. Even his "one thirty-fifth the longer" can be checked: compared with the 23 hours 56 minutes that Earth takes to spin once, Mars takes 41 minutes more, and 41 ÷ 1,436 minutes is about 1/35.

    • A reasoned judgment based on research findings

      Passage 1. Lowell writes that "in general character the Martian seasons are nearly the counterpart of ours." What is this statement based on, and what kind is it?

      Result: A reasoned judgment. The finding is the measured tilt: "later determination by the writer puts it nearer 24°," close to Earth's tilt of about 23.5°. The reasoning is given: the tilt "determines the character of the Martian seasons," so a similar tilt means similar kinds of seasons. Lowell himself limits the judgment: "In length, however, they differ," and Diagram 2 shows by how much.

    • A statement of fact can fail its check

      Passage 2, paragraph 2. Lowell writes that Mars is "one of 4200 miles diameter and therefore containing something like 212,000,000 of square miles." Are these facts, and are they right?

      Result: Both are statements of fact, because both can be checked. The diameter is close to the modern value of about 4,212 miles. The area is not: the surface of a ball 4,200 miles across is π × 4,200² square miles, about 55,400,000, and modern measurements give about 55,900,000. Lowell's figure is almost four times too large. A statement is a fact-type statement because it can be checked, not because it is true.

    • Speculation stated as certainty

      Passage 2, paragraph 1: "That Mars is inhabited by beings of some sort or other we may consider as certain as it is uncertain what those beings may be." Fact, reasoned judgment or speculation?

      Result: Speculation, even though Lowell calls it "certain." No one had seen any beings; Lowell admits "we know as little as what a Martian may be like." His support is a comparison with atoms and the "geometric character" of lines that he takes to be "constructions." A conclusion about things no evidence could show goes beyond the evidence. Diagram 1's note applies: confident words do not decide the category.

  3. Guided Practice15 minutes

    Pairs read Passage 3, from Wallace's reply. Wallace (1823-1913) was a British naturalist who worked out the theory of evolution by natural selection at the same time as Charles Darwin. Here he reports what astronomers found when they looked for water vapour on Mars with a spectroscope (an instrument that spreads light into its colors; a gas such as water vapour leaves dark lines in the colors). Words to know: Sir William Huggins (a British astronomer), aqueous vapour (water vapor), ascertained (found out), negative (finding nothing), Lick Observatory (in California), Marchand, Slipher (astronomers), Pic du Midi (a mountain observatory in France), accordant (in agreement), molecular theory of gases (the science of how gas particles move; Wallace means a calculation that a small planet's gravity cannot hold on to water vapor), presumably (probably), delicacy (difficulty, needing great care), conjecture (guess), omnipresent (everywhere). Pairs mark each sentence F, RJ or S, using three highlighter colors.

    As Sir William Huggins is the chief authority quoted for this fact, and is referred to as being almost conclusive in the third edition of Miss Clerke's History of Astronomy in 1893, I have ascertained that his opinion at the present time is that "there is no conclusive proof of the presence of aqueous vapour in the atmosphere of Mars, and that observations at the Lick Observatory (in 1895), where the conditions and instruments are of the highest order, were negative." He also informs me that Marchand at the Pic du Midi Observatory was unable to obtain lines of aqueous vapour in the spectrum of Mars; and that in 1905, Slipher, at Mr. Lowell's observatory, was unable to detect any indications of aqueous vapour in the spectrum of Mars.

    It thus appears that spectroscopic observations are quite accordant with the calculations founded on the molecular theory of gases as to the absence of aqueous vapour, and therefore presumably of liquid water, from Mars. It is true that the spectroscopic argument is purely negative, and this may be due to the extreme delicacy of the observations required; but that dependent on the inability of the force of gravity to retain it is positive scientific evidence against its presence, and, till shown to be erroneous, must be held to be conclusive.

    This absence of water is of itself conclusive against the existence of animal life, unless we enter the regions of pure conjecture as to the possibility of some other liquid being able to take its place, and that liquid being as omnipresent there as water is here. [...]

