MS-ESS3-2NGSS*ScienceEarth and Space ScienceGrades 6-8
MS-ESS3-2: Using Natural Hazard Data to Forecast Events and Reduce Their Effects
In plain English: MS-ESS3-2 is the NGSS middle school performance expectation that asks students to analyze data on natural hazards, such as their locations, sizes and how often they happen, to forecast future events and to choose technologies that reduce the damage. Students learn why eruptions and storms give warning signs but earthquakes do not. It is usually taught in grade 6, 7 or 8 Earth science.
Analyze and interpret data on natural hazards to forecast future catastrophic events and inform the development of technologies to mitigate their effects.
Clarification Statement: Emphasis is on how some natural hazards, such as volcanic eruptions and severe weather, are preceded by phenomena that allow for reliable predictions, but others, such as earthquakes, occur suddenly and with no notice, and thus are not yet predictable. Examples of natural hazards can be taken from interior processes (such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions), surface processes (such as mass wasting and tsunamis), or severe weather events (such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods). Examples of data can include the locations, magnitudes, and frequencies of the natural hazards. Examples of technologies can be global (such as satellite systems to monitor hurricanes or forest fires) or local (such as building basements in tornado-prone regions or reservoirs to mitigate droughts).
Next Generation Science Standards · Disciplinary Core Idea: Earth and Human Activity · Official standard
A natural hazard is a natural event, such as an earthquake, volcanic eruption, landslide, tsunami, hurricane, tornado or flood, that can harm people and property. In this lesson students analyze hazard data, the locations, sizes (magnitudes) and frequencies (how often events happen), to make forecasts, and they use those forecasts to choose technologies that mitigate (reduce) the effects. A forecast says what is likely to happen and roughly when, often as a chance; a precursor is a measurable sign that comes before an event. Students read invented monitoring data for a volcano, an earthquake record, a hurricane track, rainfall before landslides and tornado counts, and they test a building design on a shake table.
The NGSS Clarification Statement says: "Emphasis is on how some natural hazards, such as volcanic eruptions and severe weather, are preceded by phenomena that allow for reliable predictions, but others, such as earthquakes, occur suddenly and with no notice, and thus are not yet predictable. Examples of natural hazards can be taken from interior processes (such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions), surface processes (such as mass wasting and tsunamis), or severe weather events (such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods). Examples of data can include the locations, magnitudes, and frequencies of the natural hazards. Examples of technologies can be global (such as satellite systems to monitor hurricanes or forest fires) or local (such as building basements in tornado-prone regions or reservoirs to mitigate droughts)." MS-ESS3-2 has no official Assessment Boundary. Every number on this page comes from invented data sets, labeled as invented, except the official hurricane category ranges; the real events are described without statistics. Students do the practice of analyzing and interpreting data: they compute rates and averages, spot trends and precursors, and use the results to make a forecast or a design choice.
Learning Objectives
By the end of this lesson, students will be able to:
Analyze data on the locations, magnitudes and frequencies of natural hazards to find patterns
Use precursor data to forecast volcanic eruptions and severe weather, and explain why earthquakes cannot yet be predicted
Compute simple rates, averages and travel times from hazard data and use them in a forecast
Use data to choose and justify global technologies (such as satellites) and local technologies (such as basements and reservoirs) that reduce a hazard's effects
Prior Knowledge Required
Students should already be comfortable with:
Generating and comparing solutions that reduce the impacts of natural Earth processes on people 4-ESS3-2
Making a claim about the merit of a design that reduces a weather-related hazard 3-ESS3-1
Finding a rate, such as distance per hour, and an average 6.RP.A.3
Write two headlines on the board: "Hurricane expected to reach the coast Thursday" and "Earthquake expected Thursday." Ask students which headline they would trust.
Warm-Up Prompt
"Weather forecasters can tell you days ahead that a hurricane is coming. Why do you think no one can tell you the day of the next big earthquake? What would scientists need to measure to forecast each one?"
List student ideas in two columns. Keep the list: by the end of the lesson students sort which hazards give warning signs and which do not.
