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HSS.IC.B.3Common CoreMathStatistics and ProbabilityGrades 9-12

HSS.IC.B.3: Sample Surveys, Experiments and Observational Studies

In plain English: HSS.IC.B.3 is the Common Core statistics standard that asks students to tell sample surveys, experiments and observational studies apart by purpose and design, and to explain what randomization does in each: random selection lets a survey speak for a population, and random assignment lets an experiment show cause and effect. It is usually taught in Algebra II or Statistics.

Recognize the purposes of and differences among sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies; explain how randomization relates to each.

Common Core State Standards for Mathematics · Domain: Making Inferences and Justifying Conclusions (IC) · Cluster: Make inferences and justify conclusions from sample surveys, experiments, and observational studies
Also written as HSS-IC.B.3 or S-IC.3 · Official standard

01

Lesson Plan

65-70 min

Overview

Statistical studies answer different kinds of questions, and the kind of question decides the design. A sample survey estimates something about a population, such as the proportion of students who favor a later start time. An experiment tests whether a treatment causes a change, such as whether a study method raises quiz scores. An observational study examines a relationship as it happens, without assigning anything, such as whether students who play a sport have different grades from those who do not.

The lesson centers on randomization, which plays a different role in each design. Random selection makes a sample representative, so its results can be generalized to the population. Random assignment makes treatment groups alike in everything except the treatment, so a difference in results can be attributed to the treatment. Observational studies can use random selection but not random assignment, which is why they show association and not causation.

Learning Objectives

By the end of this lesson, students will be able to:

  • State the purpose of a sample survey, an experiment and an observational study
  • Classify a study as a sample survey, an experiment or an observational study and justify the choice
  • Explain the difference between random selection and random assignment, and which design uses each
  • Carry out random selection and random assignment with a random digit table or random number generator
  • Decide what conclusion a study supports: generalization to a population, cause and effect, or association only

Prior Knowledge Required

Students should already be comfortable with:

  • Using a random sample to make inferences about a population 7.SP.A.1
  • Populations, parameters, samples and statistics HSS.IC.A.1
  • The difference between correlation and causation HSS.ID.C.9
  • Computing means and proportions

Lesson Procedure

65-70 minutes of class time across 5 phases.

  1. Warm-Up10 minutes

    Show the headline and ask students to write two ways a researcher could have produced it:

    Warm-Up Prompt

    "A headline says: 'Teens who eat breakfast get better grades.' Describe one way researchers might have collected the data. Based on your description, could they say that eating breakfast causes better grades? What would they have to do differently to find out?"

    Students typically describe asking teens about breakfast and grades. Ask what else might differ between teens who eat breakfast and those who don't (sleep, family routines, time to get ready). Some students will suggest making one group eat breakfast; name that idea as an experiment. Tell the class that today's lesson sorts studies into three kinds and explains what each kind is allowed to conclude.

  2. Direct Instruction20 minutes

    Introduce the three designs with Diagram 1, then the summary table. Stress the question to ask first: did the researcher impose a treatment? If yes, it is an experiment. If no, it is a sample survey (when the goal is to estimate a population value) or an observational study (when the goal is to compare groups or relate variables as they occur).

    The three study designs and the role of randomization
    DesignPurposeRandomization usedWhat it allows
    Sample surveyEstimate a population value (a proportion or mean)Random selection of who is asked or measuredGeneralizing from the sample to the population
    ExperimentDecide whether a treatment causes a change in a responseRandom assignment of subjects to treatmentsA cause-and-effect conclusion for the subjects
    Observational studyDescribe a relationship without influencing itRandom selection when possible; no random assignmentEvidence of an association, not causation
    • Sample survey

      The student council wants the proportion of the school's 1,500 students who favor a later start time. It randomly selects 120 names from the enrollment list, and 78 of those students favor the change.

      Equation: p̂ = 78/120 = 0.65. Random selection lets the council estimate that about 65% of the school's students favor a later start.

    • Experiment

      Thirty student volunteers are randomly assigned, 15 to study vocabulary with a flashcard app and 15 with a printed list. The app group's mean quiz score is 17.2 and the list group's is 15.6.

      Equation: Difference 17.2 - 15.6 = 1.6 points. Random assignment made the groups alike except for the method, so a difference larger than chance would explain points to the app as the cause, for students like these volunteers.

    • Observational study

      From school records, a researcher compares 85 varsity athletes with 140 students who play no sport. The athletes' mean GPA is 3.3; the others' is 3.1.