    Alfred Russel Wallace, Is Mars Habitable?, chapter IV, "Is Animal Life Possible on Mars?" (Passage 3: the spectroscope; the end of the last paragraph cut, marked [...]) (1907). Public domain (published 1907). Source text.
    • An author who sorts his own evidence

      Passage 3. Pairs find the research findings, the reasoned judgment Wallace draws from them, and the statement he himself calls speculation.

      Result: Findings (facts): observations at the Lick Observatory in 1895 "were negative," Marchand "was unable to obtain lines of aqueous vapour," and Slipher in 1905 "was unable to detect any indications" of it. Reasoned judgment: these agree with the gravity calculation "as to the absence of aqueous vapour, and therefore presumably of liquid water, from Mars." Wallace also weighs the evidence: the spectroscope result is "purely negative" (the lines may simply be too faint to see), while the gravity calculation is "positive scientific evidence." Speculation: another liquid taking water's place, which he calls "the regions of pure conjecture."

    Debrief: Wallace says the gravity argument "must be held to be conclusive" only "till shown to be erroneous." What does that phrase tell you about reasoned judgments? (They are the best conclusion from the findings so far, and new findings can change them. Passage 6 and the homework come back to this.) Then start Activities 1-3.

  4. Independent Practice15-20 minutes

    Students read Passages 4 and 5 on their own and answer quiz questions 1-20. Passage 4 is Wallace's argument about the temperature of Mars. Words to know: atmospheric envelope (the layer of air around a planet), density (how much air is packed into a space), altitude (height above sea level), grappled with (dealt with), plateaux (high, flat lands), Quito (the capital of Ecuador, high in the Andes Mountains, near the equator), Manaos (Manaus, a city in Brazil near sea level on the Amazon River), Humboldt (Alexander von Humboldt, a German scientist who measured temperatures on mountains), [17] (Wallace's footnote, printed as the next paragraph), barometer (an instrument that measures air pressure; "a four inches barometer" means air pushing a column of mercury only 4 inches high, where at sea level on Earth it is about 30 inches), enquirers (researchers), to-31° F. (to -31 °F; the missing space is in the original). Passage 5 is a modern article written for this page. Words to know: orbiter (a spacecraft that circles a planet), rover (a robot vehicle that drives on a planet), crater (a bowl-shaped hole made by a space rock), delta (land built up where a river flows into a lake or sea), microbes (living things too small to see without a microscope).

    Recurring now to the question of climate, which is all-important, Mr. Lowell never even discusses the essential point--the temperature that must necessarily result from an atmospheric envelope one-twelfth (or at most one-seventh) the density of our own; in either case corresponding to an altitude far greater than that of our highest mountains.[17] Surely this phenomenon, everywhere manifested on the earth even under the equator, of a regular decrease of temperature with altitude, the only cause of which is a less dense atmosphere, should have been fairly grappled with, and some attempt made to show why it should not apply to Mars, except the weak remark that on a level surface it will not have the same effect as on exposed mountain heights. But it does have the same effect, or very nearly so, on our lofty plateaux often hundreds of miles in extent, in proportion to their altitude. Quito, at 9350 ft. above the sea, has a mean temperature of about 57° F., giving a lowering of 23° from that of Manaos at the mouth of the Rio Negro. This is about a degree for each 400 feet, while the general fall for isolated mountains is about one degree in 340 feet according to Humboldt, who notes the above difference between the rate of cooling for altitude of the plains--or more usually sheltered valleys in which the towns are situated--and the exposed mountain sides. It will be seen that this lower rate would bring the temperature of Mars at the equator down to 20° F. below the freezing point of water from this cause alone.

    [Footnote 17: A four inches barometer is equivalent to a height of 40,000 feet above sea-level with us.]

    But all enquirers have admitted, that if conditions as to atmosphere were the same as on the earth, its greater distance from the sun would reduce the temperature to-31° F., equal to 63° below the freezing point. It is therefore certain that the combined effect of both causes must bring the temperature of Mars down to at least 70° or 80°below the freezing point.

    Alfred Russel Wallace, Is Mars Habitable?, chapter VIII, "Summary and Conclusion" (Passage 4: the climate of Mars) (1907). Public domain (published 1907). Source text.