Direct Instruction15 minutes
Three kinds of hazards. Some hazards come from Earth's interior: earthquakes, when rock suddenly slips along a fault (a crack where rocks move past each other), and volcanic eruptions, when magma (melted rock) reaches the surface. Some come from surface processes: mass wasting, the downhill movement of soil and rock under gravity, such as landslides, and tsunamis, giant sea waves usually set off by undersea earthquakes. Others are severe weather: hurricanes, tornadoes and floods.
Forecasting. Volcanoes and severe weather have precursors. Before an eruption, rising magma sets off swarms of small earthquakes, makes the ground swell and releases more volcanic gas, such as sulfur dioxide. In 1991, scientists watching these signs at Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines warned officials, and tens of thousands of people were moved away before the huge eruption on June 15; the evacuation saved thousands of lives. Weather satellites and aircraft track hurricanes for days. Earthquakes are different: no reliable precursor has been found, so scientists can only say how often large earthquakes happen in a region, for example "about once every 30 years on average", which is a chance, not a date. Earthquake early warning systems detect an earthquake that has already started and send alerts seconds before strong shaking reaches places farther away; that is a warning, not a prediction.
Technologies. Global technologies, such as weather satellites, watch the whole planet for hurricanes and forest fires. Local technologies protect one place: basements and safe rooms in tornado regions, reservoirs (lakes made by dams that store water) to get through droughts, levees, buildings designed to sway without falling, and tsunami warning sirens.
Interior process: forecasting an eruption from precursors (Diagram 1)
Invented monitoring data for Mount Teller. Weekly average of small earthquakes per day: 2, 3, 5, 18, 60. Sulfur dioxide gas released: 100, 120, 300, 900 and 2,500 tonnes per day.
Result: Earthquakes rose from 2 to 60 per day: 60 / 2 = 30 times as many. Gas rose 2,500 / 100 = 25 times. Both precursors rise together, sharply in weeks 4 and 5, so magma is likely rising: forecast an eruption soon, raise the alert level and plan an evacuation.
Interior process: earthquake frequency and magnitude
An invented 50-year record for one region lists 480 earthquakes of magnitude 4.0-4.9, 52 of magnitude 5.0-5.9 and 5 of magnitude 6.0-6.9. Magnitude is a number for the size of an earthquake; each step of 1 means much stronger shaking.
Result: 480 / 52 is about 9 and 52 / 5 is about 10, so the count drops by a factor of about 10 for each whole-number increase in magnitude. Magnitude 6 or larger: 5 in 50 years = 0.1 per year, about once every 10 years on average. That is a forecast of how often, not a prediction of the date, so the region should build for shaking now.
Severe weather: a hurricane track forecast (Diagram 2)
Satellites show a hurricane 960 km from the coast, moving toward it at 20 km/h, with sustained winds (winds averaged over one minute) of 120 mph. On the Saffir-Simpson scale, Category 3 is 111-129 mph.
Result: Time to reach the coast = 960 km / 20 km/h = 48 hours. 120 mph is a Category 3 hurricane. Strong winds arrive hours before the center, and forecasters issue a hurricane watch about 48 hours before tropical-storm-force winds are expected, so a watch should already be in effect, and people have less than two days to secure homes and leave low areas.
Surface process: tsunami travel time
An undersea earthquake 2,800 km away sets off a tsunami. Over the deep ocean, the wave travels about 700 km/h. Pressure sensors on the deep-ocean floor sense the wave passing, and a buoy above them sends the data by satellite to warning centers.
Result: Travel time = 2,800 km / 700 km/h = 4 hours, enough time to sound sirens and move people to high ground. A tsunami from an earthquake close to shore can arrive in minutes, so people on the coast who feel strong shaking should move to high ground right away.
Local technology: a reservoir for a drought
Invented data: a town's reservoir holds 12,000,000 m³ of water when full, and the town uses 50,000 m³ per day. Records show dry spells in the region that last up to 8 months.
Result: 12,000,000 / 50,000 = 240 days, about 8 months, so a full reservoir just covers the longest dry spell on record. Cutting use by 20% to 40,000 m³ per day stretches it to 300 days, a safety margin.
After each example ask: "Which data made the forecast possible, and which technology does the forecast point to?" Return to the warm-up columns and move each hazard to "has warning signs" or "no reliable warning signs yet."
Guided Practice15 minutes
Pairs analyze an invented 10-year record from a hillside town where heavy rain sometimes sets off landslides. Each row is one storm day.