      Equation: Difference 3.3 - 3.1 = 0.2. Nobody was assigned to play, so other variables (time management, family support, eligibility rules) could explain it: association, not causation.

    • Choosing a design

      Match each question to a design: (a) What percent of a city's voters approve of the mayor? (b) Does a new fertilizer increase tomato yield? (c) Do teens who sleep less have lower grades?

      Equation: (a) sample survey; (b) experiment; (c) observational study, because assigning teens to sleep less would be unethical.

    • Carrying out random selection

      Choose 4 of 60 students labeled 01-60, using the random digit line 81 47 03 47 92 15 66 38 29 54. Skip numbers above 60 and repeats.

      Equation: Selected: 47, 03, 15, 38 (skip 81, the repeated 47, 92 and 66).

    Use Diagram 2 to separate the two kinds of randomization. Random selection answers "who is in the study?" and supports generalizing. Random assignment answers "who gets which treatment?" and supports cause and effect. An experiment on volunteers uses assignment but not selection, so its causal conclusion applies to subjects like the volunteers; a survey uses selection but has no treatments, so it cannot show causation.

  3. Guided Practice15 minutes

    Pairs classify each study, name the randomization it uses, and state the strongest conclusion it allows. Discuss each one before moving on.

    • A cell phone company randomly selects 400 of its customers and asks how satisfied they are with their service. (Sample survey; random selection; estimate for all customers.)
    • A physical therapist randomly assigns 36 patients with knee injuries to two stretching routines and measures recovery time. (Experiment; random assignment; the routine can be the cause of a difference.)
    • Researchers compare the reading scores of children who attended preschool with those who did not, using a random sample of district records. (Observational study; random selection only; association.)
    • A teacher lets students choose whether to use a practice website, then compares test scores of users and non-users. (Observational study, even though it compares groups: the students chose, so motivated students may be over-represented among users.)
    • A food scientist randomly assigns 50 tasters to try one of two recipes and rate them. (Experiment.)

    Listen for students who label any comparison of two groups an experiment. Ask, "Who decided which group each person was in?"

  4. Independent Practice15 minutes

    Question for students: does listening to music while doing homework affect accuracy? Tasks: (1) Describe an observational study that could explore the question and one weakness of it. (2) Describe an experiment with 24 volunteers labeled 01-24. (3) Use the random digit line 19 04 88 31 12 04 23 07 56 15 02 19 10 21 44 08 17 93 14 06 to assign 12 volunteers to the music group, skipping numbers above 24 and repeats. (Answer: 19, 04, 12, 23, 07, 15, 02, 10, 21, 08, 17, 14; the other 12 form the no-music group.) (4) Explain what random assignment protects against in your experiment. (5) Explain why a survey that asks students whether they listen to music could not answer the question.

  5. Closure5-10 minutes

    Exit ticket: (1) Name the design that can show cause and effect, and the kind of randomization that makes it possible. (2) A study compares the health of people who chose to become vegetarians with that of people who did not. What kind of study is it, and why can't it prove that diet causes the difference? (3) Give an example of a question best answered by a sample survey.

Differentiation Strategies

For Struggling Students

  • Give a two-question flowchart: Did the researcher impose a treatment? If not, is the goal to estimate a population value or to compare groups as they are?
  • Color-code the two kinds of randomization on every example: one color for random selection, another for random assignment
  • Start classification practice with studies that name the groups explicitly before moving to studies described in a news-story style

For Advanced Students

  • Introduce blocking: design an experiment on a study method that first separates students by grade level, then randomly assigns within each grade, and explain the benefit
  • Ask students to explain why a double-blind design matters in an experiment on an energy drink, and what it adds to random assignment
  • Have students find a news article about a health study, classify it, and judge whether the headline's wording matches the design

Assessment Guidance

What to Look For

The key discriminator is whether the researcher imposed a treatment: students should use it to separate experiments from observational studies, and should not call a study an experiment just because it compares two groups. Look for precise language about randomization: "random selection" for who is studied and "random assignment" for who gets which treatment. Strong answers match the conclusion to the design: estimates for a population from a random sample, cause and effect only from random assignment, and association only from observational data.

02

Classroom Activities

3 Activities

1

Study-Type Card Sort

20 minGroups of 3-4

Groups sort 9 study cards into three columns (sample survey, experiment, observational study), then add the randomization each study uses and the conclusion it supports.