    Since 1965, spacecraft have photographed Mars up close. Mariner 4 flew past the planet that year, and Mariner 9 began mapping it from orbit in 1971. Their pictures showed craters, huge volcanoes and deep canyons, but none of the long, straight canals that Percival Lowell had drawn. Scientists today explain the canals as an illusion: when an observer strains to see details at the limit of a telescope, the eye tends to join faint, scattered spots into lines.

    Rovers and orbiters have measured the planet directly. The air pressure at the surface is less than 1 percent of the air pressure on Earth, and the air is about 95 percent carbon dioxide. The average temperature is about -80 °F (about -62 °C). Liquid water cannot last long on the surface today: in air that thin, it quickly boils away or freezes. The air does hold a small amount of water vapor, and the polar caps contain a great deal of water ice.

    The rocks tell a different story about the past. In Gale Crater, the rover Curiosity found layers of fine mudstone, a rock that forms when mud settles slowly to the bottom of still water. From these layers, scientists have concluded that a lake filled the crater, on and off, for millions of years, more than 3 billion years ago. The rover Perseverance, which landed in Jezero Crater in 2021, is studying what was once a river delta, and it has collected rock samples.

    Could anything have lived in those lakes? No one knows. Some scientists think tiny microbes might once have lived there, and a few suggest that microbes could survive even today, deep underground, where it is warmer and water might stay liquid. No life has been found on Mars, and no experiment has yet shown that it ever existed. Samples brought back to Earth might one day help answer the question.

    Written for this page, Mars Today: What Spacecraft and Rovers Have Found (Passage 5, a modern science article). Original passage written for this page.
  5. Closure5 minutes

    Exit ticket: "Write one fact, one reasoned judgment and one speculation from today's passages. Beside each, write the question from Diagram 1 that told you which kind it is." Sort the tickets into "all three correct with reasons," "correct kinds but no reasons" and "confuses reasoned judgment with speculation."

    Teacher note on the science. Passage 5 gives the modern picture of Mars and should be read alongside the older texts. Some of Lowell's measurements hold up well: the length of the Martian day is 24 hours 37 minutes 22.7 seconds, and his season lengths match modern values within about a day. His tilt of "nearer 24°" is a little low (the modern value is about 25.2°, closer to Schiaparelli's 25°), and his 212,000,000 square miles is almost four times the true area of about 55,900,000. Wallace's conclusion that Mars is far too cold for animal life has held up, but parts of his reasoning have not, as students will see when they compare Passages 4 and 6 with Passage 5. The passages keep the words and spelling of the 1906 and 1907 editions ("vapour," "plateaux").

    Homework passage. Passage 6 is the end of Wallace's book, where he sums up his case. Words to know: alpine (of high mountains), afford (give), Dr. Johnstone Stoney (George Johnstone Stoney, an Irish physicist who calculated which gases a planet's gravity can hold), controvert (argue against), scantiness (small amount), Langley (Samuel Langley, an American scientist who measured the heat given off by the moon), incompatible (not able to exist together), organic life (living things), in the multiple ratio of their respective weights (each adding to the strength of the others), postulates (assumes), uninhabitable (not able to support life).

    [...] These two independent arguments--from alpine temperatures and from those of the moon--support and enforce each other, and afford a conclusive proof (as against anything advanced by Mr. Lowell) that the temperature of Mars must be far too low to support animal life.

    A third independent argument leading to the same result is Dr. Johnstone Stoney's proof that aqueous vapour cannot exist on Mars; and this fact Mr. Lowell does not attempt to controvert.

    To put the whole case in the fewest possible words:

    All physicists are agreed that, owing to the distance of Mars from the sun, it would have a mean temperature of about-35° F. [...] even if it had an atmosphere as dense as ours.

    (2) But the very low temperatures on the earth under the equator, at a height where the barometer stands at about three times as high as on Mars, proves, that from scantiness of atmosphere alone Mars cannot possibly have a temperature as high as the freezing point of water; and this proof is supported by Langley's determination of the low maximum temperature of the full moon.

    The combination of these two results must bring down the temperature of Mars to a degree wholly incompatible with the existence of animal life.