Rain and landslides in a hillside town (invented data)
Rain in 24 hours (mm)
40
65
85
95
110
130
160
Landslides reported
0
0
0
0
2
5
11
Make a bar graph of landslides against rainfall. Below what rainfall were there no landslides at all?
Write a forecast rule for the town: "When rain in 24 hours is forecast to be more than ___ mm, landslides are likely."
Which technology would put your rule to work? Think about rain gauges, weather forecasts and text alerts.
Name one local technology that reduces the damage on the slopes themselves, and explain how it works.
Independent Practice10-15 minutes
Each student analyzes an invented 20-year tornado record for one county and writes a short recommendation for the county's schools.
Tornadoes by month in one county, 20 years (invented data)
Month
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Tornadoes
1
2
6
14
22
12
4
2
1
2
3
1
Students find the total (70 tornadoes), the average per year (3.5) and the share in April through June (48 of 70, about 69%). They recommend when to hold tornado drills, and whether each school needs a basement or safe room, using the fact that tornado warnings often give only minutes of notice.
Closure5 minutes
Exit ticket: "Choose one hazard from today. Name one data set that helps forecast it, say how far ahead it can be forecast (days, hours, minutes or not at all), and name one technology that reduces its effects."
Differentiation Strategies
For Struggling Students
Give a sentence frame: "The data show ___ rising (or happening ___ times per year), so I forecast ___. A technology that helps is ___ because ___."
Pre-label graph axes and give the first two bars of each graph
Use a two-column card sort first: hazards with warning signs and hazards without
For Advanced Students
Ask students to compare the cost of building every house to resist magnitude 6 shaking with the cost of repairs, using the once-every-10-years rate from Example 2
Have students explain why the cone in Diagram 2 widens with time, and what data would make it narrower
Challenge: plan a data set that would test whether a proposed earthquake precursor really works, including how many earthquakes it would need
Assessment Guidance
What to Look For
Check that students use numbers from the data, such as a rate, a ratio or a travel time, in every forecast. Look for the difference between a forecast of how often (earthquakes) and a forecast of when (eruptions and storms). Listen for the misconception that a region is "due" for an earthquake on a certain date. Strong answers match each technology to the data that justify it, and say whether it is global or local.
02
Classroom Activities
3 Activities
1
Volcano Watch: Set the Alert Level
20 minGroups of 3-4
Groups play the role of a volcano observatory. They receive one data card per week for six weeks of invented monitoring at Mount Corrin and must choose an alert level after each card: Normal, Advisory, Watch or Warning, the four levels the U.S. Geological Survey uses for volcanoes.
Weekly Data Cards (invented)
Week 1: 1 small earthquake per day; ground uplift 0 mm since week 1; sulfur dioxide 80 tonnes per day.
Week 2: 2 per day; 1 mm; 90 tonnes per day.
Week 3: 2 per day; 2 mm; 85 tonnes per day.
Week 4: 7 per day; 10 mm; 400 tonnes per day.
Week 5: 25 per day; 32 mm; 1,200 tonnes per day.
Week 6: 80 per day; 70 mm; 3,000 tonnes per day.
Procedure
Graph all three measurements as the cards arrive. Before turning each new card, write the alert level and one sentence of evidence.
After week 6, the teacher reveals that the volcano erupted three days into week 7.
Compare your alert levels with other groups and with a sample key: Normal for weeks 1-3, Advisory in week 4, Watch in week 5 and Warning in week 6.
Discussion Questions
Week 4 is the first week in which all three measurements jumped. What does each jump suggest about the magma?
If your group waited for more data before raising the alert, what did you gain and what did you risk?
Why can't an earthquake fault be watched the same way?
Modification for Distance Learning
Release one card per day on the class page. Students post their alert level and evidence before the next card appears.
2
Shake Table Design Challenge
30 minGroups of 3
Groups build a small tower and test it on a hand-made shake table, then test a second version on a base that can roll. The activity links earthquake data (strong shaking will come, but not on a known date) to a local technology: buildings designed to survive shaking.
Procedure
Build a tower at least 30 cm tall from 10 index cards, 6 drinking straws and 50 cm of masking tape. Set a tape roll on top as a load.