The 9 Cards

  • A newspaper randomly selects 800 registered voters in the state and asks which candidate they prefer (survey)
  • A school randomly chooses 50 of its laptops and records their battery health (survey)
  • A park service randomly selects 200 visitors at the entrance and asks how far they traveled (survey)
  • Forty volunteers are randomly assigned to drink water or a sports drink before a 1-mile run, and their times are compared (experiment)
  • A farmer randomly assigns 20 plots of a field to two irrigation schedules and measures the corn harvested (experiment)
  • A teacher randomly assigns half of her four classes to receive quizzes on paper and half online, then compares scores (experiment, with classes as the units)
  • Researchers compare asthma rates of children living near highways with those living farther away (observational)
  • A study follows 1,000 randomly selected adults for 10 years and records how much coffee each drinks and whether they develop heart disease (observational)
  • A coach compares the injury rates of players who chose to do a warm-up routine with those who skipped it (observational)

Procedure

  • Sort the cards and write on each: who decided the groups, if there are groups, and whether randomization was used for selection, assignment or neither
  • For each observational card, name one variable that could explain the relationship other than the one being studied
  • For one observational card, rewrite it as an experiment, or explain why an experiment would be unethical or impractical

Modification for Distance Learning

Put the cards on a shared slide with three drop zones. Groups drag the cards in a breakout room and add sticky notes with their reasons.

2

Does Random Assignment Balance the Groups?

20 minGroups of 4

Before running an experiment on whether a 5-minute breathing exercise before a quiz improves scores, the class checks whether random assignment makes the two groups alike on a variable that could matter: hours of sleep last night.

Procedure

  • Each student writes last night's hours of sleep on an index card (or use the invented set below for a class of 20)
  • Shuffle the cards and deal them into two groups of equal size. Compute each group's mean hours of sleep and the difference
  • Repeat the shuffle 4 more times and record the 5 differences on the board
  • Discuss what would happen if students chose their own group, for example if well-rested students were more willing to try something new

Teacher Key for the Invented Data

Invented sleep hours for 20 students, numbered 1-20: 6, 7.5, 8, 5.5, 7, 9, 6.5, 7, 8.5, 6, 7, 7.5, 5, 8, 6.5, 7, 9.5, 6, 7.5, 8 (mean 7.15 hours). One random split put students 1, 2, 6, 7, 10, 12, 16, 17, 18, 20 in group A: mean 7.30 hours, versus 7.00 for group B, a difference of 0.3. Four more random splits gave differences of 0.2, -0.1, -0.2, -0.6. The differences are small and change sign, so no group is favored on average.

Discussion Questions

  • Random assignment did not make the group means exactly equal. Why is it still useful?
  • Sleep is one variable you measured. What about variables you did not measure?
  • How would bigger groups change the size of the differences?
3

One Question, Three Studies

25 minGroups of 3

Each group gets one question and designs all three kinds of study for it, then presents which design best answers the question and why. The activity makes the purpose of each design concrete.

Questions to Assign

  • Is using a phone in the hour before bed related to how long teens sleep?
  • Does a short video lesson help students learn to solve a type of puzzle faster than a written explanation?
  • What proportion of the school's students would use a new after-school tutoring room?
  • Are students who take music lessons more likely to take an advanced math class?

Procedure

  • For your question, describe a sample survey, an observational study and an experiment. For each, say who is studied, how randomization is used and what could be concluded
  • Mark any design that would be unethical or impractical and explain why
  • Choose the design that best fits the question and present it in 2 minutes
  • Other groups score each presentation on a checklist: correct design names, correct randomization, conclusion matches design

Challenge Variation

Groups add a second version of their experiment that uses blocking (for example, by grade level) and explain when blocking gives a clearer comparison than complete randomization.

03

Diagrams & Visual Aids

2 diagrams

Diagram 1: Three Kinds of Statistical Study

Sample survey Experiment Observational study Purpose Estimate a population value Test whether a treatment causes an effect Explore a relationship as it occurs Researcher action No treatment: ask or measure Researcher imposes treatments No treatment: observe groups Role of randomization Random selection of the sample Random assignment to treatments Random selection if possible; no assignment Conclusion it supports Generalize to the population Cause and effect (for the subjects) Association only, not causation
Each design has its own purpose and its own use of randomization. Only an experiment imposes treatments, and only random assignment supports a cause-and-effect conclusion. Random selection is what lets a sample survey, or an observational study that uses it, speak for a larger population.