    (3) The quite independent proof that water-vapour cannot exist on Mars, and that therefore, the first essential of organic life--water--is non-existent.

    The conclusion from these three independent proofs, which enforce each other in the multiple ratio of their respective weights, is therefore irresistible--that animal life, especially in its higher forms, cannot exist on the planet.

    Mars, therefore, is not only uninhabited by intelligent beings such as Mr. Lowell postulates, but is absolutely UNINHABITABLE.

    Alfred Russel Wallace, Is Mars Habitable?, chapter VIII, "Summary and Conclusion" (Passage 6: Wallace's case in a few words; two cuts marked [...]) (1907). Public domain (published 1907). Source text.

Differentiation Strategies

For Struggling Students

  • Give students Diagram 1 as a bookmark and have them ask its two questions, out loud, for each sentence before writing F, RJ or S
  • Split long sentences at "and" or ";" first, since one sentence can hold a fact and a judgment
  • Read Passage 5 first: its modern English and short sentences make the three kinds easier to see before the older texts

For Advanced Students

  • Find a sentence in Passage 2 that mixes a fact and a speculation, and rewrite it as two sentences, one of each
  • Rank Wallace's three arguments in Passage 6 from strongest to weakest evidence, as it looked in 1907
  • Write a short paragraph about Mars, like Passage 5, that labels its own facts, reasoned judgments and speculation for the reader

Assessment Guidance

What to Look For

Strong answers name the kind of statement and give the reason: how the fact could be checked, which findings a judgment rests on, or why a statement goes beyond the evidence. Watch for students who call every statement in a modern or official-sounding text a fact, who treat confident words ("certain," "must") as proof, who call any statement they disagree with speculation, or who think a fact-type statement cannot be wrong.

02

Classroom Activities

3 Activities

1

Sort the Statements

15 minPairs

Pairs sort 9 statement cards from Passages 1-3 into three piles: fact, reasoned judgment and speculation. On the back of each card they write the Diagram 1 question that decided it.

The 9 Statement Cards

  1. "once every twenty-four hours and thirty-seven minutes" (Passage 1)
  2. "Sir William Herschel made the Martian 28°, Schiaparelli reduced this to 25°" (Passage 1)
  3. "the year of Mars is almost double the length of the terrestrial one" (Passage 1)
  4. "the aspect and behavior of the Martian markings implies the action of agents too far away to be made out" (Passage 2)
  5. "This continuity of construction posits a community of interest." (Passage 2)
  6. "observations at the Lick Observatory (in 1895) ... were negative" (Passage 3)
  7. "spectroscopic observations are quite accordant with the calculations ... as to the absence of aqueous vapour" (Passage 3)
  8. "that dependent on the inability of the force of gravity to retain it is positive scientific evidence against its presence" (Passage 3)
  9. "the possibility of some other liquid being able to take its place" (Passage 3)

Teacher Key

  • Fact: cards 1, 2, 3 and 6 (measurements and observations that others can check; card 2 reports two measurements that disagree, which is still a fact about what each person measured)
  • Reasoned judgment: cards 7 and 8 (conclusions Wallace draws from the observations and from Stoney's calculation, with his reasoning)
  • Speculation: cards 4, 5 and 9 (Lowell's "agents" and "community" that no one could see; a liquid that Wallace himself calls "pure conjecture")

Discussion Questions

  • Card 5 uses the word "construction." How does that one word turn a description of lines into a speculation?
  • Card 8 was later shown to be wrong in part. Does that change what kind of statement it was in 1907?
2

Signal Words, True and False

15 minGroups of 3

Groups hunt Passages 1-3 for words that signal each kind of statement, then test whether the signals can be trusted.