Shake table: set the tower on a stiff cardboard base inside a shallow tray. One student holds the tray and moves it 5 cm back and forth, about twice per second, for 10 seconds. Repeat three times and record whether the tower stands.
Isolated base: put 2 round pencils (or 10 marbles) under the cardboard so it can roll on the tray, and repeat the same shaking of the tray.
Safety: keep marbles inside the tray so no one slips, and shake only by hand.
Sample Data (invented)
Eight groups, three trials each. Fixed base: towers stood in 6 of 24 trials. Rolling base: towers stood in 18 of 24 trials. Students compute the success rate for each (25% and 75%).
Discussion Questions
Why did the rolling base help? Which part of the shaking did it keep from reaching the tower?
Real buildings in earthquake regions use cross-bracing, flexible frames and base isolators. Which part of your design matched each idea?
Earthquakes cannot be predicted. Why does that make building design more important than evacuation plans for earthquakes?
Challenge Variation
Groups add a diagonal brace made from one straw, predict the new success rate, test it with three trials and explain the result.
3
Hazard Forecast Stations
25 minGroups of 3-4
Four stations each hold an invented data set for one hazard. At each station, groups answer the same three questions: Can this hazard be forecast? How far ahead? Which technology, global or local, reduces its effects? Groups rotate every 6 minutes.
Station Data (invented)
Station 1, hurricane: a storm 1,200 km offshore moving toward the coast at 25 km/h, with sustained winds of 100 mph.
Station 2, forest fire: a satellite detects a new hot spot covering 40 ha at noon and 160 ha at midnight, 10 km from a town.
Station 3, river flood: a river gauge reads 3.2 m, 3.9 m and 4.6 m at 6-hour intervals; the river overflows its banks at 6.0 m.
Station 4, tsunami: a deep-ocean buoy 1,500 km from an island records a passing wave after an undersea earthquake; the wave travels about 750 km/h.
Sample Answers
Station 1: about 48 hours (1,200 / 25), a Category 2 storm; satellites (global) and evacuation routes (local). Station 2: the burned area grew 4 times in 12 hours; satellites (global) and firebreaks around the town (local). Station 3: rising 0.7 m every 6 hours, so it reaches 6.0 m in about 12 more hours; levees or sandbags (local). Station 4: about 2 hours; buoys and satellites (global), sirens and marked routes to high ground (local).
Discussion Questions
Which station gave the longest warning time? Which gave the shortest?
At Station 3, what could make the river rise faster than the trend?
Which stations rely on a satellite? What would be lost without it?
Modification for Distance Learning
Put each station on a separate slide. Groups fill in a shared table with the three questions as columns.
03
Diagrams & Visual Aids
2 diagrams
Diagram 1: Small Earthquakes Before an Eruption (Invented Data)
The invented Mount Teller data from Example 1, drawn to scale. The number of small earthquakes per day climbs slowly, then sharply in weeks 4 and 5, a precursor of rising magma. Gas data (not shown) rise at the same time.
Diagram 2: A Hurricane Track Forecast (Invented Data)
The invented hurricane from Example 3, drawn to scale (see the 200 km bar). Dots show where the center is forecast to be every 12 hours at 20 km/h; it reaches the coast in about 48 hours. Each dashed circle shows how far off the forecast position could be at that time, and the cone joins the circles. The cone widens with time because forecasts further ahead are less certain.
04
Homework Assignment
~30 min
MS-ESS3-2 Homework: Forecasting Hazards and Choosing Technologies
Directions: All data sets are invented for practice. Show each calculation with units. For every forecast, name the data you used. For every technology, say whether it is global or local and how the data support it.
Part 1: Forecasting from Data (Problems 1-3)
Monitoring data for an invented volcano: small earthquakes per day over five weeks are 4, 4, 6, 15 and 41, and sulfur dioxide is 200, 210, 450, 1,300 and 3,200 tonnes per day. (a) By how many times did each measurement grow from week 1 to week 5? (b) In which week did both first rise sharply? (c) Write a forecast and say which alert level you would choose: Normal, Advisory, Watch or Warning.
An invented fault zone had earthquakes of magnitude 6 or larger in 1931, 1949, 1968, 1983, 2004 and 2019. (a) Find the time between each pair of earthquakes. (b) Find the average time between them. (c) A neighbor says the next one will come in 2037. Use the data to explain why that is a guess, not a prediction, and what the town should do instead.