Diagram 2: Random Selection Versus Random Assignment

Random selection (surveys, and observational studies when possible) Population all 1,500 students Random sample 120 chosen by chance Conclusion about the population Random assignment (experiments) 40 volunteers the subjects Random assignment Group 1: 20 subjects new treatment Group 2: 20 subjects control or old method Compare responses Selection decides who is studied; assignment decides who gets which treatment.
Top: random selection chooses who is studied, here 120 of the school's 1,500 students, so results generalize to the population. Bottom: random assignment splits 40 volunteers into two groups of 20 to receive different treatments, so a difference in responses can be attributed to the treatment.

04

Homework Assignment

~30 min

HSS.IC.B.3 Homework: Surveys, Experiments and Observational Studies

Directions: For every study, name the design, say what randomization it uses (random selection, random assignment, both or neither) and state the strongest conclusion it supports. Show your work for any computation. All data are invented for practice.

Part 1: Purposes and Differences (Problems 1-3)

  1. Classify each study as a sample survey, an experiment or an observational study, and name the randomization it uses. (a) A city randomly selects 500 households from its utility records and asks how many people live in each, to estimate mean household size. (b) A botanist randomly assigns 24 pepper plants to two watering schedules and measures the weight of peppers each produces. (c) Researchers review the records of 2,000 randomly chosen adults and compare the heart health of those who drink coffee daily with those who do not.
  2. A school district wants to know whether a new after-school tutoring program raises algebra test scores. One board member suggests comparing the scores of students who signed up for the program with those who did not. Explain why this is an observational study, what could go wrong with its conclusion, and how an experiment would answer the question better.
  3. A town randomly selects 250 of its 5,000 adult residents and asks whether they would use a proposed bus line; 95 say yes. (a) Compute the sample proportion and estimate the number of adult residents who would use the bus line. (b) What role did randomization play? (c) Could this survey show that building the bus line would reduce traffic? Explain.

Part 2: Randomization in Practice (Problems 4-6)

  1. Sixteen volunteers, labeled 01-16, will test a new sunscreen against a standard one. (a) Use the random digit line 07 22 13 07 19 02 15 11 04 16 09 30 01 to choose 8 volunteers for the new sunscreen, skipping numbers above 16 and repeats. (b) Why is this better than letting volunteers choose which sunscreen to use?
  2. In a random sample of 300 adults, the 120 who walk at least 30 minutes a day have a mean resting heart rate of 68 beats per minute, and the 180 who do not have a mean of 74. (a) What is the difference in means? (b) Is this a survey, an experiment or an observational study? (c) Can we conclude that walking lowers heart rate? Name a variable that could explain the difference. (d) What does the random selection of the 300 adults allow?
  3. A student wants to know whether chewing gum during a test improves scores. (a) Design an experiment with 40 volunteers: describe the treatments, how you would randomly assign them and what you would measure. (b) Explain why a survey asking students whether they chew gum and what grades they get could not answer the question.

Rubric

CriterionFull Credit (2 pts)Partial Credit (1 pt)No Credit (0 pts)
Identifying the DesignEvery study classified correctly with a reasonMost classified correctly or reasons missingMostly incorrect
Role of RandomizationRandom selection and random assignment named correctly and explainedRandomization named but roles confusedRandomization missing or incorrect
ConclusionsEvery conclusion matches the design (population, cause, or association)One conclusion overstatedCausal claims from non-experiments
Carrying Out and DesigningCorrect selection from the digit line and a complete experimental designMinor error in selection or designMissing or incorrect

05

Quiz: 20 Questions

Interactive, with answers

Instructions

Answer each question, then read the explanation. Your score updates as you go, and Reset quiz clears everything so you or your students can try again.

Multiple choice: pick an option to check it. Short answer: write your answer, then reveal the model answer.

0 of 20 answered · 0 correct

  1. Question 1 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    Which of these studies is an experiment?

  2. Question 2 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    What is the main purpose of a sample survey?

  3. Question 3 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    Researchers track 1,200 adults for 15 years, recording how often each eats fish and whether each develops memory problems. They find that frequent fish eaters had fewer memory problems. What kind of study is this?

  4. Question 4 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    In an experiment, what is the purpose of random assignment?

  5. Question 5 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    In a sample survey, how is randomization used?

  6. Question 6 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    A well-designed observational study finds that people who own a dog have lower blood pressure on average. What conclusion is justified?

  7. Question 7 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    An experiment randomly assigns 50 volunteers from one high school to two study methods and finds a clear difference in scores. To whom does the cause-and-effect conclusion apply?

  8. Question 8 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    Why do researchers use observational studies, not experiments, to study whether heavy teen smartphone use is linked to anxiety?

  9. Question 9 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    An observational study finds that students who eat lunch in the cafeteria have higher attendance than students who leave campus. Which is a possible confounding variable?