Roles and Procedure

  • Finder reads a passage aloud and stops at any word that shows how sure the author is; sorter lists it under fact, reasoned judgment or speculation; tester checks whether the statement really is that kind, using Diagram 1
  • Make a three-column chart and mark any signal word that points the wrong way with a star

Teacher Key

  • Signals of facts: "watched so well," "measured," "observations," "was unable to detect"
  • Signals of reasoned judgment: "therefore," "so that," "thus appears," "presumably"
  • Signals of speculation: "implies the action of agents," "posits," "possibility," "conjecture"
  • Starred: "certain" in Passage 2, paragraph 1, marks a speculation, and "fact" in the first sentence of Passage 3 is Wallace's word for a claim that the evidence did not support

Discussion Questions

  • Why might a scientist state a speculation with a word like "certain"?
  • Which is safer to rely on: signal words, or the two questions in Diagram 1? Why?
3

What Would It Take?

10-15 minIndividual, then pairs

Students choose one speculation from Passage 2 and write what evidence would be needed to turn it into a reasoned judgment or a fact. Pairs then compare plans.

Procedure

  • Copy the speculation and underline the part no evidence in 1906 could show
  • Write the observation or measurement that would test it, and who could make it
  • Write the reasoned judgment you could draw if the test came out one way, and the one you could draw if it came out the other way

Sample Answer

  • Speculation: "the aspect and behavior of the Martian markings implies the action of agents too far away to be made out"
  • Test: look at the markings from much closer, with sharper pictures, to see whether the lines are real, straight channels
  • If the lines are real channels: the judgment would be that something made long straight channels, and the next question would be what
  • If there are no lines: the judgment would be that the "canals" were not features of Mars at all, and the speculation would have nothing left to explain

Discussion Questions

  • Is it wrong for a scientist to speculate? When does speculation help science?
  • What is the difference between Lowell's speculation and a hypothesis that someone plans to test?

03

Diagrams & Visual Aids

2 diagrams

Diagram 1: Fact, Reasoned Judgment or Speculation? A Decision Flowchart

Fact, reasoned judgment or speculation? Two questions to ask A statement in a science text 1. Does it report something observed or measured, that other people could check? Yes FACT It can be checked, and a check can show it is wrong No 2. Is it a conclusion drawn from research findings, with the reasoning shown? Yes REASONED JUDGMENT A conclusion that follows from what was found No SPECULATION It goes beyond the evidence: a guess, a possibility or a prediction Words like "certain" or "must" do not decide the answer.
Ask the questions in order. A fact reports something observed or measured that others can check. A reasoned judgment is a conclusion drawn from research findings, with the reasoning given. Speculation goes beyond what the evidence can show. How sure an author sounds does not decide the category: ask what the statement rests on.

Diagram 2: Lowell's Season Lengths from Passage 1, Drawn to Scale

Lowell's season lengths, drawn to scale (northern hemisphere, in Earth days) Earth Mars 0 50 100 150 200 Length of the season (Earth days) Spring 91 199 Summer 92 183 Autumn 92 147 Winter 90 158 Totals: Earth 91 + 92 + 92 + 90 = 365 days; Mars 199 + 183 + 147 + 158 = 687 days
Each bar is one of Lowell's reported facts from Passage 1: a measured length that others can check. Modern values agree with his within about a day. The chart also shows why his judgment that the seasons are "nearly the counterpart of ours" is about their character, not their length: every Martian season is far longer.

04

Homework Assignment

~30 min

RST.6-8.8 Homework: Wallace's Case in a Few Words

Directions: Read Passage 6 at the end of the lesson plan (in Closure). Its paragraphs are numbered. You will also use Passages 4 and 5 (in Independent Practice). Answer in complete sentences, and quote the passage to support each answer.

Part 1: Sorting Wallace's Summary (Problems 1-3)

  1. In paragraph 4, Wallace writes that "All physicists are agreed" that Mars would have a mean temperature of about -35° F even with an atmosphere as dense as Earth's. Is this a fact, a reasoned judgment or speculation? Explain what kind of research could produce such a number, and why the agreement of physicists does not turn it into a measurement.
  2. In Passage 4, Wallace gives -31° F for the same case. How many degrees apart are the two figures? What does the difference tell you about the kind of statement they are?
  3. In point (2), paragraph 5, Wallace names two research findings. Quote both, and explain the reasoned judgment he draws from them.