Over the deep ocean, a tsunami travels about 720 km/h. (a) An undersea earthquake happens 3,600 km from a coastal town. How many hours of warning does the town have? (b) Another earthquake happens 60 km offshore. How many minutes does the town have? (c) Use your answers to explain why the town needs both a buoy warning system and a rule to move to high ground after strong shaking.
Part 2: Technologies to Reduce the Effects (Problems 4-6)
An invented town's reservoir holds 9,000,000 m³ when full, and the town uses 25,000 m³ of water per day. (a) How many days will a full reservoir last with no rain? (b) If the town cuts its use by 20%, how many days will it last? (c) The longest drought on record lasted 14 months. Is the reservoir big enough? Explain.
An invented county recorded 54 tornadoes in 30 years, and 36 of them happened in April, May and June. (a) What is the average number of tornadoes per year? (b) What percent happened in April through June? (c) Design a plan for a new school: when to hold drills, where students go, and why a basement or safe room is better than a plan to drive students away.
A satellite measures the area of an invented forest fire: 120 ha, 300 ha and 750 ha at 0, 12 and 24 hours. (a) By what factor does the area grow every 12 hours? (b) If the growth continues, what area do you forecast at 36 hours? (c) Explain how satellite data help fire crews decide where to work, and name one local technology that protects a town near the fire.
Rubric
Criterion
Full Credit (2 pts)
Partial Credit (1 pt)
Data Analysis
Correct rates, averages, ratios or travel times with units
Correct method with one calculation or unit error
Forecast
Forecast names the data used and says how far ahead or how often
Forecast given without data, or confuses how often with when
Technology
Technology matched to the hazard and to the data, labeled global or local
Technology named but not linked to the data
05
Quiz: 20 Questions
Interactive, with answers
Instructions
All data sets are invented. Some questions ask you to calculate, others to interpret data or choose a technology. Your score updates as you answer, and Reset quiz clears everything so you or your students can try again.
Multiple choice: pick an option to check it. Short answer: write your answer, then reveal the model answer.
0 of 20 answered · 0 correct
Question 1 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Which natural hazard cannot yet be reliably predicted, because it happens suddenly with no known warning signs?
Answer: C
Earthquakes strike without a reliable precursor, so scientists can forecast only how often they happen. Choice B is wrong: rising magma gives signs such as small earthquakes, swelling and gas. Choices A and D are severe weather events that satellites, radar and rain gauges track ahead of time.
Question 2 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Which set of data would best help scientists forecast a volcanic eruption?
Answer: A
Rising magma causes swarms of small earthquakes, swells the ground and releases more gas, so these precursors change in the days to weeks before an eruption. Choice B shows how often eruptions happen, but not when the next one will. Choice C measures weather and the sea, which magma does not control.
Question 3 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Small earthquakes under a volcano rise from 3 per day to 45 per day in one month. How many times as many earthquakes per day is that?
Answer: B
45 / 3 = 15, so there are 15 times as many. Choice A subtracts (45 - 3) instead of dividing. Choice C adds the two numbers. Choice D multiplies them.
Question 4 of 20 · Multiple Choice
An invented region had 60 earthquakes of magnitude 5 or larger in 30 years. On average, how many happen per year?
Answer: D
60 earthquakes / 30 years = 2 per year. Choice A divides the years by the earthquakes (30 / 60). Choice B is the total, not the rate per year. Choice C adds 60 and 30.
Question 5 of 20 · Multiple Choice
An invented 20-year record shows 900 earthquakes of magnitude 3, 95 of magnitude 4 and 9 of magnitude 5. Which pattern do the data show?
Answer: A
900 / 95 is about 9.5 and 95 / 9 is about 10.6, so each magnitude is about one tenth as common as the one below it. Choice B reverses the pattern. Choice D underestimates the drop: going from 900 to 95 is far more than halving.
Question 6 of 20 · Multiple Choice
A tsunami crosses the deep ocean at about 720 km/h. It starts 1,800 km from an island. About how long will it take to reach the island?
Answer: C
Time = distance / speed = 1,800 / 720 = 2.5 hours. Choice A divides the speed by the distance (720 / 1,800). Choice B divides by 72 instead of 720, a dropped zero.