  10. Question 10 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    Students are labeled 01-40. Using the random digit line 33 05 71 05 18 64 29, and skipping numbers above 40 and repeats, which 3 students are selected?

  11. Question 11 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    A county randomly selects 400 of its 8,000 households, and 148 of them have a home garden. What is the best estimate of the number of households in the county with a home garden?

  12. Question 12 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    Which design best answers the question "Does a new reading app increase reading speed for ninth graders?"

  13. Question 13 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    Which study uses both random selection and random assignment?

  14. Question 14 of 20 · Multiple Choice

    A study compares the grades of students who chose to join a school's robotics club with those of students who did not, and finds higher math grades among club members. Which statement is correct?

  15. Question 15 of 20 · Short Answer

    A company randomly selects 60 of its 900 employees and asks how many days a week they work from home. Classify the study, state its purpose, and explain the role of randomization.

  16. Question 16 of 20 · Short Answer

    Thirty volunteer runners will test whether a new running shoe lowers their 5K times compared with their usual shoes. Describe how to carry out the random assignment and explain why it matters.

  17. Question 17 of 20 · Short Answer

    Explain the difference between random selection and random assignment. Which kind of study uses each, and what conclusion does each one support?

  18. Question 18 of 20 · Short Answer

    A news story reports: "Students who take music lessons score higher on math tests." The data came from school records. Explain what kind of study this is and why the headline should not say that music lessons cause higher scores.

  19. Question 19 of 20 · Short Answer

    In an experiment, 24 volunteers were randomly assigned to take a 10-minute walk or to sit for 10 minutes before a memory test. The walking group's mean score was 14.5 and the sitting group's was 12.0. Compute the difference and state what the experiment can show if the difference is larger than chance would explain.

  20. Question 20 of 20 · Short Answer

    A random sample of 500 adults is asked two questions: how many days a week they exercise and how stressed they feel. Those who exercise more report less stress. Is this a survey, an observational study or both? Can it show that exercise reduces stress?

0 of 20 answered · 0 correct

06

Frequently Asked Questions

10 Questions

What does HSS.IC.B.3 mean?

It means students can tell sample surveys, experiments and observational studies apart and explain what randomization does in each. A survey estimates a population value, an experiment tests whether a treatment causes an effect, and an observational study describes a relationship without intervening.

What is the easiest way to tell an experiment from an observational study?

Ask whether the researcher imposed a treatment. If the researcher decided who got which treatment, it is an experiment. If the subjects already differed, or chose their own group, it is an observational study, even if two groups are compared.

What is the difference between a census and a sample survey?

A census collects data from every member of the population; a sample survey collects data from part of it. A census is often too slow or costly for a large population, and a well-chosen random sample can estimate a population value closely, with a known amount of chance error.

How can students carry out random assignment without technology?

Write each subject's name or number on identical slips, mix them in a bag, and draw half for the first treatment. A random digit table also works: label the subjects, read the digits in groups, and skip repeats and unused labels, as in the lesson's examples. Flipping a coin for each subject is random too, but it can produce groups of unequal size.

Can an observational study ever show cause and effect?

Not on its own. Without random assignment, a confounding variable could explain the relationship. Strong, repeated observational evidence, with a plausible mechanism and confounders measured and accounted for, can make a causal explanation convincing, but a single observational study shows association.

Why not always run an experiment?

Some treatments would be unethical to impose (such as smoking), impractical (such as where people live) or impossible (such as a person's age). For those questions, researchers use observational studies and interpret the results carefully.

Is HSS.IC.B.3 taught in Algebra 2 or Statistics?

It is usually taught in Algebra II or an introductory Statistics course, and in Math III in integrated pathways. It follows HSS.IC.A.1 on random samples and prepares students for HSS.IC.B.4 and HSS.IC.B.5, which use data from surveys and experiments.

What mistakes do students make on this standard?

A common one is calling any comparison of two groups an experiment. Others include confusing random selection with random assignment, claiming causation from an observational study, and thinking a large sample fixes the lack of random assignment.

What is a control group, and does every experiment need one?

A control group gives a baseline for comparison: it receives no treatment, a placebo or the current method. Every experiment needs some comparison, but it can be between two real treatments, such as two study methods, instead of a treatment and no treatment.

Is this on the SAT?

Related ideas can appear in the Problem-Solving and Data Analysis domain of the digital SAT, for example a question asking what conclusion a study's design supports, or whether results can be generalized. Knowing the roles of random selection and random assignment is the key idea.