Part 2: Testing the Conclusion (Problems 4-6)

  1. Point (3) says that "water-vapour cannot exist on Mars." Read paragraph 2 of Passage 5. Does the modern article support this part of Wallace's case or overturn it? What does your answer show about reasoned judgments?
  2. Wallace ends by calling Mars "absolutely UNINHABITABLE." Which part of this conclusion rests on reasoned judgment from research, and where does the word "absolutely" go beyond his evidence? Use paragraph 4 of Passage 5.
  3. Write a paragraph of 4-6 sentences evaluating Wallace's case. Include one fact he relies on, one reasoned judgment he makes and one statement that goes beyond his evidence, with a quotation and a passage number for each.

Rubric

CriterionFull Credit (2 pts)Partial Credit (1 pt)No Credit (0 pts)
Correct KindNames fact, reasoned judgment or speculation correctly for every statementOne statement misnamedSeveral misnamed or none named
ReasonsExplains how a fact could be checked, what findings a judgment rests on, or why a statement goes beyond the evidenceNames the kind with a weak reasonNo reasons
Old and New EvidenceUses Passage 5 accurately to show which parts of Wallace's case hold upUses Passage 5 for one problem onlyDoes not use Passage 5
Use of the TextExact quotations with paragraph numbersParaphrase where a quotation is asked forNo citations

05

Quiz: 20 Questions

Interactive, with answers

Instructions

Questions 1-9 use Passage 4 (Wallace on the climate of Mars), and questions 10-16 use Passage 5 (the modern article); both are printed in the Independent Practice phase of the lesson plan, with numbered paragraphs. Question 2 also uses Diagram 1, and questions 16-20 compare passages, including Passage 2 (in Direct Instruction). Your score updates as you answer, and Reset quiz clears everything so you can try again.

Multiple choice: pick an option to check it. Short answer: write your answer, then reveal the model answer.

0 of 20 answered · 0 correct

  1. Question 1 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    Passage 4, paragraph 1: "Quito, at 9350 ft. above the sea, has a mean temperature of about 57° F." What kind of statement is this?

  2. Question 2 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    Use Diagram 1. Which sentence from Passage 4 gets a "yes" at question 1 of the flowchart?

  3. Question 3 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    Wallace says Quito's 23° drop in temperature is "about a degree for each 400 feet." Which calculation shows that this follows from his numbers?

  4. Question 4 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    Passage 4, paragraph 1 ends: "this lower rate would bring the temperature of Mars at the equator down to 20° F. below the freezing point of water from this cause alone." What kind of statement is this?

  5. Question 5 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    Why does Wallace include footnote [17], "A four inches barometer is equivalent to a height of 40,000 feet above sea-level with us"?

  6. Question 6 of 20 · Short Answer

    Passage 4, paragraph 3 says that with an atmosphere like Earth's, Mars would reach "-31° F., equal to 63° below the freezing point." Show that -31° F is 63° below freezing, and explain whether the -31° F is a fact, a reasoned judgment or speculation.

  7. Question 7 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    Passage 4 ends: "It is therefore certain that the combined effect of both causes must bring the temperature of Mars down to at least 70° or 80°below the freezing point." What kind of statement is this?

  8. Question 8 of 20 · Short Answer

    Passage 4 begins: "Mr. Lowell never even discusses the essential point." Is this sentence about Lowell's book a fact, a reasoned judgment or speculation? Explain how a reader could check it, and whether checking could prove it wrong.

  9. Question 9 of 20 · Short Answer

    Wallace's conclusion in Passage 4 rests on two causes that lower the temperature of Mars. Name both causes, and for each one name the research finding he uses.

  10. Question 10 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    Passage 5, paragraph 1: "Mariner 4 flew past the planet that year, and Mariner 9 began mapping it from orbit in 1971." Why is this a fact and not speculation?

  11. Question 11 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    Passage 5, paragraph 1: "Scientists today explain the canals as an illusion." What kind of statement is this?

  12. Question 12 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    Passage 5, paragraph 3 says that "scientists have concluded that a lake filled the crater, on and off, for millions of years." What kind of statement is this, and what is it based on?

  13. Question 13 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    Passage 5, paragraph 4: "a few suggest that microbes could survive even today, deep underground." What kind of statement is this?