Question 7 of 20 · Multiple Choice
A hurricane has sustained winds of 140 mph. On the Saffir-Simpson scale (Category 3: 111-129 mph, Category 4: 130-156 mph, Category 5: 157 mph or more), what category is it?
Answer: B
140 mph falls in the Category 4 range of 130-156 mph. Choice A would need winds below 130 mph. Choice C would need at least 157 mph.
Question 8 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Which technology is a global technology for monitoring hurricanes?
Answer: D
Weather satellites watch storms over whole oceans and send images every few minutes, so they work on a global scale. Choices A, B and C are local technologies that protect or monitor one place.
Question 9 of 20 · Multiple Choice
A region often has long droughts. Which local technology best reduces their effect on the water supply?
Answer: A
A reservoir stores water during wet seasons so the town can use it when rain stops. Choice B monitors weather but stores no water. Choice D records earthquakes, a different hazard.
Question 10 of 20 · Multiple Choice
A hurricane is 600 km from the coast and moving toward it at 15 km/h. About how long until its center reaches the coast?
Answer: B
Time = 600 km / 15 km/h = 40 hours. Choice D multiplies the distance by the speed. Choice C adds the two numbers. Choice A divides by 150 instead of 15, a misplaced zero.
Question 11 of 20 · Multiple Choice
An invented record shows landslides on hillside roads only on days with more than 100 mm of rain in 24 hours. Which plan uses these data best?
Answer: C
The data show a rainfall threshold, so an alert tied to forecast rain above 100 mm warns people before landslides are likely. Choice A ignores the data and closes roads on safe days. Choice B acts too late to protect anyone. Choice D uses clouds, which the data never linked to landslides.
Question 12 of 20 · Multiple Choice
A region has had a magnitude 7 earthquake about every 150 years on average. The last one was 140 years ago. Which statement is best supported?
Answer: D
An average time between earthquakes is a long-term rate. Real gaps vary a lot, so the next earthquake could come sooner or later. Choice A treats the average as a schedule. Choice B treats the average as a minimum waiting time and also ignores that 140 years have already passed. Choice C misreads the data: the average has not passed.
Question 13 of 20 · Multiple Choice
In a town, tornado warnings often come only a few minutes before a tornado hits. Which design best protects people?
Answer: A
With only minutes of warning, people need shelter close by, such as a basement or safe room. Choice B fails because there is not enough time to drive away safely. Choice C protects against drought, not tornadoes.
Question 14 of 20 · Multiple Choice
Why can scientists often forecast volcanic eruptions but not earthquakes?
Answer: B
Magma moving up causes measurable precursors (small earthquakes, swelling and gas). Faults usually slip without a reliable warning sign. Choice A is false: eruptions do not follow schedules. Choice C is false: many earthquake zones are full of instruments.
Question 15 of 20 · Short Answer
Ground swelling at the top of an invented volcano is 2, 2, 3, 9 and 25 mm per week over five weeks. Describe the trend and say what it suggests. What other data would you check before raising the alert level?
The swelling was steady for three weeks, then rose sharply (9 mm, then 25 mm, more than 8 times week 3). This suggests magma is pushing up under the volcano. Before raising the alert, check the number of small earthquakes and the gas output: if they rise too, an eruption is more likely.
Question 16 of 20 · Short Answer
A river rose above flood stage in 8 of the last 40 years. On average, how often does it flood? Does this mean a flood next year is certain? Explain.
8 floods / 40 years = 1 flood every 5 years on average, or about a 20% chance in any one year. A flood next year is not certain: floods can come two years in a row or not for ten years. The data give a chance, so the town should plan for floods every year.
Question 17 of 20 · Short Answer
A town on a river is choosing between raising its levees and building a reservoir upstream. Name one criterion for comparing them and one piece of data you would need.
Sample answer: criterion, how many homes stay dry in the largest flood on record. Data needed: river height and flow during past floods, compared with the levee height or the amount of water the reservoir can hold. A reservoir can also store water for droughts, which a levee cannot.
Question 18 of 20 · Short Answer
Strong shaking from an earthquake spreads at about 3.5 km/s. A city is 70 km from where the earthquake starts. An early warning system detects the earthquake and sends an alert 5 seconds after it starts. How many seconds of warning does the city get? Is this a prediction?
Shaking reaches the city in 70 / 3.5 = 20 s. The alert comes at 5 s, so the city gets 20 - 5 = 15 seconds of warning. It is not a prediction: the earthquake has already started, and the system only warns places that the shaking has not reached yet.
Question 19 of 20 · Short Answer
An invented county recorded 48 tornadoes in 30 years, and 30 of them happened between April and June. Find the average per year and the percent in April through June. When should schools hold tornado drills?
48 / 30 = 1.6 tornadoes per year. 30 / 48 = 62.5% in April through June. Schools should hold drills before and during spring, for example in March and April, while still keeping a plan all year because tornadoes happen in other months too.
Question 20 of 20 · Short Answer
Explain how weather satellites help people prepare for both hurricanes and forest fires.
Satellites watch huge areas all the time. For hurricanes, they show where a storm is, how big it is and which way it moves, so forecasters can predict its track days ahead. For fires, they detect hot spots and measure how fast the burned area grows, so crews and towns know where to work and when to evacuate.
0 of 20 answered · 0 correct
06
Frequently Asked Questions
10 Questions
What does MS-ESS3-2 mean?
MS-ESS3-2 asks students to analyze data on natural hazards to forecast future events and to guide technologies that reduce the damage. Students work with the locations, sizes and frequencies of hazards such as earthquakes, eruptions, landslides, tsunamis, hurricanes, tornadoes and floods. The code means Middle School, Earth and Space Science, core idea 3 (Earth and Human Activity), performance expectation 2.
What is the difference between a forecast and a prediction?
A prediction names when and where an event will happen; a forecast says what is likely, often as a chance or a range. Weather and eruption forecasts can be close to predictions because precursors give warning. Earthquake forecasts give only how often large earthquakes happen in a region.
Can scientists predict earthquakes?
No. Scientists can say how often large earthquakes happen in a region and where they are likely, but not the day or the year. Earthquake early warning systems send alerts only after an earthquake has started, giving seconds of notice before strong shaking arrives.
Does MS-ESS3-2 have an assessment boundary?
No. NGSS lists no Assessment Boundary for MS-ESS3-2. The Clarification Statement stresses that some hazards, like eruptions and severe weather, have precursors that allow reliable predictions, while earthquakes do not yet.
What kinds of data do students use for natural hazards?
The Clarification Statement names locations, magnitudes and frequencies. In practice that means maps of where events happened, tables of sizes (earthquake magnitude, hurricane category), counts per year or per month, and monitoring readings such as earthquakes per day under a volcano.
What are examples of technologies that reduce hazard effects?
Global examples are weather satellites that track hurricanes and detect forest fires, and networks of ocean buoys for tsunamis. Local examples are basements and safe rooms in tornado regions, reservoirs for droughts, levees for floods and buildings designed to survive shaking.
What math do students need for MS-ESS3-2?
Students need rates and averages (events per year, distance per hour), ratios (how many times larger), percents and simple graphs. All of it is grade 6-7 math, so the lesson fits any middle school grade.
Why do hazard forecasts have a cone or a range?
Forecasts further ahead are less certain, so forecasters show a range of likely outcomes. The hurricane cone shows where the storm's center will probably be, and it widens with time. It does not show how big the storm is.
What is a common misconception about natural hazards?
A common one is that a place is "due" for an earthquake or a flood because the average time has passed. Averages describe long-term rates; events can come early, late or close together, so communities need to be ready at any time.
How does MS-ESS3-2 connect to other standards?
It builds on 3-ESS3-1 and 4-ESS3-2, where students compare designs that reduce hazard impacts. It leads to HS-ESS3-1, which explains how natural hazards have shaped where people live, and it pairs with the engineering design work of MS-ETS1-1.
07
Related Standards
5 standards
These standards connect to MS-ESS3-2: prerequisites to review first, parallel standards at the same level, and next steps that build on it.
Before this lesson
4-ESS3-2Prerequisite
Generate and compare solutions that reduce the impacts of natural Earth processes
Lesson coming soon
3-ESS3-1Prerequisite
Make a claim about a design that reduces the impacts of a weather-related hazard
Lesson coming soon
Alongside
MS-ESS2-2Parallel
Explain how geoscience processes have changed Earth's surface at many scales
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