  14. Question 14 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    Which sentence from paragraph 4 of Passage 5 is a statement of fact?

  15. Question 15 of 20 · Short Answer

    Rewrite the statement "microbes could survive even today, deep underground" (Passage 5, paragraph 4) as a question that a future mission could test. Then describe a finding that would turn the answer into a reasoned judgment based on research findings.

  16. Question 16 of 20 · Short Answer

    Compare how Lowell (Passage 2, paragraph 1) and the author of Passage 5 (paragraph 4) handle the question of life on Mars. Which one keeps speculation clearly labeled, and how can you tell?

  17. Question 17 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    Passage 5 gives a measured average temperature of about -80 °F. How does this compare with Wallace's reasoned judgment in Passage 4 that Mars is "at least 70° or 80°below the freezing point"?

  18. Question 18 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    Wallace estimated the air of Mars at "one-twelfth (or at most one-seventh)" the density of Earth's air. What does Passage 5, paragraph 2 show about this estimate?

  19. Question 19 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    Lowell wrote that Mars being inhabited was "as certain" as anything (Passage 2). According to Passage 5, what happened to this speculation?

  20. Question 20 of 20 · Short Answer

    Passage 5, paragraph 2 says that liquid water "cannot last long on the surface today: in air that thin, it quickly boils away or freezes." This sentence builds on facts. Name the measured facts it depends on, and explain whether the sentence itself is a fact or a reasoned judgment.

0 of 20 answered · 0 correct

06

Frequently Asked Questions

10 Questions

What does RST.6-8.8 mean?

RST.6-8.8 asks students in grades 6-8 to distinguish among facts, reasoned judgments based on research findings, and speculation in science and technical texts. Students decide whether each statement reports something observed or measured, draws a conclusion from research, or goes beyond what the evidence can show.

What is the difference between a fact and a reasoned judgment?

A fact reports something observed or measured that others could check, such as a temperature reading. A reasoned judgment is a conclusion drawn from facts and findings, with the reasoning shown, such as a conclusion about a place no one has measured, worked out from measurements made elsewhere.

Is speculation bad in science?

No. New ideas and hypotheses begin as speculation, and scientists need them to decide what to test. The problem comes when speculation is presented as if it were proved, which is why readers need to recognize it.

Can a fact be wrong?

A statement of fact can be wrong, and that is what makes it a statement of fact: it can be checked. Lowell's diameter of Mars passes the check, while his area of 212,000,000 square miles fails it. Students should separate the kind of statement from whether it is true.

How is RST.6-8.8 different from RH.6-8.8?

RH.6-8.8, for history texts, asks students to distinguish fact, opinion and reasoned judgment. RST.6-8.8, for science texts, replaces opinion with speculation and ties reasoned judgment to research findings, because science writers reason from data and sometimes go beyond it.

How is RST.6-8.8 different from RST.9-10.8?

RST.9-10.8 asks students to assess how well the reasoning and evidence in a text support the author's claim. RST.6-8.8 comes first: students must be able to tell facts, reasoned judgments and speculation apart before they can weigh how well the evidence supports a claim.

Why use Lowell and Wallace for this standard?

The two books answer each other. Lowell mixes careful measurements with bold speculation, and Wallace answers with research findings and reasoned judgments, and even labels speculation himself. Students can check both authors against what spacecraft found later. Both books were published before 1930 and are in the public domain.

Is it a problem to teach from science texts that are out of date?

Not if the lesson says what has changed. Out-of-date texts are useful for this standard, because students can see which statements later research confirmed and which it overturned. The teacher note in Closure and the modern article in Passage 5 give today's findings.

Which words signal speculation in a science text?

Words such as "may," "might," "could," "perhaps," "possibly" and "suggest" often signal speculation. They are clues, not proof: writers sometimes state speculation with confident words such as "certain," so students should always ask what the statement rests on.

How is RST.6-8.8 assessed on this page?

The quiz and homework give students statements from the passages to classify, ask them to name the findings behind a judgment, check simple numbers the authors use, and compare the 1907 arguments with modern findings. Short answers are scored for the correct kind of statement, the reason and exact quotations.